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Past Results

Catalysts whose event has now passed.

Sell The News

Win rate73%Risk management used: - Risk to Reward: 2 : (2 or more) - Long the positive calls, short the negative ones, both from Close price before the news Win rate by direction: - Positive calls: 75% (15 of 20) - Negative calls: 50% (1 of 2)16 of 22 traded cards · 1 left outCards which contain: Cards that never reached +2%, and Cards that never reached −2%.

45 cards

Showing 45 of 45 cards.

When the event is expected. Shown in your own time zone, or in UTC if you switch the clock at the top of the page. If the exact hour is not confirmed, you only see the date.
The company this write-up is about, with its ticker symbol.
The event that could move the share price.
Which way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.
Where the shares closed in the last session before the news came out. It is the price the result columns are measured from.
Our own estimate of the move, after weighing the market's estimate, the past moves and the situation now.
How far the price got after the event, at whichever it reached first: its highest point or its lowest. Every hour counts, including pre-market and after-hours. It is measured against the close before the news, and the cell says whether it was the high or the low. Pending means the event has passed and we have not finished checking it.
The other end of the same move: if the price reached its highest point first, this is the lowest it then got, and the other way round. Every hour counts, including pre-market and after-hours. It is measured against the close before the news, and the cell says whether it was the high or the low.
Details
Passed
CAPRCapricor Therapeutics, Inc.
FDA action or review extension for Capricor's Deramiocel is due after a 3 to 9 negative panel voteMixed6.2910% to 25% in either direction on a normal extension, a 35% to 55% decline on a rejection, and a gain above 100% on a surprise approval.+44.67%High+0.79%Low

CAPR result

After the event it went to +44.67% at its highest, and later to +0.79% at its lowest, against the close price before FDA extension.

The news wasMixed

The FDA accepted the amendment, which is the good half, and pushed the decision back three months to 22 November, which is the bad one.

Chart

The FDA accepted a major amendment to Capricor’s Deramiocel approval application and extended the review; the decision is now due November 22, 2026.

CAPR price from the signal through FDA extension, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time9.666.0716:3418:3920:0013:0313:2513:3013:4620:0021 Aug24 Aug28 AugAfter signalAfter FDA extension (24 Aug 2026, 13:25 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
SRRKScholar Rock Holding Corporation
FDA approves Scholar Rock's apitegromab as Isembyld, unlocking its first commercial drug launchPositive55.41+8% to +15%+26.06%High−7.96%Low

SRRK result

After the event it went to +26.06% at its highest, and later to −7.96% at its lowest, against the close price before FDA decision.

The news wasMixed

Approval gives Scholar Rock its first product, with a broad label, a $310,000 annual price and a priority review voucher. Against that, the fracture warning had not been disclosed before, management wrongly told investors on the Sunday call that there were no post-marketing safety requirements, and with the binary risk gone the stock traded as a launch story that has not started yet.

Chart

The FDA approved apitegromab as ISEMBYLD after the close on 11 September 2026, 19 days before the deadline, with a broad label and a fracture warning. The stock jumped after hours, then closed the first session 6.42% lower and kept falling for a week.

What else moved the price

Most of the fall was stock-specific. On 14 September SRRK fell 6.42% while XBI rose 0.90%. On 15 September the company filed an 8-K correcting its Sunday call, confirming a pregnancy safety study and 15-day fracture reporting, and Barclays downgraded it to Equalweight while raising its target to $58 from $55. XBI fell 2.27% that day, which accounts for part of the 3.57% drop. Before the decision the stock had drifted down from the signal price with no apitegromab news, to a $53.86 low on 10 September.

SRRK price from the signal through FDA decision, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time69.8548.6355.4120:0022:4522:5013:3019:4120:0023:2631 Aug2 Sept10 Sept11 Sept14 Sept25 SeptAfter signalAfter FDA decision (11 Sep 2026, 22:25 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
IONQIonQ, Inc.
IonQ Investor Day could reset combined-company guidance and the quantum roadmapPositive39.52+7% to +12%+12.42%High−0.18%Low

IONQ result

After the event it went to +12.42% at its highest, and later to −0.18% at its lowest, against the close price before investor day.

The news wasPositive

Chart

IonQ held its Investor Day and issued its first combined 2026 revenue outlook of $450 million to $460 million, plus roadmap updates. This sets the first view of the IonQ and SkyWater plan, like a family sharing its first joint budget, but no near-term profit or margin targets were given, so timing on profitability will need a future update.

IONQ price from the signal through investor day, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time44.8636.7839.5220:0012:4713:3013:3618:1520:0021 Aug24 Aug2 Sept4 Sept8 Sept9 SeptAfter signalAfter investor day (08 Sep 2026, 12:47 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
BEAMBeam Therapeutics Inc.
Beam Therapeutics presents updated BEAM-302 clinical data at the European Respiratory Society CongressPositive29.66+8% to +15%+9.91%High−15.58%Low

BEAM result

After the event it went to +9.91% at its highest, and later to −15.58% at its lowest, against the close price before clinical data.

The news wasPositive

Chart

Beam reported updated BEAM-302 results showing higher levels of the healthy AAT protein and no major new safety issues. The company is pursuing a faster approval path based on a lab test, for example if the right test number goes up you can ask for a quicker review, but a regulator still has to decide.

BEAM price from the signal through clinical data, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time32.6525.0429.6610:0310:3713:3013:4820:0021 Aug25 Aug26 Aug3 Sept4 Sept8 Sept9 SeptAfter signalAfter clinical data (8 Sep 2026, 10:00 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
TLXTelix Pharmaceuticals Limited
FDA decision on resubmitted Pixclara application could reset Telix growth expectationsPositive11.29—+9.12%High+0.97%Low

TLX result

After the event it went to +9.12% at its highest, and later to +0.97% at its lowest, against the close price before FDA decision on the resubmitted Pixclara New Drug Application.

The news wasPositive

Chart

The FDA approved Pixclara on 14 September, three days after the target action date. The stock reached 12.32 before the market opened and fell for the rest of the day, closing at 11.78, up 4.34% on the session and less than half the move the card expected from an approval.

