Backblaze Investor Day will set the AI growth and long-term financial framework

Upcoming catalystiThe event that could move the share price.

Backblaze will hold its first Investor Day on September 9, 2026, at 13:30 UTC. Management plans to explain its AI strategy, product roadmap, market opportunity and long-term business model.

Main stock affectediThe company the event affects most directly.

Backblaze, Nasdaq ticker BLZE.

Current priceiWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.

$15.80 as of 21 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC, the regular-session close Main stock exchange: Nasdaq. Market value: approximately $961 million.

Expected stock reactioniWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Positive. My base case is that management presents credible multi-year growth targets and shows how the $335 million CoreWeave agreement changes Backblaze's scale. The reaction could still be volatile because expectations for AI growth have increased.

Action before the eventiWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Watch. Do not chase the shares or buy expensive options before Investor Day. The stock is highly volatile and the options market already prices a large move. My priority trade is to buy only after a regular-session close above $17.30 with strong volume. Initial upside zones are $19.80 to $20.50. A close below $15.40 after entry would weaken the setup. A second setup is a controlled pullback toward the rising 50-day moving average near $14.60. That setup requires price to hold above $13.90.

Why the stock is affectediThe link between the event and this company.

This is Backblaze's first Investor Day. Management can provide information that has never appeared in a normal earnings report, including multi-year revenue targets, expected capital spending, free cash flow goals and the economics of large AI infrastructure contracts. Backblaze recently signed a $335 million strategic agreement with CoreWeave. That contract is more than twice Backblaze's entire 2025 revenue of $145.8 million. Investors still need to know when the revenue begins, how quickly it ramps, how much new storage infrastructure is required and what margins the contract can produce. Clear answers could support a higher valuation. Weak margins, heavy capital spending or a slow revenue ramp would have the opposite effect.

Catalyst confidenceiHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

The event is officially scheduled, with a published starting time. Confidence that Investor Day occurs as scheduled is 97%. My forecast is that management presents an ambitious AI growth plan and new long-term financial targets. Confidence in that specific outcome is lower, at about 68%.

Stock-reaction confidenceiHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

63%. The likely direction is positive, but the share price has already reacted strongly to the CoreWeave contract and then fallen after a convertible-note offering. Small changes in management's targets could create a large move in either direction.

When the market will reactiThe moment the price is likely to move, such as at the announcement or at the next market open.

The first reaction should begin during the presentation at 13:30 UTC on September 9, while the US market is open. The largest move should occur during the presentation, the management question-and-answer session and the final two hours of that trading day. Analyst revisions and target-price changes could extend the reaction over the next one to three trading days.

Effect on the businessiWhat the event changes for the company itself, such as its sales, costs or profit.

The main issue is whether Backblaze can turn rapid B2 Cloud Storage growth into durable revenue and cash flow. Q2 2026 B2 revenue rose 34% year over year to $26.6 million. Total revenue rose 18% to $42.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 30%, up from 18% one year earlier. If Investor Day shows that large AI customers can be added without damaging margins, the market could assign Backblaze a higher revenue multiple. If new contracts require large hardware and data-centre investments before revenue arrives, free cash flow could remain weaker than adjusted EBITDA suggests.

Market expectations and forecastiWhat investors already expect from this event, and the numbers being forecast.

Management's current 2026 guidance is revenue of $172 million to $174 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 27% to 29%. The revenue midpoint is $173 million, representing approximately 18.6% growth from 2025. The market will probably expect management to explain how growth can accelerate after 2026. My forecast is that Backblaze targets total revenue growth above 20% over the next several years, led by B2 Cloud Storage, while maintaining an adjusted EBITDA margin near or above the high-20% range. For a strong positive trade, I would want three things. A total revenue growth target above 20%, a clear CoreWeave deployment schedule and a believable path to a free cash flow margin above 10%. A target near current 18% growth with no clear contract schedule would be disappointing.

How much is already priced iniHow much of the expected outcome the share price already reflects before the event happens.

Medium. The CoreWeave agreement and Q2 results produced a two-day rise from $13.72 on July 31 to $19.79 on August 4, a gain of 44.2%. The stock later reached a $23.99 intraday high. The subsequent $175 million convertible-note offering pulled the shares back to $15.80. The current price still reflects much more optimism than the March 2026 low, but it no longer reflects the most aggressive expectations seen immediately after the CoreWeave announcement. Investors know that Backblaze has a large AI contract. They do not yet have enough information to model the contract's revenue timing, capital requirements and margins. That missing information leaves room for repricing.

