AutoZone reports fourth quarter results with the stock at a two-year low after three straight results-day falls

Upcoming catalystiThe event that could move the share price.

AutoZone reports fourth quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results on 22 September 2026, before the US market opens. The quarter ended on Saturday 29 August 2026 and the company confirmed the date on 24 August 2026. The conference call starts at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, which is 14:00 UTC, half an hour after the bell. The exact release minute is not published in advance.

Main stock affectediThe company the event affects most directly.

AutoZone, Inc., New York ticker AZO.

Current priceiWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.

$2,855.31 as of 18 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC, the regular-session close.

Expected stock reactioniWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Mixed. Positive if domestic same-store sales come in at or above the 3.7% the market expects and earnings clear $54.22, because the accounting charge that spoiled the last three quarters is much smaller this time. Negative if same-store sales land near the 2.5% UBS is forecasting, because that would be the fourth consecutive quarter where the sales line disappointed and the stock has fallen 6% to 9% on each of the last three.

Action before the eventiWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Watch. The stock closed at a two-year low on 18 September 2026, the day before this was written, and it has fallen on its results day three times in a row. That combination is exactly the setup where a position taken the day before is a coin toss dressed up as a view. The release lands before the open, so you can read the same-store sales number and act on it at 13:30 UTC rather than guessing at it the night before.

Why the stock is affectediThe link between the event and this company.

AutoZone sells car parts, through 6,766 stores in the United States, 933 in Mexico and 157 in Brazil. Roughly three quarters of the American business is people fixing their own cars and the rest is selling to repair shops. The share price is driven by one number the company reports and one it does not. The reported number is same-store sales, which strips out new stores and says whether the existing ones are busier. The unreported one is the share count. AutoZone pays no dividend and spends almost all of its spare cash buying its own stock, so earnings per share rise faster than profits simply because there are fewer shares to divide by. Both halves of that engine have slowed at once, and this is the quarter where the market finds out whether the slowdown was temporary.

Catalyst confidenceiHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

The event is confirmed. AutoZone announced the date and the call time in a public release on 24 August 2026, and a company this size does not move its own results day. The quarter it covers closed on 29 August 2026, so the figures already exist and nothing that happens between now and Tuesday changes them. Confidence that the event happens on the date given: 97%.

Stock-reaction confidenceiHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

Low. The last three reactions were falls of 7.17%, 6.32% and 8.99%, which is a consistent direction and a wide range. The one before those was a fall of 0.02%. Confidence in the reaction: 40%.

When the market will reactiThe moment the price is likely to move, such as at the announcement or at the next market open.

The release is published before the US open on 22 September 2026, so the tradable reaction starts at the 13:30 UTC opening bell. The conference call begins at 14:00 UTC, thirty minutes into the session, which means management's explanation arrives after the first move has already been made. The last three results days say something specific about how that plays out. On 3 March 2026 the stock opened 5.99% below the previous close and finished the day down 6.32%. On 26 May 2026 it opened 5.62% below and finished down 8.99%, so the session took it further than the gap did. On 9 December 2025 it opened only 1.91% below and closed down 7.17%, which means almost the whole of that day's loss came during trading hours rather than at the open. The pattern is that the opening gap has understated the day on all three. Whatever happens at 13:30 UTC, the call at 14:00 UTC and the hours after it have been where the damage was done.

Effect on the businessiWhat the event changes for the company itself, such as its sales, costs or profit.

The sales line is not the problem. Revenue grew 8.2%, 8.1% and 8.4% in the three quarters of fiscal 2026 reported so far, and trailing twelve-month revenue is $19.99 billion. The problem is that none of that growth is reaching the bottom line. Over the 36 weeks to 9 May 2026, sales rose 8.3% to $13.74 billion, operating profit fell 0.3% to $2.41 billion, net income fell 1.2% to $1.64 billion, and earnings per share rose 0.5% to $96.69. A company growing sales at 8% and earnings at 0.5% is a company whose costs are rising faster than its prices. Most of that gap is one accounting rule. AutoZone values the parts on its shelves on a last-in, first-out basis, which means that when the cost of buying replacement stock goes up, the higher new cost is charged against today's sales. It lowers reported profit and no cash leaves the business. Tariffs on steel and imported parts pushed those replacement costs up, and the charge has been sitting on the gross margin ever since: 212 basis points in the first quarter, 138 in the second, 77 in the third. That is the number to hold on to, because it is shrinking, and the quarter being reported is the one where the comparison flips.

