NVIDIA reports fiscal Q2 2027 results, with Q3 guidance and Vera Rubin timing in focus
- StockThe company this write-up is about, with its ticker symbol.
- NVDA, NVIDIA Corporation
- PriceWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and the exact minute that price was struck.
- $214.72
- Event Date And TimeWhen the event is expected. Shown in your own time zone, or in UTC if you switch the clock at the top of the page. If the exact hour is not confirmed, you only see the date.
- 21:00 26/August/2026
- What else lands that dayOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.
- CrowdedPCE inflation lands the same morning and Jackson Hole opens the next, so the session that prices this result is trading the Fed at the same time.
- Expected Stock ReactionWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.
- Negative
- ActionWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.
- Watch
- Catalyst confidenceHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.
- 72/100
- Stock-reaction confidenceHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.
- 61/100
Expected price move and durationHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.
- Our expected moveOur own estimate of the move, after weighing the market's estimate, the past moves and the situation now.
- Down 3% to 6% during the first one to three sessions.
- ImpactHow big we think that move is for this stock. Rated Low, Medium or High.
- High
- Other affected StocksOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.
- None
Upcoming catalystThe event that could move the share price.
NVIDIA fiscal Q2 2027 results on August 26, 2026. The earnings call begins at 21:00 UTC, which is 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
Main stock affectedThe company the event affects most directly.
NVIDIA Corporation, Nasdaq ticker NVDA.
Current priceWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.
$214.72 as of 21 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC, the regular-session close
Expected stock reactionWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.
Negative. I expect strong business results but a modestly negative stock reaction because the market demands a large revenue beat, strong Q3 guidance and firm gross margins at the same time.
Action before the eventWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.
Watch. Do not chase shares or buy expensive short-term calls before the report. My priority is a post-report trade after Q3 guidance is known. Buy a confirmed breakout only if guidance clears the bullish thresholds below. Use a defined-risk bearish trade if guidance misses them.
Why the stock is affectedThe link between the event and this company.
AI data-center chips generate most of NVIDIA’s growth. The report will show whether cloud companies are still increasing AI infrastructure spending fast enough to support NVIDIA’s valuation. Revenue matters, but Q3 guidance, gross margin and Vera Rubin production timing are more important. Weak guidance would suggest slower customer spending, supply problems or higher production costs.
Catalyst confidenceHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.
NVIDIA will probably beat its own $91.0 billion revenue midpoint. My forecast is $94 billion to $96 billion, with adjusted earnings of about $2.13 to $2.19 per share. I expect Q3 revenue guidance of $104 billion to $107 billion. Confidence: 72%.
Stock-reaction confidenceHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.
I assign a 61% probability to a negative initial reaction of about 3% to 6%. NVIDIA has declined after each of its last four earnings reports even though its operating results remained strong. The stock now needs more than a normal beat.
When the market will reactThe moment the price is likely to move, such as at the announcement or at the next market open.
The first move should occur after the earnings release on August 26. A second move may occur during the 21:00 UTC conference call. The main repricing window is the first two hours after the release and the following regular trading session.
Effect on the businessWhat the event changes for the company itself, such as its sales, costs or profit.
A strong report would confirm continued demand for Blackwell Ultra and support the Vera Rubin transition. This would lift future revenue and operating profit estimates. Gross margin near 75% would show that higher production complexity is not damaging profitability. A margin decline would reduce earnings even if revenue remains strong.
Market expectations and forecastWhat investors already expect from this event, and the numbers being forecast.
NVIDIA guided Q2 revenue to $91.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. The calculation is $91.0 billion multiplied by 2%, which equals $1.82 billion. The official guidance range is therefore $89.18 billion to $92.82 billion. Consensus revenue is about $93.61 billion and consensus earnings are about $2.13 per share. Revenue consensus is 2.9% above the company’s midpoint and 0.9% above the top of its range. My forecast is $94 billion to $96 billion of revenue. That is 0.4% to 2.6% above consensus. I forecast Q3 guidance of $104 billion to $107 billion, compared with consensus near $103.1 billion. These numbers would be excellent for most companies. For NVIDIA, the lower end may still trigger selling. The market appears to require Q3 guidance near or above $106 billion for a clear positive reaction. Recent price action and priced-in level Priced-in level: Medium to high. NVDA rose from $190.01 on July 29 to $225.01 on August 17. The calculation is $225.01 divided by $190.01, minus one, which equals an 18.4% rally. It then fell to $214.72, a 4.6% pullback from the August 17 level. It remains 13.0% above the July 29 close. August 21 volume was 98.9 million shares. This was about 42% below the 12-month average of roughly 170.0 million shares. The pullback therefore did not show unusually heavy selling. On August 21, AMD, Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor and Super Micro finished higher while NVDA fell 1.0%. This shows some stock-specific caution before NVIDIA’s report rather than a broad semiconductor selloff.