TLX price from the signal through FDA decision on the resubmitted Pixclara New Drug Application, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time12.5010.8011.2918:0520:0512:0012:0213:3013:4720:0021:2121 Aug1 Sept9 Sept11 Sept14 Sept15 SeptAfter signalAfter FDA decision on the resubmitted Pixclara New Drug Application (2026-09-14)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
MMacy's, Inc.
Macy's second-quarter results will test whether its turnaround can support another guidance increasePositive21.51+4% to +9%+7.58%High−8.09%Low

M result

After the event it went to +7.58% at its highest, and later to −8.09% at its lowest, against the close price before earnings.

The news wasMixed

Sales, comparable sales and profit all beat and the full year was raised. Against that, $0.23 of the $0.63 came from a tariff refund, and the third quarter was guided to a loss with comparable sales around flat.

Chart

Macy's beat on sales and profit, grew comparable sales for a fifth straight quarter and raised its full-year outlook, helped by a $116 million tariff refund. It then guided to a third-quarter adjusted loss with comparable sales around flat, and the shares fell.

M price from the signal through earnings, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time23.3819.7721.5119:5820:0010:4410:5513:3013:3113:4420:0025 Aug8 Sept9 Sept10 Sept11 SeptAfter signalAfter earnings (10 Sep 2026, 10:55 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
ROLRHigh Roller Technologies, Inc.
High Roller Technologies launches the invitation-only ROLR prediction markets platform on September 15Positive6.36+6% to +15%+7.55%High−1.26%Low

ROLR result

After the event it went to +7.55% at its highest, and later to −1.26% at its lowest, against the close price before product launch.

The news wasPositive

Chart

High Roller Technologies launched the invitation-only beta of its ROLR prediction markets platform on schedule, and said the full commercial launch is still on track for the end of October. It published no user numbers and did not say whether real-money trading is live, so the market took the headline and little else.

ROLR price from the signal through product launch, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time6.845.936.3619:0520:0020:0112:1212:1913:3013:3613:4820:003 Sept4 Sept14 Sept15 SeptAfter signalAfter product launch (15 Sep 2026, 12:12 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
ZYMEZymeworks Inc.
FDA decision on Ziihera first-line gastric cancer expansion could unlock $250 million for ZymeworksPositive28.777% to 15% gain on clean approval.+6.01%High−10.98%Low

ZYME result

After the event it went to +6.01% at its highest, and later to −10.98% at its lowest, against the close price before FDA approval.

The news wasPositive

Chart

The FDA approved Ziihera with chemotherapy, with or without tislelizumab, for first-line treatment of certain stomach and esophageal junction cancers. The approval triggers a $250 million milestone payment to Zymeworks from Jazz.

ZYME price from the signal through FDA approval, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time31.0025.6128.7720:0009:0520:0013:3914:0014:3917:5420:0020 Aug24 Aug25 Aug30 AugAfter signalAfter FDA approval (25 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
SNAPSnap Inc.
Snap SPECS augmented reality glasses launch and first in-depth demonstrationMixed5.72+8% to +15% on a strong launch, -10% to -18% on a weak launch+5.59%High−1.57%Low

SNAP result

After the event it went to +5.59% at its highest, and later to −1.57% at its lowest, against the close price before product launch.

The news wasMixed

On one side the product worked in public and arrived with a serious partner list, spanning enterprise software at Salesforce and AWS, retail at Shopify, sport at the NBA and WNBA, connectivity at Verizon and AI agents at Nvidia, which is the platform case the company needed to make. On the other, the three things that would turn a platform into revenue were all absent: no shipping date, no preorder numbers and no cheaper model, with the price still $2,195.

Chart

Snap gave the first full demonstration of its $2,195 Specs, showing an AI assistant, hand-tracking control with no wristband, and partner work with Verizon, Shopify, Salesforce, AWS, Nvidia, the NBA and WNBA and HBO, and opened a hands-on space in Los Angeles from 1 October. It gave no shipping date, no preorder numbers and no cheaper model, and the shares gave back an early gain.

What else moved the price

The card called the day crowded and named the Federal Reserve, and the crowding was real but it helped rather than hurt. The decision landed on 16 September, hours before the keynote, so it sat behind the launch rather than competing with it, and on 17 September the comparison stocks all rose: Qualcomm 2.09%, Apple 1.38%, Meta 1.34% and Alphabet 1.30%. Snap falling into a technology tape that was up made the reaction easier to attribute to the launch, not harder. Quarterly index expiry on 18 September, which the card also flagged, falls outside the window measured here.

SNAP price from the signal through product launch, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time6.075.175.7220:0023:0113:3016:0219:5920:0021 Aug24 Aug15 Sept16 Sept17 SeptAfter signalAfter product launch (16 Sep 2026, 23:00 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
RAREUltragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
FDA decision on UX111 could restore part of Ultragenyx's lost pipeline valuePositive12.88+12% to +25%+4.43%Low+17.39%High

RARE result

After the event it went to +4.43% at its lowest, and later to +17.39% at its highest, against the close price before FDA decision.

The news wasPositive

Chart

The FDA approved UX111 as FAYUVI on 17 September 2026, two days before its target date and as a standard full approval rather than the accelerated approval the application sought. It is the first treatment ever approved for Sanfilippo syndrome type A, it cleared the manufacturing objection that caused the 2025 rejection, and it came with a priority review voucher. The stock rose 12.58% on the day.

What else moved the price

About a third of the day was not this decision. The stock opened 17 September at $13.22 and had already climbed to $13.50 before the tape broke at 18:28 UTC, a gain of 4.81% on no company news, on a day the biotechnology ETF XBI closed 2.64% higher and SPY 1.13% higher. The approval itself is the move from $13.50 to the $14.50 close, 7.41%. Nothing else lands in the window: the card called the day clear and it was, with the Federal Reserve decision the day before and the monthly options expiration the day after, both outside it. Worth separating from the result is what has happened since. The stock is at $16.04 as this is written on 22 September, 12.09% above the signal price and well beyond anything the approval session produced, which is a repricing of the two priority review vouchers and the launch rather than a reaction to the decision.

RARE price from the signal through FDA decision, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time16.0412.7319:2520:0018:2818:3419:5920:0020:2310 Sept11 Sept16 Sept17 Sept22 SeptAfter signalAfter FDA decision (17 Sep 2026, 18:28 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
AVGOBroadcom Inc.
Broadcom fiscal third-quarter results and AI revenue outlookPositive367.246% to 10% gain lasting one to five sessions.+3.39%High−6.78%Low

AVGO result

After the event it went to +3.39% at its highest, and later to −6.78% at its lowest, against the close price before earnings.