Market expectations and forecastiWhat investors already expect from this event, and the numbers being forecast.

Consensus from 21 analysts is earnings of $54.22 a share on revenue of $6.71 billion. That is growth of 11.3% and 7.5% against the fourth quarter of last year, which produced $48.71 on $6.24 billion. The market is looking for domestic same-store sales of about 3.7% and total company same-store sales of about 3.6% in constant currency, against 4.8% and 5.1% a year ago. Domestic commercial sales are expected at $1.95 billion, a rise of 10.6%. UBS sits below all of that, forecasting domestic same-store sales of 2.5%. My forecast is that the earnings line beats and the sales line is the one that decides the day. Here is the arithmetic behind the first half. In the fourth quarter of last year AutoZone took an $80 million charge under that inventory rule, which the company said cost it $3.57 of earnings per share. On the third quarter call the finance director said to expect roughly $30 million this time. A $50 million smaller charge is worth about $2.23 of earnings per share on the same maths, which is 4.6% of last year's $48.71, and consensus is asking for 11.3% in total. So about two fifths of the growth the market wants arrives from an accounting comparison rather than from selling more parts. That is why an earnings beat here would prove less than it looks. And it is why the same-store sales line, where there is no accounting help at all, is the number worth waiting for.

How much is already priced iniHow much of the expected outcome the share price already reflects before the event happens.

Medium, and the two halves of that are pulling in opposite directions. The share price has priced in a great deal. At $2,855.31 the stock is 34.10% below the $4,332.68 high it set on 30 September 2025 and sits 2.7% of the way up its 52-week range. It has fallen 32.54% over twelve months while the S and P 500 tracking fund rose 15.55%, a gap of 48.09 percentage points. The trailing price to earnings ratio is 19.64, against 29.91 times at last September's high. The market has already re-rated this company from a premium compounder to an ordinary retailer. The published estimate has priced in nothing of the sort. Consensus still asks for 11.3% earnings growth and 3.7% domestic same-store sales, which is an acceleration from the 7.7% earnings growth the company delivered last quarter. Analysts have been cutting price targets rather than numbers: Citigroup went to $3,450 from $3,700 and TD Cowen to $3,500 from $3,700, both in the week before the print, and both are still more than 20% above the current price. So the stock is priced for disappointment and the estimate is not. That is the tension in this event.