Expected price move and durationHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.
Options indicate a move of approximately 6.4% to 7.0%. From $214.72, a 7% move equals about $15.03. This creates an approximate range of $199.69 to $229.75. Base forecast: down 3% to 6% during the first one to three sessions. Impact rating: High. A major guidance surprise could affect NVDA and the wider semiconductor sector for several weeks.
Result needed for a big moveWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.
For a large positive move, NVIDIA likely needs all four of these results: Q2 revenue of at least $96 billion. Q3 guidance of at least $106 billion, preferably above $108 billion. Gross margin of at least 75% with no major decline forecast. Confirmation that Vera Rubin production and customer deployments remain on schedule. A major negative move becomes likely if Q3 guidance is below $103 billion, gross margin falls below 74.5%, or management reports Vera Rubin delays.
Possible outcomesThe main ways the event could turn out, with the expected stock reaction for each one.
Positive scenario: Q2 revenue above $96 billion, Q3 guidance above $106 billion, gross margin at or above 75%, and Vera Rubin remains on schedule. Expected reaction: up 7% to 12%. A close above $230 would strengthen the breakout. Neutral scenario: Q2 revenue of $93.5 billion to $96 billion, Q3 guidance of $103 billion to $106 billion, and gross margin close to 75%. Expected reaction: between down 3% and up 3%. Strong results would already be reflected in the price. Negative scenario: Q2 revenue below $93.5 billion, Q3 guidance below $103 billion, gross margin below 74.5%, or weaker Vera Rubin timing. Expected reaction: down 8% to 12%. A break below $200 could extend the decline.
Other affected stocksOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.
TSM may rise if NVIDIA confirms stronger production demand. VRT, DELL, HPE and SMCI may benefit from stronger demand for AI racks, servers, power and cooling systems. MU and MRVL may move with comments about memory, networking and AI system demand. AMD and AVGO may rise with strong industry demand. They could fall if NVIDIA signals slower cloud spending. CRWV is sensitive to NVIDIA supply, AI infrastructure demand and customer financing conditions.
What the market may be missingSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.
The reported Q2 beat may matter less than the quality of Q3 guidance. NVIDIA excluded China data-center compute revenue from its Q2 outlook. Any verified China contribution or clearer future access could create upside that is not fully included in current estimates. The opposite risk is that investors focus on revenue and ignore margins. Vera Rubin may support another growth cycle, but a complex product transition can raise manufacturing and system costs. Revenue can rise while earnings estimates fall if gross margin weakens.
What else lands that dayOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.
26 August 2026 is a heavy morning before a heavy evening. The second estimate of second quarter GDP, advance durable goods orders and personal income with the PCE deflator all arrive together at 12:30 UTC. The PCE deflator is the inflation measure the Federal Reserve says it targets, so it moves rate expectations and, through them, every richly valued technology stock including this one. NVIDIA then reports after the close at 21:00 UTC, into a tape that has already spent the day repricing rates. The following morning is not clear either: the Jackson Hole symposium opens on 27 August and runs to 29 August, and that is where policy direction gets signalled rather than released as data. Net effect: this result is not landing in a vacuum. It is landing in the middle of the most rate-sensitive forty-eight hours of the month, on the stock the whole index is most exposed to. What to expect on the day. The regular session on 26 August will trade inflation, not semiconductors, so do not read the day's move as positioning into the print. The reaction you want is in after hours from 21:00 UTC, and the session that prices it properly is 27 August, which is also the day Jackson Hole opens. A move that morning is two stories at once, and separating the guidance from the policy signal will not be possible in the first hour.
Main risksWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.
Unexpected China revenue could make my negative reaction forecast too cautious. Stronger-than-expected Vera Rubin production could push guidance above $108 billion. A broad technology rally could overpower a modest earnings disappointment. Options positioning could create a short squeeze if the stock moves above the implied upper range near $230. The earnings release may occur before the scheduled conference call, so the stock could move before 21:00 UTC.
Other factorsAnything else worth knowing that the sections above do not cover.
Short-term options expire two days after the report. Implied volatility will probably fall sharply once results are released. This makes outright calls and puts risky. Simple example: an option can price in a 7% stock move. If NVDA moves only 4% in your direction, the option can still lose money because the expected volatility disappears. My preferred trade is conditional. Buy shares only after a move above $230 if Q3 guidance is at least $106 billion and gross margin remains near or above 75%. If Q3 guidance is below $103 billion or gross margin is below 74.5%, prioritize a defined-risk bearish position after the first rebound rather than selling during the initial drop.
For information only · not financial advice.