The news wasPositive

Chart

Broadcom reported quarterly results with revenue of $29.591B and $16.7B from AI chips, more than half of its sales. It raised its outlook for the next quarter to about $34.8B in revenue.

AVGO price from the signal through earnings, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time379.69342.20367.2420:0020:1820:2721:2413:3014:4719:4720:0021 Aug26 Aug28 Aug2 Sept3 Sept4 SeptAfter signalAfter earnings (02 Sep 2026, 20:26 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
TSLATesla, Inc.
Tesla launches high-volume Semi production at its new Nevada truck factory, a week before the Roadster revealMixed377.94+1% to +3% if Tesla gives a production rate, price and fleet orders, -1% to -3% if it is a tour with no numbers+2.35%High−2.72%Low

TSLA result

After the event it went to +2.35% at its highest, and later to −2.72% at its lowest, against the close price before Semi high-volume production launch.

The news wasPositive

Chart

Tesla delivered a real but partial positive: named fleet customers at a completed, running factory, without an official price or a dated production number. The stock opened into the card's positive range, up as much as 2.09%, before giving it all back and closing down 1.79% from the signal price, on Tesla-specific analyst target cuts and a European regulatory delay unrelated to the Semi event, while the S&P 500 rose 0.51% the same session.

What else moved the price

The card named PACCAR, Cummins and Rivian as the comparisons and the Roadster reveal and delivery count a week later as the events that would matter more. Neither shows up as the explanation here; the reversal is attributed specifically to Tesla-level analyst and regulatory news rather than to sector or peer moves.

TSLA price from the signal through Semi high-volume production launch, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time386.83367.67377.9409:4416:1320:0008:0013:3013:3114:4320:0022 Sept23 Sept24 Sept25 SeptAfter signalAfter Semi high-volume production launch (25 Sep 2026, 01:00 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
BLZEBackblaze, Inc.
Backblaze Investor Day will set the AI growth and long-term financial frameworkPositive13.89+6% to +12%+2.16%High−6.12%Low

BLZE result

After the event it went to +2.16% at its highest, and later to −6.12% at its lowest, against the close price before investor day.

The news wasMixed

Storage growth was guided above 40% with about $396 million of customer commitments behind it. Against that, management said gross margin will fall while it builds the capacity, gave no cash flow target, and had raised $201 million of convertible notes to pay for it.

Chart

Backblaze held its first Investor Day and guided B2 Cloud Storage revenue growth above 40% through 2027, with multi-year customer commitments of about $396 million behind it. Management also said gross margin will dip while it builds the capacity those contracts need, and set no free cash flow target after raising $201 million of convertible notes.

BLZE price from the signal through investor day, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time16.1112.5413.8913:3013:4719:4320:0021 Aug24 Aug3 Sept8 Sept9 Sept10 SeptAfter signalAfter investor day (9 Sep 2026, 13:30 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
INTUIntuit Inc.
Intuit Investor Day could reset AI growth targets after a 48% one-year stock declinePositive318.13+4% to +8%+1.80%High−1.74%Low

INTU result

After the event it went to +1.80% at its highest, and later to −1.74% at its lowest, against the close price before investor day.

The news wasMixed

The numbers were held and the customer base was not. On the good side, fiscal 2027 was reaffirmed at $23,279 million to $23,512 million with GAAP earnings per share of $20.12 to $20.36, the first quarter was guided to 11% revenue growth and 30% to 33% non-GAAP earnings growth, mid-market revenue grew 39% on 28% customer growth, Intuit Enterprise Suite reached nearly $150 million of annualised revenue at four times the prior year, and Credit Karma was guided to 11% to 13% growth. On the bad side, Intuit disclosed that it had missed new-customer targets in do-it-yourself tax and QuickBooks Online, lost a point of IRS e-file share in fiscal 2026, guided TurboTax to 2% to 3% and Mailchimp to down 1% to flat, named price as the main reason customers leave, and raised none of its long-term targets.

Chart

Intuit reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 guidance to the dollar, left its three-year growth bands where they already were at 10% to 15% for the business platform and 4% to 8% for consumer, and told investors it had missed its own new-customer targets in do-it-yourself tax and QuickBooks Online, with chief executive Sasan Goodarzi saying the number one reason customers left was price. The stock rose to $323.86 in the first thirty-nine minutes of the presentation, gave all of it back within the hour and closed 1.57% lower at $313.13 on a day the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.69%.

What else moved the price

The card called the day crowded and it was, but not in the way it expected. Its own read was that a beaten-down software name would trade the Federal Reserve rather than its targets, and that the honest measure was the 17 September close against the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.69% to 26,418.30 that day, recovering Wednesday’s post-Fed selloff, so duration was a tailwind and Intuit still fell 1.57%. A second move was running underneath it: the three software peers the card named all fell harder than Intuit did, with Salesforce down 3.07%, BILL 2.92% and HubSpot 2.91%, while ServiceNow fell 0.97%, Paycom 0.67% and the IGV software ETF rose 0.78%. So a sell-off in application software was working against the stock on the day, and Intuit outperformed the cohort the card itself picked. The following session was quarterly index expiry, which the card told readers to discount, and Intuit fell another 3.17% on 2.4 times its recent average volume.

INTU price from the signal through investor day, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time363.70303.19318.1315:0015:3916:3720:002 Sept3 Sept10 Sept16 Sept17 Sept18 SeptAfter signalAfter investor day (17 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
ACNAccenture plc
Accenture gives its first fiscal 2027 guidance after the worst single day in its historyNegative183.37-8% to -15% if bookings miss again or growth is guided below 3%+1.71%Low+24.14%High

ACN result

After the event it went to +1.71% at its lowest, and later to +24.14% at its highest, against the close price before fiscal fourth quarter results.

The news wasPositive

Chart

Accenture reported fiscal fourth quarter 2026 results at 10:39 UTC on 1 October, before the US open. New bookings were $22.2 billion against the $20 billion the card set as the upward threshold, revenue of $18.68 billion came in above the company's own guided range, and fiscal 2027 revenue growth was guided to 3% to 6% in local currency. The stock rose 15.78% to $212.30, its largest one-day gain in the two years of daily bars the feed carries, against a card that expected a fall.