Expected price move and durationiHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Options-Implied Move I cannot confirm a current figure and will not quote a stale one. What the chart gives instead is the average true range, $64.32 or 2.25% of the price, which is what this stock moves on an ordinary day. Historical Event Analysis Measured from Polygon's daily bars. AutoZone reports before the open, so the reaction is that session's close against the previous close. Fourth quarter fiscal 2025, reported 23 September 2025: the shares fell 0.02%, from $4,121.00 to $4,120.00, after opening 2.09% lower and recovering all of it during the day. First quarter fiscal 2026, reported 9 December 2025: the shares fell 7.17%, from $3,766.96 to $3,496.77. Earnings of $31.04 missed the $32.71 expected. The next session fell a further 2.16%. Second quarter fiscal 2026, reported 3 March 2026: the shares fell 6.32%, from $3,882.47 to $3,637.17, after opening 5.99% lower. Earnings of $27.63 beat the $27.17 expected and revenue of $4.27 billion missed $4.31 billion. Third quarter fiscal 2026, reported 26 May 2026: the shares fell 8.99%, from $3,406.50 to $3,100.11, after opening 5.62% lower. Earnings of $38.07 beat the $36.22 expected and revenue of $4.84 billion missed $4.86 billion by less than half a percent. The following three sessions fell 2.34%, 0.67% and 2.39%, so the loss kept going for a week. The through-line is that beating on earnings has not helped twice in a row. Both of those quarters were sold on a revenue miss of under half a percent. Historical Average Move Minus 5.63%, the average of those four. Unlike most averages on this site that one is representative rather than dominated by an outlier: three of the four sit between minus 6.32% and minus 8.99%. Our Expected Move Plus 5% to plus 10% if domestic same-store sales come in at or above 3.7% and earnings clear $54.22. Minus 6% to minus 12% if same-store sales land near the 2.5% UBS expects. Two signs because this is a mixed call, and each is tied to the outcome that produces it. Same-store sales are the switch. The upside band is wider than anything this stock has done on a results day in a year, and that is deliberate. A stock at a two-year low with a lowered set of expectations and three consecutive falls behind it has a short base positioned against it, and the bounce off a genuinely good sales number would be larger than the chart's recent history suggests. Impact Strength High. This is the last fiscal 2026 number and the first quarter where the accounting drag turns from a headwind into a comparison the company laps, so it is the cleanest read available on whether the underlying business slowed or only the reported profit did. Estimated Duration 1 to 3 trading days for the bulk of it, with a caveat drawn from May. After the third quarter the selling ran for four sessions, not one, and took the stock 13.8% below where it started the week. If the sales line disappoints again, expect a drift rather than a single gap. None of these figures is the same claim. The average true range is what happens on an ordinary day, the historical average is what the last four results days did, and the expected move is my own conclusion drawn from both plus the setup.

Result needed for a big moveiWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.

The earnings line will not do it on its own. Two of the last three quarters beat on earnings and the stock fell 6.32% and 8.99% anyway. What moves this stock up is domestic same-store sales at or above 3.7% with commercial sales near the expected $1.95 billion, together with a gross margin that stops going backwards now that the inventory charge is roughly $30 million instead of $80 million. That combination says the last year was an accounting story and a tariff timing story rather than a demand story, and on 19.64 times earnings there is room for that to be repriced. What moves it down is a fourth consecutive quarter where sales come in light. Domestic same-store sales near 2.5%, or any sign that the do-it-yourself customer is deferring repairs, and the argument stops being about accounting.

Possible outcomesiThe main ways the event could turn out, with the expected stock reaction for each one.

Positive outcome. Domestic same-store sales at or above 3.7%, earnings above $54.22, and gross margin up against last year. Expected stock reaction: a rise of 5% to 10%. This is the outcome where a two-year low turns out to have been the bottom of an accounting cycle. Neutral outcome. Same-store sales between 3% and 3.7% with earnings roughly in line. Expected stock reaction: a move of 2% to 5% in either direction. This is the most likely single outcome and it settles nothing, which on this stock has recently meant the sellers win the afternoon. Negative outcome. Domestic same-store sales near 2.5%, or a margin that misses despite the smaller charge. Expected stock reaction: a fall of 6% to 12%, which takes the shares somewhere they have not traded in more than two years.

Other affected stocksiOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.

O'Reilly Automotive is the closest comparison and the one that matters most, because the two report on the same industry demand and any same-store sales surprise here is read straight across. Advance Auto Parts is the weakest operator in the group and usually exaggerates the move. Genuine Parts Company covers the same repair-shop demand through NAPA. Dorman Products supplies replacement parts into these shelves and reacts to the volume story rather than the retail margin one. LKQ Corporation sells recycled and aftermarket collision parts and moves on the same question about whether people are spending money on older cars.

What the market may be missingiSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.