Expected price move and durationiHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Options-Implied Move The options market implies a move of approximately ±17.0% through the September 18, 2026 expiration. The ± figure measures the expected size of the move, not its direction. Implied volatility was about 97%, while recent historical volatility was about 120%. Options are expensive in absolute terms, so buying calls before the presentation requires a larger move than buying shares after confirmation. Historical Event Analysis Backblaze has not previously held an Investor Day. There is no clean historical sample of the same event. Recent earnings and strategic updates show how sensitive the stock is to new guidance: August 3, 2026 earnings and CoreWeave update: the next-session move was +26.9%. The five-session move was approximately +23.6%. May 4, 2026 earnings update: the next-session move was +63.6%. The five-session move was approximately +54.1%. February 23, 2026 earnings update: the next-session move was -14.0%. November 6, 2025 earnings update: the next-session move was -33.8%. These are useful evidence of event volatility, but they are not Investor Days. I have excluded them from a formal historical average. Historical Average Move A reliable historical average cannot be calculated because this is the company's first Investor Day. The available earnings reactions are too different from the scheduled event to treat them as the same catalyst. Our Expected Move +6% to +12% in the base case. This is below the options-implied ±17.0% because much of the AI opportunity is known and approval or rejection is not involved. It is also below recent earnings moves because Investor Day will not include a full quarterly earnings surprise. A move above +12% would probably require quantified targets that materially exceed the current 2026 growth rate. Impact Strength High. Backblaze has a market value below $1 billion, a concentrated AI narrative and a first-time Investor Day. A change in long-term growth or capital-spending assumptions can materially change the valuation. Estimated Duration 1-3 trading days. The first move will probably be fast. It could become a several-week repricing if analysts materially increase 2027 and 2028 revenue forecasts.

Result needed for a big moveiWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.

A gain above 15% would probably require management to provide all of the following: Total revenue growth above 20% for several years. A clear schedule showing meaningful CoreWeave revenue beginning within the next four quarters. Evidence that AI contracts can maintain attractive adjusted gross margins. A free cash flow target that supports the current valuation without repeated capital raises. Additional large-customer opportunities beyond CoreWeave.

Possible outcomesiThe main ways the event could turn out, with the expected stock reaction for each one.

Positive scenario: Management targets revenue growth above 20%, explains a near-term CoreWeave ramp and sets a credible double-digit free cash flow margin goal. Expected reaction is +12% to +22%. Neutral scenario: Management repeats the AI opportunity but provides few new numbers. Growth targets remain near the current high-teens rate. Expected reaction is -3% to +4%. Negative scenario: The contract ramp is slow, capital spending is much higher than expected or long-term growth remains below 20%. Expected reaction is -12% to -25%.

Other affected stocksiOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.

CRWV could receive a positive read-through if Backblaze confirms rapid deployment under the CoreWeave agreement. DOCN, NET and AKAM are competing providers of cloud infrastructure, storage or network services. Strong Backblaze targets could suggest increased competitive pressure in AI-focused cloud services. WDC and STX could benefit indirectly from greater demand for high-capacity hard drives. I cannot confirm that either company is a direct supplier for the planned expansion. DBX has exposure to cloud-based data storage and backup. Backblaze's Computer Backup trends can provide a limited demand read-through, although the business models differ.

What the market may be missingiSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.

The CoreWeave contract is both an opportunity and a concentration risk. The $335 million agreement is huge relative to Backblaze's current revenue. Even a partial ramp could accelerate growth. However, one large customer can gain negotiating power and make quarterly results less predictable. The second overlooked issue is the difference between adjusted EBITDA and cash flow. Storage growth requires servers, hard drives, leases and data-centre capacity. A contract can appear profitable under adjusted EBITDA while consuming cash during deployment.

What else lands that dayiOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

9 September 2026 has effectively nothing on the US macro calendar. The only scheduled release is employer costs for employee compensation at 14:00 UTC, which is a Bureau of Labor Statistics reference series rather than something the market trades. What the day does have is Apple's product event at 17:00 UTC, which is no competitor to Backblaze in any business sense but is where the technology tape's attention and every technology reporter will be that afternoon. An investor day starting at the opening bell has a few hours of clear air before that. The two mornings after are macro: producer prices at 12:30 UTC on 10 September and consumer prices at 12:30 UTC on 11 September. Net effect: the morning is genuinely clear, the afternoon is not, and the follow-through sessions belong to inflation data. What to expect on the day. The reaction that reflects the investor day happens between the open at 13:30 UTC and the early afternoon, and that is the window worth watching. Once Apple begins, expect coverage and speculative technology flow to move elsewhere, and expect a thin small-capitalisation stock to drift on low volume rather than to keep re-rating. Anything still open by Thursday morning is a position in a stock whose sector is trading the inflation print.

Main risksiWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.

Overall risk level is High. The long-term targets could disappoint elevated AI expectations. The CoreWeave revenue ramp could start later than investors expect. New infrastructure could require substantial capital spending and lease financing. The $175 million convertible notes create future dilution risk above the initial $21.94 conversion price, although capped-call transactions are intended to reduce dilution up to a higher cap. The stock's recent average daily range is large enough to trigger tight stops during normal trading. A broad decline in AI infrastructure stocks could overwhelm positive company news.

Other factorsiAnything else worth knowing that the sections above do not cover.