What else moved the price

This was Accenture's own news almost entirely. The S and P 500 tracking fund rose 0.18% on 1 October and the technology sector fund 1.05%, against Accenture's 15.78%, and the largest peer move was Wipro at 6.67%, less than half of it. The crowded morning the card warned about did not interfere. Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC left no mark on the tape, and the stock made its high of $227.63 twelve minutes after the 14:00 UTC ISM survey before fading through the afternoon to close at $212.30. The move the card did not see coming was the one before the event, not the one on the day. The stock fell 3.64% from the $190.29 signal price to the $183.37 pre-news close with no company news to account for it, including a 4.73% fall on 18 September to $181.29 on 11,664,716 shares against 2,936,047 the session before. That was the September quarterly expiry, which is the likeliest explanation for the volume, and no Accenture news was published that day. One consequence matters for reading the percentages: measured from the pre-news close the reaction is 15.78%, and measured from the card's own signal price it is 11.57%, because the stock had already given back part of its summer recovery before the release.

ACN price from the signal through fiscal fourth quarter results, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time227.63172.11183.3710:3913:3014:1219:5720:0017 Sept18 Sept21 Sept29 Sept30 Sept1 OctAfter signalAfter fiscal fourth quarter results (1 Oct 2026, 10:39 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
NKENIKE, Inc.
NIKE’s fiscal Q1 results could trigger a relief rally if margins and guidance finally turnPositive35.15+6% to +11%+1.59%High−10.90%Low

NKE result

After the event it went to +1.59% at its highest, and later to −10.90% at its lowest, against the close price before fiscal first quarter earnings.

The news wasNegative

Chart

NIKE reported fiscal first quarter revenue of $11.213 billion, below market expectations, while diluted earnings of $0.48 beat and gross margin expanded 60 basis points to 42.8%. The company then guided fiscal 2027 revenue down high-single digits and adjusted earnings to $1.15 to $1.35. The shares closed 2 October at $33.87, down 3.64% from the pre-news close and 9.32% from the card's signal price.

What else moved the price

The first after-hours fall was NIKE's own news. The next regular session had a meaningful favorable outside driver: the September employment report showed only 29,000 net jobs added, cooling inflation concerns, and the S and P 500 rose 0.7% while NIKE recovered from its $32.55 open and $31.97 low to close at $33.87. That broad rally reduced the closing loss rather than causing it. The peer tape was mixed, with DECK down 0.57%, LULU down 1.46% and UAA up 1.51%, so there was no sector move large enough to explain NIKE's fall.

NKE price from the signal through fiscal first quarter earnings, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time37.4731.3235.1519:5920:0020:1510:4413:3013:3219:5920:009 Sept10 Sept14 Sept1 Oct2 OctAfter signalAfter fiscal first quarter earnings (1 Oct 2026, 20:15 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.
FDA decision for Gilead’s once daily HIV pill BIC/LEN, PDUFA date August 27, 2026Positive148.86—+0.48%High−2.72%Low

GILD result

After the event it went to +0.48% at its highest, and later to −2.72% at its lowest, against the close price before FDA approval.

The news wasPositive

Chart

The FDA approved Bixlenvo, Gilead’s HIV treatment that combines bictegravir and lenacapavir, for adults whose virus is already suppressed on treatment. The decision clears the way for a US launch.

GILD price from the signal through FDA approval, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time149.62142.95148.8617:3619:5720:4620:0021:5413:3019:0620:0020:2820 Aug26 Aug27 Aug28 Aug31 AugAfter signalAfter FDA approval (27 Aug 2026, 21:47 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
SNAPSnap Inc.
Snap prepares public Specs demos in Los Angeles as its site and Westfield list different opening datesMixed5.40+2% to +5% if reviews are strong and a shipping date is named, -2% to -5% if early users find Specs heavy and limited+0.37%Low+6.11%High

SNAP result

After the event it went to +0.37% at its lowest, and later to +6.11% at its highest, against the close price before Specs public demos open.

The news wasMixed

The product feedback was positive on display quality, comfort and spatial interaction, but the $2,195 price, conspicuous frame and first-generation limitations remain. Most importantly for the stock, Snap disclosed no shipment date or demand number that could change revenue expectations.

Chart

Snap put Specs in front of the public at Westfield Century City, though Snap's October 1 availability language and Westfield's October 2 operating calendar disagree by a day. Hands-on impressions were encouraging but brought no firm shipping date, order volume or enterprise order, leaving the event as product validation rather than a financial catalyst.

What else moved the price

The percentage depends heavily on the baseline. SNAP had fallen to $5.40 before the event, 3.91% below the $5.62 card price, and then closed 1 October at $5.65. That is a 4.63% day rise but only a 0.53% gain from the signal, so ordinary volatility and recovery from the pre-event decline explain more than the demo itself.

SNAP price from the signal through Specs public demos open, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time5.755.085.4014:0620:0018:0018:0619:5920:0023:1522 Sept23 Sept24 Sept29 Sept30 Sept1 OctAfter signalAfter Specs public demos open (1 Oct 2026, 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC))Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
JAZZJazz Pharmaceuticals plc
FDA decision on Ziihera combinations could open the first-line HER2-positive gastroesophageal cancer marketPositive254.474% to 8% on a broad approval.+0.27%Low+4.68%High

JAZZ result

After the event it went to +0.27% at its lowest, and later to +4.68% at its highest, against the close price before FDA approval.

The news wasPositive

Chart

The FDA approved Ziihera for first-line treatment of a form of stomach and esophageal cancer, for use with an immunotherapy plus chemotherapy and also with chemotherapy alone. This enables a U.S. launch in both options, with the chemo-only use limited to a narrower group.

JAZZ price from the signal through FDA approval, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time266.38247.11254.4714:4620:0020:5913:4014:0015:0520:0021 Aug24 Aug25 Aug28 AugAfter signalAfter FDA approval (25 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
MIRMMirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
FDA approves Atebrioz for FOP, adding Mirum's fourth commercial medicinePositive89.36+8% to +15%−0.40%Low+2.95%High

MIRM result

After the event it went to −0.40% at its lowest, and later to +2.95% at its highest, against the close price before FDA approval of Atebrioz for FOP.