Three results days in a row were sold on quarters that carried an inventory accounting charge of 212, 138 and 77 basis points of gross margin. This quarter laps the first big one. Last year's fourth quarter took an $80 million charge, the first of the series, and the company said it cost $3.57 of earnings per share and 128 basis points of gross margin. Management has guided to roughly $30 million this time. That is not a forecast I am making, it is a figure the finance director gave on the May call, and it means the year-on-year comparison on that line flips from a headwind to a help for the first time since this decline began. The company also said it is now lapping the tariff-driven cost inflation that started in the fourth quarter of last year, so the pressure should be muted from here rather than building. The overlooked risk sits on the other side of the same page, and it is the reason this card is mixed rather than positive. The buyback has halved as an engine. AutoZone bought back 356,300 shares for $1.3 billion over the last twelve months, which is about 2.1% of the share count. For most of the last decade it retired 5% to 7% a year, and that shrinkage was a large part of why earnings per share compounded faster than profits. The money went somewhere: capital spending is running near $1.6 billion a year on new stores and distribution hubs, against free cash flow of $1.633 billion. So even if the margin pressure ends exactly as management describes, the share count is no longer doing the work it used to, and that part does not reverse when the tariff comparison does.

What else lands that dayiOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

Very little, which makes this a clean read. 22 September 2026 carries two scheduled macro items and both are second tier: the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey at 12:30 UTC and the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey at 14:00 UTC. There is no Federal Reserve event, no inflation print and no jobs data. The September index rebalance took effect the previous day and quarter-end flows do not begin in earnest until the following week. Two things are worth flagging anyway. The Richmond survey lands at 14:00 UTC, which is the minute AutoZone's conference call starts, so a sharp move in the first hour of the call may not be management's doing. And the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate to 3.75% to 4% on 16 September 2026, its first increase in three years, with the market pricing one more this year. A retailer whose customer is already stretched does not want a tightening cycle, and that backdrop is part of why the multiple has come down all year. Two other consumer companies report the same morning: Thor Industries before the open and KB Home after the close. Neither competes with AutoZone, but an ugly number from either would colour how the market reads consumer spending that day. Net effect: the day is clear and the move will be AutoZone's own, which is the useful case. The size of the reaction will be real information about how much of a weak quarter was already in the price.

Main risksiWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.

The first risk is that this is the fourth quarter in a row where sales come in light. Three consecutive misses of under half a percent produced falls of 7.17%, 6.32% and 8.99%. A fourth would confirm a trend rather than a run of bad luck, and the reaction would likely be worse than any of them. The second is the do-it-yourself customer. The industry read into this print is that demand decelerated across the sector on higher fuel prices, and the do-it-yourself half of AutoZone's business is the discretionary half. People defer a brake job. They cannot defer a failed battery, but they choose when to do everything else. The third is that the gross margin does not improve even with the smaller charge. If the underlying merchandise margin is deteriorating behind the accounting noise, this quarter is where that finally becomes visible, and the whole bull argument on this card goes with it. The fourth is the level. The stock broke a floor near $2,900 on 18 September that had held in June, July and August, and it closed at the lowest level in at least two years. There is no tested support underneath it. Overall risk level: High.

Other factorsiAnything else worth knowing that the sections above do not cover.

The balance sheet is a deliberate choice rather than a constraint. Total debt is $9.02 billion against adjusted leverage of 2.5 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and rent, which is the level the company runs to keep its investment-grade rating. AutoZone has carried negative book equity for years because it has bought back more stock than its accounting book value, and that is a feature of the model, not distress. The board authorised another $1.5 billion of buybacks on 16 June 2026, on top of the $804.2 million left at the end of the third quarter. Buying at $2,855 retires roughly 50% more shares per dollar than buying at last September's high did. That does not stop a bad number being sold. It does shorten how long the selling lasts.

Trend over 6 to 12 monthsiWhich way the share price has been heading over the past year, and how far it has travelled.

Down, without qualification, and getting worse rather than stabilising. The shares fell 32.54% over 52 weeks, 14.55% over six months, 6.83% over three months and 7.20% over the last month. The 52-week range is $2,815.00 to $4,332.68. The high was set on 30 September 2025, a week after the previous fourth quarter results. The low was set on 18 September 2026, the last session before this card was written, which puts the current close 2.7% of the way up its own yearly range.

Recent price actioniWhat the shares have done over the last few weeks and sessions, and on what kind of volume.

The last three weeks are a series of failed rallies. From $2,983.29 on 4 September 2026 the shares fell to $2,876.75 by 11 September, rallied 3.09% to $2,965.52 on 14 September, then gave all of it back over the next three sessions to close at $2,844.31 on 17 September. On 18 September the stock opened at $2,825.28, traded down to $2,815.00, and closed at $2,855.31 on 428,839 shares, the heaviest volume of the last twelve sessions. So the two-year low was made and partly bought back on the largest turnover of the month, which is the one genuinely two-sided session in the recent record.

Market structureiThe shape of the chart. Rising highs and rising lows mean an uptrend, falling ones mean a downtrend, and neither means the price is stuck in a range.

A clean downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows on every timescale that matters: $4,332.68 last September, $3,996.24 in December, $3,887.03 in February, $3,729.82 in May, $3,239.14 in July, $3,160.00 in August and $3,007.88 so far in September. The important structural event is recent. Monthly lows were $2,928.11 in June, $2,902.20 in July and $2,903.57 in August, a shelf just above $2,900 that held three times. It broke on 18 September. A floor that has held for three months and then gives way is normally revisited from below before anything changes.

Support and resistance zonesiPrice areas where buyers have stepped in before, and price areas where sellers have. They often slow the price down when it gets there again.

Below the current price the only reference is Friday's low at $2,815.00, and beneath that there is nothing tested in the two-year record I measured. The stock has not closed below $2,855.31 at any point since September 2024, so a close under Friday's low puts it in territory with no recent price memory in it. Above, the first zone is $2,965 to $2,990, which covers the 14 September high of $2,973.99 and the early-September highs near $2,988. The 50-day average at $2,996.86 sits immediately on top of that zone, which makes $2,965 to $3,000 one thick band of resistance rather than two thin ones. Above that the next real level is the 200-day average at $3,336.16, which is 16.84% away.

50-day and 200-day moving averagesiThe average closing price over the last 50 days and the last 200 days. Where the price sits against them shows whether the recent trend is strong or fading.

A moving average is the average closing price over that many trading days, drawn as a line so the trend can be read without checking every session. The 50-day average is $2,996.86 and the 200-day is $3,336.16. The price is 4.72% below the 50-day and 14.41% below the 200-day, and the 50-day sits $339.30 below the 200-day. That arrangement, price under the shorter average and the shorter average well under the longer one, is a downtrend in its established phase rather than its early one. It also means any rally has two ceilings above it before the chart changes character.

Relative strengthiHow this stock has performed against the wider market and against its own sector over the same period.

Weak on every window. Over 52 weeks AutoZone fell 32.54% against a 15.55% rise in the S and P 500 tracking fund, a gap of 48.09 percentage points. Over six months it fell 14.55% against a 15.44% rise, a gap of 29.99 points. Over three months it fell 6.83% against a 2.00% rise. The only window where it is close is the last month, where it fell 7.20% against a 0.63% fall in the index, and it still lost by more than six points. There is no timeframe on which this stock has been keeping up.

Volume trendiHow many shares are changing hands lately compared with normal. Heavy volume behind a move means more traders agree with it.

Rising into the decline, which is the part of this chart that should give a buyer pause. The 20-day average is 314,575 shares against a 50-day average of 232,261, so recent activity is running 35.4% above the longer average. Volume expanding while price makes new lows means the selling is being done by people who need to be out rather than by drift. The 428,839 shares traded on 18 September were the heaviest of the month and came on the day the floor broke.

VolatilityiHow much the share price swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.

The 14-day average true range is $64.32, or 2.25% of the $2,855.31 price. The average daily high-to-low range over the last 20 sessions is $58.29, or 2.04%. Realised volatility is 23.30% over 14 days and 26.33% over 50 days, annualised. Those are ordinary readings for a large retailer and they are the reason the results-day moves stand out so much: a stock that moves 2.25% on a normal day has fallen 6% to 9% on each of its last three results days, which is three to four ordinary days of movement in one session. Size a position for the day, not for the week before it.

Long-Term Technical ViewiThe wider chart over years. The big trend, the major price levels and how much the stock swings.