The news wasPositive

Chart

The FDA approved Atebrioz exactly as scheduled, but the stock had already fallen about 8% from the card's signal price by the day before the decision, on an unrelated pipeline setback in volixibat that the card did not flag as a near-term risk. The approval itself produced only a modest bounce, from an $89.36 pre-announcement close to a $92.00 extended-hours high, roughly 3%, well short of the 8% to 15% the card modeled for the event on its own.

What else moved the price

The card named competition from Regeneron's Pasatru and Ipsen's Sohonos and possible short covering as factors that could shape the size of the reaction. Neither shows up clearly in the muted move; the unrelated volixibat setback looks like the larger force acting on the stock in this window.

MIRM price from the signal through FDA approval of Atebrioz for FOP, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time103.2887.6489.3615:4320:0019:0019:5420:0023:0931 Aug11 Sept24 Sept25 SeptAfter signalAfter FDA approval of Atebrioz for FOP (25 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
CCLCarnival Corporation & plc
Carnival beats its third quarter guidance and lifts the full-year figure despite a higher fuel assumptionMixed22.14+5% to +10% if the full-year guidance of about $2.22 is held or raised, -5% to -9% if fuel forces another cut−0.68%Low+14.23%High

CCL result

After the event it went to −0.68% at its lowest, and later to +14.23% at its highest, against the close price before third quarter results.

The news wasPositive

Chart

Carnival reported fiscal third quarter adjusted earnings of $1.43 against the $1.35 it had guided, lifted its full-year figure to about $2.24 from about $2.22 instead of cutting it for a third time, and said 2027 is half booked at record occupancy and pricing. The shares rose 13.41% on 29 September 2026 to $25.11, the largest results-day move in two years, and have kept almost all of it.

What else moved the price

Almost nothing else was in this move. On 29 September the S&P 500 tracker SPY fell 0.18% and the consumer discretionary tracker XLY rose 0.14%, so a 13.41% day was the company alone. Two outside things did help at the margin. Oil fell hard on the same session, with the Brent tracker BNO down 2.62% and the broader oil tracker USO down 4.44%, which is a direct relief on the one input cost this card was built around. And the Conference Board consumer confidence index landing at a twelve-year low of 81.9 was the risk the card named most clearly, and it simply did not register. The two sessions after were the mirror image: BNO rose 2.28% on 30 September and 4.76% on 1 October, and Carnival gave back 2.27% into quarter end on 30 September before recovering 2.16% on 1 October. Worth noting from the pre-event window too: the stock made a failed rally to $23.35 intraday on 22 September on 40,626,431 shares and still closed that day at $22.28, then set its low of $21.45 on 24 September, so the selling the card described was still running right up to the print.

CCL price from the signal through third quarter results, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time25.2921.4522.1413:1513:3018:4120:0018 Sept22 Sept24 Sept28 Sept29 SeptAfter signalAfter third quarter results (29 Sep 2026, 13:15 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.
Affirm fiscal Q4 2026 results and fiscal 2027 outlook could reset growth expectationsMixed77.49+12% to +18% on strong guidance, -10% to -16% on weak guidance−0.77%Low+16.71%High

AFRM result

After the event it went to −0.77% at its lowest, and later to +16.71% at its highest, against the close price before earnings.

The news wasMixed

Revenue, volume and operating margin all came in above the card’s range. Against that, the 2027 volume guide implies growth below the 25% a lasting rally needed.

Chart

Affirm reported fourth-quarter results, posting $1.185B in revenue, $14.1B in gross merchandise volume and about a 12.5% GAAP operating margin. It guided fiscal 2027 to more than $60B in GMV with adjusted operating margin above 30%, and said reported net income was lifted by a non-cash tax allowance release.

AFRM price from the signal through earnings, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time90.4473.4477.4919:4620:0020:0220:2020:3220:3413:3019:5920:0021 Aug24 Aug27 Aug28 Aug31 AugAfter signalAfter earnings (27 Aug 2026, 20:32 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
MRKMerck & Co., Inc.
FDA decision on Merck’s Winrevair HYPERION label update for recently diagnosed pulmonary arterial hypertensionPositive149.50+0.5% to +2.0%−0.98%Low+2.72%High

MRK result

After the event it went to −0.98% at its lowest, and later to +2.72% at its highest, against the close price before FDA label update.

The news wasPositive

Chart

The FDA approved the Winrevair label update adding HYPERION data for adults newly diagnosed with pulmonary arterial hypertension, and Merck announced it before the open on 22 September 2026, the morning after the target date. The stock rose 0.94% on the day and gave it back the next.

What else moved the price

The card rated the day clear and it was: 22 September carried no market-moving data, and the S&P 500 ETF SPY closed 0.02% lower. The healthcare sector did help. XLV rose 0.52%, a little over half of Merck's 0.94%, so the approval itself accounts for less than half a percent. One unexplained print: at 14:57 ET a single minute traded 1.24 million shares at about $151.70, more than a tenth of the day's volume, with no news found to match it. The bigger moves in this window were not the decision at all. The stock fell from $152.55 to $143.79 between publication and 15 September with no Winrevair news, and rose 1.79% on 21 September with the whole market, SPY up 1.55%.

MRK price from the signal through FDA label update, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time157.00142.25149.5019:5520:0013:4920:0210:4513:3013:4015:2420:0021 Aug25 Aug15 Sept21 Sept22 Sept23 SeptAfter signalAfter FDA label update (22 Sep 2026, 10:45 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
AZOAutoZone, Inc.
AutoZone reports fourth quarter results with the stock at a two-year low after three straight results-day fallsMixed2803.25+5% to +10% if domestic same-store sales are at or above 3.7% and earnings clear $54.22, -6% to -12% if same-store sales land near the 2.5% UBS expects−1.01%Low+6.99%High

AZO result

After the event it went to −1.01% at its lowest, and later to +6.99% at its highest, against the close price before Earnings.

The news wasMixed

Earnings beat and gross margin rose 182 basis points, but a $96 million tariff refund worth $4.43 a share did the work; without it earnings missed. Domestic same-store sales of 1.6% were the weakest in the series, with the do-it-yourself business down 0.6%, while commercial sales grew 8.6%. The outlook for fiscal 2027 calls for flat to low-single-digit domestic same-store sales and a much smaller inventory accounting charge.