The two-year record shows a stock that climbed from roughly $3,150 in September 2024 to $4,290 by the end of September 2025 and has given all of that back and more. The whole of the advance has now been retraced. Long-term support cannot be read off the last two years, because the current price is below everything in them. The honest statement is that the chart has run out of reference points on the downside and that the next one would have to come from 2024 or earlier. Long-term resistance is the 200-day average at $3,336.16 and then last September's high.

Technical biasiWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.

Bearish. Four facts hold it there and none of them is close. The price is below both moving averages and the 50-day is $339.30 below the 200-day. Every monthly high since September 2025 is lower than the one before it. The three-month floor near $2,900 broke on 18 September. And the volume behind that break was 35.4% above the 50-day average. This bearish chart argues with the mixed call above rather than agreeing with it, and that disagreement is the honest state of this trade. The chart says the sellers have been right all year. The accounting comparison says the reason they were right expires this quarter. Only one of those gets tested on Tuesday.

What would invalidate this biasiThe price level or chart change that would prove the technical read wrong.

A daily close above $3,000 would turn the bias neutral, because it would put the price back above the 50-day average and through the band of September highs in one move. A daily close above $3,336.16, the 200-day average, would turn it bullish, and it is worth saying how far that is: 16.84% above the current price, which is more than the upper end of my expected move on a good result. One good quarter fixes the immediate trend. It does not fix this chart.

Technical data timestampiWhen the chart figures above were taken. Markets keep moving, so check live charts before you trade.

Every price, average, range and volume figure in this group is computed from Polygon's daily bars through the regular session that ended at 20:00 UTC on 18 September 2026. Markets move after this is written. Check a live chart before placing any trade.

Stock OverviewiThe basic numbers. Price, size of the company, sector, the past year of highs and lows, trading volume and the next earnings date.

AZO trades at $2,855.31 at the close on 18 September 2026. Market value is approximately $46.74 billion on the 16.369 million shares outstanding at 9 May 2026, the last count the company has published. It operates in the consumer discretionary sector and the specialty automotive retail industry. Its 52-week range is $2,815.00 to $4,332.68. Recent average daily volume is about 315,000 shares. Fourth quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results are due on 22 September 2026.

What the company doesiThe business in plain words. What it sells, who buys it, and how the money reaches the company.

AutoZone sells the parts that keep older cars running. Brakes, batteries, alternators, filters, wipers, oil. It had 7,856 stores at 9 May 2026: 6,766 in the United States, 933 in Mexico and 157 in Brazil. There are two customers. One is the person who fixes their own car, walks into the store and buys the part over the counter. The other is the independent repair shop that needs a part delivered within half an hour, which the company calls its commercial business. The second one is growing much faster and is the reason for the heavy spending on larger hub stores that carry deeper inventory. The business does well when cars get older and people keep them longer, and badly when households defer maintenance. The fiscal year ends on the last Saturday of August.

Revenue BreakdowniWhere the money comes from, split by product, by part of the business and by country.

Trailing twelve-month revenue is $19.99 billion. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 the split was roughly three quarters domestic retail and commercial sales in the United States, with Mexico and Brazil making up the international remainder. The two growth rates inside that are very different. Domestic commercial sales grew 10.4% in the third quarter, to a quarterly run rate the market expects to reach $1.95 billion in the quarter being reported. International comparable sales grew 1.6% in constant currency over the same period, and management said plainly that international has been below its own plan.

Company GrowthiHow sales, profit, earnings per share and spare cash have changed over the last few years.

Sales grew from $18.5 billion in fiscal 2024 to $18.9 billion in fiscal 2025, and trailing revenue is now $19.99 billion. In fiscal 2026 the quarterly growth rates have been 8.2%, 8.1% and 8.4%. Profit has not followed. Net income was $2,498.2 million in fiscal 2025, down 6.2%, and diluted earnings per share were $144.87. Through the first 36 weeks of fiscal 2026 earnings per share rose 0.5% to $96.69 while sales rose 8.3%. Company growth is Medium. The top line is growing at a respectable mid to high single-digit rate and the bottom line has been flat for a year, which is a different company from the one that compounded earnings per share in the mid teens for a decade.

Earnings PerformanceiThe latest results, whether they beat or missed what the market expected, and what the company says comes next.

The record of the last four quarters is the whole story of this card. Fourth quarter fiscal 2025, reported 23 September 2025: earnings of $48.71, down 5.6%, gross margin 51.5%, down 98 basis points, on an $80 million inventory accounting charge worth $3.57 of earnings per share. Total same-store sales rose 5.1%. First quarter fiscal 2026, reported 9 December 2025: sales $4.6 billion, up 8.2%, same-store sales up 4.7%, earnings $31.04 against $32.71 expected, gross margin down 203 basis points on a 212 basis point accounting charge. Second quarter fiscal 2026, reported 3 March 2026: sales $4.27 billion against $4.31 billion expected, same-store sales up 3.3%, earnings $27.63 against $27.17 expected, gross margin 51.7%, down 171 basis points on a 138 basis point charge. Third quarter fiscal 2026, reported 26 May 2026: sales $4.84 billion against $4.86 billion expected, same-store sales up 3.9% with domestic up 4.1%, earnings $38.07 against $36.22 expected and up 7.7%, gross margin 52.2%, down 57 basis points on a 77 basis point charge. Operating profit rose 6.6% to $923.8 million. Read together: sales close to expectations every time, earnings mostly ahead, margin down every time, share price down every time.

Financial HealthiCash, debt, cash flow and profit margins, and whether the company keeps issuing new shares. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.

Total debt is $9.02 billion with adjusted leverage of 2.5 times, the level the company manages to for its investment-grade rating. Free cash flow was $1.633 billion over the trailing twelve months, against capital spending running near $1.6 billion a year on new stores and hubs. Merchandise inventory was $7.56 billion at 9 May 2026, up 10.8%, and suppliers finance 111.1% of it. Financial health is Average, and that is a rating on flexibility rather than on solvency. The debt is comfortably serviced and the cash generation is real. But free cash flow and capital spending are now nearly the same number, which means every dollar of buyback is effectively funded by new borrowing, and that is a different position from the one this company traded on for a decade.

ValuationiWhat you pay today for what the company earns, next to its rivals and its own past. Rated Cheap, Fair or Expensive.

Trailing twelve-month earnings per share are $145.40, being $48.71 from the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 plus $96.69 since. At $2,855.31 that is a trailing price to earnings ratio of 19.64. If the fourth quarter comes in at the expected $54.22, full-year earnings are $150.91 and the ratio on those is 18.92. For context, at the $4,332.68 high last September the stock traded at 29.91 times the $144.87 it had just earned. The multiple has fallen by a third in a year while earnings have been flat. Free cash flow of $1.633 billion against a market value of $46.74 billion is a yield of 3.49%. Enterprise value including the $9.02 billion of debt is about $55.76 billion. Valuation is Fair. Not cheap: 19.64 times is close to where this company has traded through most of its history, and the free cash flow yield is unremarkable. What has gone is the premium, not the price.

ShareholdersiWho owns the company. Big funds, company insiders, and whether ownership sits with only a few holders.

AutoZone is a large-capitalisation index constituent and ownership is dominated by the major index fund managers. I cannot confirm current precise holdings percentages for individual institutions, so I am not quoting them. One structural point does matter: with only about 16.4 million shares in existence, every $1 billion of buyback retires a large percentage of the company, which is why the share count is a bigger part of this equity story than it is for almost any other large US retailer.

Insider ActivityiWhether the people running the company have been buying or selling their own shares lately.

I cannot confirm any specific open-market insider transaction in the period covered by this card. Routine scheduled sales and equity-award activity at a company of this size should not be read as a signal in either direction.

Dividends and BuybacksiCash paid out to shareholders, whether that payment looks safe, and whether the company is buying back its own shares.