Chart

AutoZone reported fourth quarter earnings of $56.05 a share, above the $54.22 expected, on domestic same-store sales of 1.6%, well below the 3.7% the market wanted. The earnings beat came from a $96 million tariff refund. The stock still rose 3.26%, along with the rest of the auto parts group.

What else moved the price

The card rated the day clear, and the macro calendar was: SPY closed down 0.02%. But the auto parts group rose together. O'Reilly gained 3.55%, Advance Auto Parts 4.02% and Genuine Parts 2.48%, close to or above AutoZone's 3.26%, so part of the day reads as a sector move, whether as relief that AutoZone's commercial business and margin held up or for reasons of its own. Nothing else specific to O'Reilly was found for that day. The sharpest swing came during the call, from $2,999.30 at 10:06 ET to $2,844.80 at 10:12 ET, minutes after the Richmond Fed survey the card had flagged for that time, and no cause for it was found. Before the report the stock fell 1.82% on 21 September to a new low, so the results day started from further down than the card was written at.

AZO price from the signal through Earnings, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time2999.302775.002803.2513:3019:5720:0010:2410:5511:0013:3014:0614:1220:0018 Sept21 Sept22 Sept23 SeptAfter signalAfter Earnings (22 Sep 2026, 10:55 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
OMDAOmada Health, Inc.
Omada Health holds its first Investor Day and presents long-term growth plansPositive21.50+4% to +8%−1.40%Low+6.00%High

OMDA result

After the event it went to −1.40% at its lowest, and later to +6.00% at its highest, against the close price before investor day.

The news wasMixed

The margin target came in at 30%, double what was expected. Against that, the revenue growth target of at least 20% is a planned slowdown from the 43% the company is running at.

Chart

Omada Health used its first investor day to set long-term targets of at least 20% annual revenue growth, an 80% non-GAAP gross margin and a 30% adjusted EBITDA margin. The growth target is slower than the pace the company is running at now, and the shares ended the day unchanged before falling the next session.

OMDA price from the signal through investor day, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time25.6019.6621.5017:5720:0013:0013:3014:2020:0021 Aug26 Aug27 Aug9 Sept10 Sept11 SeptAfter signalAfter investor day (10 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation
Costco reports fiscal fourth quarter results after a year of beating and still fallingMixed896.48+3% to +6% if revenue clears $94.85 billion and renewal holds, -3% to -6% if revenue misses $94 billion or renewal slips−1.49%Low+3.20%High

COST result

After the event it went to −1.49% at its lowest, and later to +3.20% at its highest, against the close price before fiscal fourth quarter earnings.

The news wasPositive

Chart

Costco delivered every element of the card's positive trigger: revenue of $95.7 billion, EPS of $6.75, and a worldwide renewal rate of 89.8%, up from 89.7%. After an early gap down to as low as $883.10, the stock reversed and closed the 24 hours after up 3.25% at $922.77, inside the card's +3% to +6% positive range and the first quarter in over a year that a Costco beat was actually rewarded, even with some analysts flagging that part of the EPS beat came from a one-off tariff refund.

What else moved the price

The card named a one-time tariff refund as a detail it could not have known in advance; reporting shows it accounted for $0.15 of the EPS beat and drew mixed analyst commentary on earnings quality, without stopping the stock from rallying on the underlying renewal-rate and comparable-sales strength the card said mattered more.

COST price from the signal through fiscal fourth quarter earnings, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time925.14883.10896.4812:4113:3020:0020:1513:3019:5020:0016 Sept21 Sept24 Sept25 SeptAfter signalAfter fiscal fourth quarter earnings (24 Sep 2026, after the close)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
ONonsemi
onsemi Investor Day could reset AI growth, margin and Synaptics targetsPositive73.20+5% to +9%−1.57%High−10.11%Low

ON result

After the event it went to −1.57% at its highest, and later to −10.11% at its lowest, against the close price before analyst day.

The news wasMixed

On one side the 2030 model sits well above what the company is running at now: 12% to 14% annual revenue growth to nearly $11 billion, a 53% gross margin against about 40% this year, more than $3.5 billion of free cash flow and AI data-center revenue growing at least 50% a year to more than $2.5 billion. On the other, the addressable market was cut by $30 billion to $213 billion because Synaptics is excluded, that deal is not expected to close until mid-2027, and 53% is the same gross margin target set in 2023 and missed every year since.

Chart

onsemi used its analyst day to publish a 2030 financial model: 12% to 14% annual revenue growth to nearly $11 billion of revenue, a 53% gross margin, a 38% operating margin and more than $3.5 billion of free cash flow, with AI data-center revenue growing from about $500 million this year to more than $2.5 billion. It also cut the market it says it addresses to $213 billion from the $243 billion it gave in June, because Synaptics is excluded until that deal closes in mid-2027, and the shares fell.

What else moved the price

The card called the day crowded and named the Federal Reserve, which was right about the clash and wrong about who won it. The decision landed at 18:00 UTC, the same minute the presentation began, and the stock held its price for the next half hour before breaking two minutes after the 2030 targets were published at 18:30. The semiconductor ETF SMH closed 0.64% higher on the day, so the afternoon belonged to management rather than to the Fed. Quarterly index expiry on 18 September, which the card also flagged, falls outside the window measured here.

ON price from the signal through analyst day, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time76.3565.8073.2013:1713:3419:5921:2618:3019:1220:001 Sept10 Sept11 Sept15 Sept16 Sept17 SeptAfter signalAfter analyst day (16 Sep 2026, 18:30 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
CTVACorteva, Inc.
Corteva presents stand-alone targets for Vylor and New Corteva before the October 1 separationPositive82.544% to 8% over one to three trading days.−1.62%Low+3.21%High

CTVA result

After the event it went to −1.62% at its lowest, and later to +3.21% at its highest, against the close price before investor day.

The news wasMixed

On one side the separation stopped being a plan and became a date, with a record date, a distribution date and a ticker, and Vylor guided its EBITDA margin from 27% to 30% by 2029. On the other, it guided long-term sales growth of only 3% to 4%, below what the market was looking for from the faster-growing half.

Chart

Corteva set out stand-alone plans for both halves of the company and fixed the split: the board approved the distribution the day before, with a record date of 24 September and Vylor trading on the NYSE as VYLR from 1 October, one share for every Corteva share held. The seed company guided to higher margins by 2029 on modest sales growth.