There is no dividend. AutoZone has never paid one, and the entire shareholder return is the buyback. That buyback bought 356,300 shares for $1.3 billion over the trailing twelve months, about 2.1% of the shares outstanding. In the third quarter alone it spent $586.3 million on 164,000 shares at an average of $3,582, which is 25.5% above Friday's close. The board added $1.5 billion of authorisation on 16 June 2026, on top of the $804.2 million remaining at the quarter end. The rate is the thing to watch. A company retiring 2% of itself a year at 19.64 times earnings is a different investment from one retiring 6% a year, and the difference is capital spending that has roughly doubled.

Competitive PositioniWho the company competes with, how much of the market it holds, and what it has that rivals do not.

The direct competitors are O'Reilly Automotive, Advance Auto Parts, Genuine Parts through NAPA, and the parts counters of the car dealers themselves. AutoZone and O'Reilly are the two strong operators, Advance Auto Parts is the weak one whose share the other two have been taking for years. The advantage is distribution. Winning a repair shop's business depends on having the part in stock and at the door quickly, and that is a function of how much inventory sits how close to the customer. The hub build-out is exactly that argument, and it is why the capital spending has risen. The vulnerability is that the same build-out is being funded during a period of flat earnings, and a competitor that spent earlier is spending less now.

Future OutlookiWhat sales and profit are expected to do next, and what management has promised.

My view on the company is neutral. Sales growing 8%, stores opening at a rate of 355 to 365 a year, and the commercial business growing above 10% is not a business in trouble. Flat earnings per share for a year, a halved buyback rate and an international arm running below plan are not a business firing either. My view on the stock is that the next twelve months hinge on whether the margin recovers as the accounting charge fades. If it does, earnings growth returns to the low teens on the existing sales rate and 19.64 times earnings is too low. If the margin stays down once that excuse expires, the de-rating has further to run, because the remaining case rests on a buyback that is now half the size it was.

Other Upcoming Company CatalystsiOther events ahead that could move the share price, such as results, launches or approvals, apart from the catalyst this report is built on.

First quarter fiscal 2027 results are due in December 2026, which is the print that will show whether the margin recovery continued once the easiest comparison has passed. O'Reilly Automotive reports in late October and is the closest read-through on industry demand between now and then. The annual shareholder meeting falls in December. Any change in the pace of buybacks, which the company discloses each quarter, would move this stock outside a results day.

Long-Term Company RisksiWhat could weaken the business over the coming years, rather than around this one event.

The largest is the electric vehicle question, and it is a slow one rather than a near one. Battery vehicles need far fewer of the parts this company sells, and while the average American car is now well over twelve years old, the fleet arriving in the repair years a decade from now will contain a rising share of them. The second is the capital spending cycle. If $1.6 billion a year of stores and hubs does not translate into faster commercial growth, the company will have permanently reduced its buyback for no return. The third is the customer. The do-it-yourself half of this business is people choosing to spend a Saturday under a car instead of paying a shop, and that decision is made under financial pressure. Higher fuel prices and a rising policy rate both press on it. The fourth is competition from the strongest peer. O'Reilly's commercial business is larger and older, and in a period where AutoZone is spending to catch up, the gap can widen before it narrows.

Traderavel VerdictiOur straight answer on the company after everything above, not on the trade. Quality, growth, price, risk and the long-term view.

AutoZone is a good business in the middle of a bad year, and the argument on Tuesday is whether the bad year was accounting or demand. Sales are growing 8%, the commercial half is growing above 10%, and reported earnings per share have been flat for twelve months because an inventory accounting rule took 212, then 138, then 77 basis points of gross margin. That charge is roughly $30 million this quarter against $80 million a year ago, which means the comparison helps for the first time since the decline began. Growth is medium, financial health is average, company risk is medium and the valuation is fair. The long-term outlook is neutral, because the buyback that drove this company's returns for a decade now retires 2% a year rather than 6%, and that does not come back when the tariff comparison does. It suits patient investors who can hold a de-rating and who do not need the next quarter to be the turn. It does not suit anyone trading the print: the last three results days fell 7.17%, 6.32% and 8.99%, and the chart is at a two-year low with no tested support beneath it.