CTVA price from the signal through investor day, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time90.8781.2082.5413:2913:3013:3117:5520:0021 Aug24 Aug3 Sept14 Sept15 SeptAfter signalAfter investor day (15 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
AAPLApple Inc.
Apple’s September 9 product event could unveil its first foldable iPhoneMixed316.22+3% to +6% on a launch-ready foldable, -2% to -5% on delay or weak details−2.00%Low+0.93%High

AAPL result

After the event it went to −2.00% at its lowest, and later to +0.93% at its highest, against the close price before product event.

The news wasMixed

The foldable landed at $1,999, which is the price the market wanted. Against that, it ships on 23 October rather than with the rest of the lineup.

Chart

Apple unveiled its first foldable iPhone, the Duo, at $1,999, alongside the iPhone 18 Pro at $1,199 and the Pro Max at $1,299. Preorders open on 16 October and it reaches 70 countries on 23 October, so the launch lands next month rather than with the rest of the lineup.

AAPL price from the signal through product event, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time330.81309.90316.2215:1517:0018:1518:5520:002 Sept3 Sept8 Sept9 Sept10 SeptAfter signalAfter product event (9 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
NVDANVIDIA Corporation
NVIDIA reports fiscal Q2 2027 results, with Q3 guidance and Vera Rubin timing in focusNegative209.66Down 3% to 6% during the first one to three sessions.−2.94%Low+9.93%High

NVDA result

After the event it went to −2.94% at its lowest, and later to +9.93% at its highest, against the close price before earnings.

The news wasPositive

Chart
NVDA price from the signal through earnings, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time230.47203.50209.6608:0113:3019:5220:0020:2020:2213:3013:3517:2520:0021 Aug24 Aug26 Aug27 AugAfter signalAfter earnings (26 Aug 2026, 20:20 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
METAMeta Platforms, Inc.
Meta unveils its next AI glasses and headset at Connect, two days after Muse sent the stock up 11%Mixed744.10+2% to +4% if Muse gets new usage numbers and a next-model date, -3% to -6% if the keynote is hardware only−3.24%Low+4.80%High

META result

After the event it went to −3.24% at its lowest, and later to +4.80% at its highest, against the close price before Connect 2026 keynote.

The news wasPositive

Chart

Meta delivered essentially the full positive trigger and then some: a new, larger Muse download figure (3.4 million, up from 2.5 million), immediate model updates in place of a promised date, and a priced, dated hardware lineup, plus a genuine surprise, the Muse Charm pendant device, that the card had not modeled. The stock closed the 24 hours after up 4.90%, at $777.59, and peaked at $779.82, both above the card's own +2% to +4% positive range and within 0.75% of the 52-week high.

What else moved the price

The card named profit-taking into the unfilled 21 September gap as the main risk to the rally continuing. That gap was never tested; the new information from the keynote extended the move instead of reversing it.

META price from the signal through Connect 2026 keynote, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time779.82720.00744.1019:5920:1313:5620:0023:0009:4513:3019:5020:0021 Sept22 Sept23 Sept24 SeptAfter signalAfter Connect 2026 keynote (23 Sep 2026, 23:00 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc.
Darden reports first quarter results with Olive Garden facing its hardest comparison of the yearMixed213.69+3% to +7% if same-restaurant sales clear 3.1% and adjusted earnings clear $2.05 with the LongHorn margin holding, -4% to -8% if Olive Garden lands near 1% and the LongHorn margin narrows again−3.50%Low−0.33%High

DRI result

After the event it went to −3.50% at its lowest, and later to −0.33% at its highest, against the close price before fiscal first quarter earnings.

The news wasPositive

Chart

Darden landed almost exactly on the card's neutral case: same-restaurant sales of 3.1% to 3.2%, adjusted earnings of $2.05, and full-year guidance reaffirmed unchanged. The one real surprise was positive, LongHorn's segment margin expanded to 18.0% from 17.4%, the metric the card said was the real risk; the one real soft spot was Olive Garden, in line with the card's negative marker. The stock still fell, closing the session down about 3% from the pre-earnings close, giving back a rally built on five recent broker target raises.

What else moved the price

The company flagged cyclospora-related consumer caution and World Cup scheduling as quarter-specific headwinds to demand, factors outside anything the card modeled, while saying trends had already improved into September.

DRI price from the signal through fiscal first quarter earnings, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time216.17198.29213.6920:0017:5920:0011:0413:3014:1720:0018 Sept23 Sept24 SeptAfter signalAfter fiscal first quarter earnings (24 Sep 2026, before the open)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
MUMicron Technology, Inc.
Micron's fiscal Q4 results are the first real test of a stock the market still prices for a crashPositive1065.11+6% to +12%−3.96%Low+3.17%High

MU result

After the event it went to −3.96% at its lowest, and later to +3.17% at its highest, against the close price before Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings.

The news wasMixed

The numbers were unambiguously good and the spending behind them was not. Revenue, margin, earnings and the next quarter's guide all came in above what the company had told the market to expect, and management called an 86.25% gross margin the floor for fiscal 2027 rather than the peak. Against that, first-half fiscal 2027 capital spending of about 25 billion dollars is roughly 91% of the whole of fiscal 2026 in half the time, research and development rises by more than 1 billion dollars, and a planned pay increase adds to costs. In memory, spending on that scale reads as future supply, which is the one thing a market paying about 7 times forward earnings is braced for. The tape traded both readings in a single session before settling 3.03% higher.

Chart

Micron beat its own guidance on every line of fiscal Q4 2026, with revenue of 54.23 billion dollars, an 87.0% gross margin and 33.42 dollars of adjusted earnings, and guided the next quarter to a record 61.5 billion dollars with the margin called a floor. The market sold it anyway on a fiscal 2027 capital plan of about 25 billion dollars in the first half alone, taking the stock to $1022.90 on the morning of 1 October before it reversed to close at $1097.39, up 3.03% on the day.

What else moved the price

Little of the move came from outside Micron. On 1 October SPY rose 0.18% and QQQ 0.31%, so the index contributed almost nothing to a 3.03% session. The semiconductor complex did move, but mostly downstream of this release rather than alongside it: SMH rose 1.45%, and the three equipment names the card had tied to the capital spending line, AMAT at 3.50%, LRCX at 3.53% and KLAC at 2.77%, were reacting to Micron's own capital plan. Press coverage of the day also noted Treasury yields retreating from their highest levels in more than twenty years, which helped the broad tape recover from early losses, but the index close of 0.18% caps how much of Micron's session that can explain. The larger prices in this window were not the earnings at all. The stock fell 11.78% from the $1023.15 signal price to $902.60 on 14 September with no Micron news found to match it, then rose 22.84% from there to the $1108.72 high on 25 September, both moves larger than the result itself produced.

MU price from the signal through Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time1108.72902.601065.1120:0020:0213:3014:2319:5920:009 Sept14 Sept25 Sept30 Sept1 OctAfter signalAfter Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings (30 Sep 2026, 16:02 ET (20:02 UTC))Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
LENLennar Corporation
Lennar reports third quarter results hours after a Fed decision that is priced to raise ratesMixed78.36+6% to +10% if gross margin holds at or above 16%, -8% to -13% if margin misses and Q4 is guided lower−5.90%Low+3.37%High

LEN result

After the event it went to −5.90% at its lowest, and later to +3.37% at its highest, against the close price before earnings.

The news wasMixed

On one side the discount finally narrowed: incentives came down to 12.0% from 12.9%, the home-sales margin improved to 15.8% from 15.6%, and the fourth quarter was guided to 22,000 to 23,000 deliveries with adjusted earnings of $1.30 to $1.65, all above the quarter just reported. On the other, new orders of 20,879 missed the guided floor and fell 9% year on year, revenue came in around $300 million light, the full-year delivery target was cut, and management put the 30-year mortgage near 7% with nearly half of visitors unable to qualify.

Chart

Lennar sold homes at a smaller discount and still could not sell enough of them: incentives fell to 12.0% of the price from 12.9% and the margin on home sales rose to 15.8%, but new orders of 20,879 came in below the company guidance and 9% below a year earlier. It cut its full-year delivery target to 80,000 to 81,000 homes from 82,000 to 83,000, and management declined to say the discounting had peaked.

What else moved the price

The card called the day crowded and named the Federal Reserve, and it was right about the clash and wrong about who owned the reaction. The Fed raised to 3.75% to 4.00% at 18:00 UTC on 16 September and every builder fell with Lennar that afternoon, but the session this result is judged on was the next one, and that one belonged to housing data rather than to the Fed. August housing starts at 12:30 UTC on 17 September showed single-family starts up 7.6% while total starts fell 2.6% and permits fell 2.7%, and the stock gapped straight to its high of the day at the open alongside D.R. Horton at 1.49% and PulteGroup at 1.10%. So the opening gap was the sector data as much as the print, and the fall that followed was the market reading the order book. Quarterly index expiry on 18 September, which the card also flagged, falls outside the window measured here.

LEN price from the signal through earnings, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time81.4573.7478.3613:3019:2520:0020:3013:3013:4120:0011 Sept16 Sept17 SeptAfter signalAfter earnings (16 Sep 2026, 20:30 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
IONSIonis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
FDA decision on Ionis zilganersen for Alexander disease is due September 22Positive61.33+3% to +7%−6.11%Low−4.32%High

IONS result

After the event it went to −6.11% at its lowest, and later to −4.32% at its highest, against the close price before FDA decision.

The news wasPositive

Chart

The FDA approved zilganersen as ZANVASTRO on 3 September 2026, 19 days before its target date, as the first treatment for Alexander disease in children and adults. The approval lifted the stock about 1% on a day it had already fallen 6.29%, and a partner trial failure the next evening set the direction from there.

What else moved the price

The card rated 22 September clear, but the decision came on 3 September, and that day was not about the approval. IONS opened 1.48% below the prior close and was down 6.29% by the afternoon, before the FDA acted, with the biotechnology ETF XBI down only 0.60% and no company news found to explain it. The approval accounts for only the last 0.88% of the day. The larger driver came the next evening: after the close on 4 September Novartis announced that pelacarsen, partnered with Ionis, missed its primary endpoint in the Phase 3 Lp(a)HORIZON outcomes trial, removing a royalty stream in the mid-teens to low twenties percent. The stock opened 8 September 10.2% lower. It then fell from $54.21 to $44.44 between 11 and 18 September without a single disclosure I could find to explain it, and sits at $44.38 now, 25.71% below the signal price.

IONS price from the signal through FDA decision, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time64.5844.3861.3319:2719:4919:5220:0020:0521 Aug25 Aug26 Aug2 Sept3 Sept23 SeptAfter signalAfter FDA decision (3 Sep 2026, 19:49 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
GRALGRAIL, Inc.
FDA advisory panel votes on GRAIL's Galleri multi-cancer blood testMixed108.52+20% to +35% on a clearly positive vote, -25% to -40% on a negative vote−8.77%Low+16.85%High

GRAL result

After the event it went to −8.77% at its lowest, and later to +16.85% at its highest, against the close price before FDA advisory panel vote.

The news wasPositive

Chart

The FDA advisory panel backed GRAIL's Galleri multi-cancer blood test on 23 September 2026: 10 to 0 on safety, 7 to 2 with one abstention on benefit-risk, and 6 to 4 on effectiveness. The stock was halted during the meeting, and most of the move had already come on 21 September, when the briefing documents sent it up 33.68%. It closed 24 September at $125.21, +51.70% from the signal price.

What else moved the price

The panel was not the biggest mover. The FDA briefing documents on 21 September did most of the work, taking the stock from $80.77 to $107.97 in one session. Before that GRAL drifted down with no Galleri news, to a $73.46 low on 14 September, and then rose 6.44% on 17 September on 1.53 million shares ahead of the documents. The market was little help: on 23 September, while GRAL was halted, SPY fell 0.72% and XLV 0.64%. On 24 September SPY slipped 0.08% and XLV rose 0.63%, so the +15.38% that day was the vote, not the market.

GRAL price from the signal through FDA advisory panel vote, in the order it happened.
PriceDate and time126.8973.46108.5218:1720:0011:0512:3713:3019:4920:0025 Aug14 Sept22 Sept24 Sept25 SeptAfter signalAfter FDA advisory panel vote (23 Sep 2026, 22:17 UTC)Regular sessionPre-market / After-hoursClosing price

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

Passed
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Passed
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Passed
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Passed
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Passed
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Passed
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