The options market is expensive. A long call can lose value even if the stock rises slightly because implied volatility may fall after Investor Day. The better risk-controlled setup is confirmation through the shares. Wait for price and volume to show that investors accept management's targets.

Trend over 6 to 12 monthsiWhich way the share price has been heading over the past year, and how far it has travelled.

The primary trend is rising. BLZE gained approximately 259% over the six months ending August 21, 2026, and approximately 92% over 12 months. The highest verified closing price in the recent advance was $20.43 on August 13. The highest intraday price was $23.99 on August 4. I cannot confirm the exact lowest closing price for the full period. The lowest verified intraday price was $3.26 around March 30, 2026.

Recent price actioniWhat the shares have done over the last few weeks and sessions, and on what kind of volume.

The stock gained 36.1% over the month ending August 21, but that figure hides a sharp reversal. BLZE closed at $13.72 on July 31 and $19.79 on August 4 after Q2 results and details of the CoreWeave relationship. That was a 44.2% two-session increase. It then fell from the $23.99 August 4 intraday high to $15.80 on August 21, a 34.1% decline from the high. The largest recent decline was 12.1% on August 19 when the convertible-note financing was announced. Volume was heavy during both the earnings rally and financing decline. The average volume over August 19 to August 21 was approximately 6.34 million shares, compared with a recent normal level near 1.9 million shares. The current price is 65.9% below the $23.99 52-week high in distance terms and 384.7% above the $3.26 low. Expressed within the range, it sits about 60.5% of the way from the low to the high.

Market structureiThe shape of the chart. Rising highs and rising lows mean an uptrend, falling ones mean a downtrend, and neither means the price is stuck in a range.

The medium-term chart still shows higher highs and higher lows. The short-term chart is correcting after a rapid advance. The most visible short-term range is approximately $15.50 to $20.50. In simple terms, buyers have recently appeared around $15.50 to $16.00, while sellers have repeatedly appeared near $19.00 to $20.50. A sustained move above $20.50 would restart the breakout structure. A break below $14.40 would damage it.

Support and resistance zonesiPrice areas where buyers have stepped in before, and price areas where sellers have. They often slow the price down when it gets there again.

First support is $15.50 to $16.00. This zone was tested during three consecutive sessions from August 19 through August 21. A close below it would expose the 50-day moving average. Second support is $14.40 to $14.70. This includes the rising 50-day moving average and the upper area of the pre-earnings gap. A close below this zone would change the short-term structure from corrective to weak. Third support is $12.60 to $13.40. This was an active trading zone before the August earnings gap and was tested several times in late July. First resistance is $17.30. This was the August 19 session high and is the first level required for a recovery. Second resistance is $18.60 to $20.50. Price traded or reversed in this area repeatedly between August 5 and August 18. Major resistance is $23.00 to $24.00. It contains the August 4 spike high and has only been tested once.

50-day and 200-day moving averagesiThe average closing price over the last 50 days and the last 200 days. Where the price sits against them shows whether the recent trend is strong or fading.

A moving average is the average closing price over a set number of trading days. The 50-day simple moving average was approximately $14.61 at the August 21 close. Price was 8.1% above it. The average was rising. The 200-day simple moving average was approximately $7.40. Price was 113.5% above it. The average was rising. The 50-day average was above the 200-day average, a bullish arrangement. The exact date of the latest upward crossover cannot be confirmed.

Relative strengthiHow this stock has performed against the wider market and against its own sector over the same period.

Over 12 months, BLZE gained approximately 92.2%. SPY gained approximately 21.8%. BLZE therefore outperformed the broad market by about 70.4 percentage points. The cloud-computing sector fund WCLD gained about 19.3% over a comparable 52-week window. BLZE outperformed it by roughly 72.9 percentage points. Over the latest month, BLZE gained 36.1%, SPY gained 2.3% and WCLD gained about 20.7%. BLZE is still leading, but its leadership weakened after the convertible-note announcement.

Volume trendiHow many shares are changing hands lately compared with normal. Heavy volume behind a move means more traders agree with it.

Volume has risen sharply. The August 4 rally traded approximately 11.8 million shares. The August 20 decline traded approximately 9.8 million shares. Both were far above the recent average near 1.9 million shares. Heavy volume confirmed that both the bullish earnings reaction and the bearish financing reaction were taken seriously. This is not a quiet chart. Large groups of buyers and sellers are actively changing positions.

VolatilityiHow much the share price swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.

The 20-day average true range was approximately $1.89, or 11.9% of the $15.80 share price. The recent average daily high-to-low range was approximately $1.50, or 9.5%. Annualised historical volatility was approximately 120%, compared with options-implied volatility near 97%. This is high volatility. A normal daily move can exceed 10%. Position sizes should be smaller than normal, and stops need enough space to avoid being triggered by ordinary price movement.

Long-Term Technical ViewiThe wider chart over years. The big trend, the major price levels and how much the stock swings.

The multi-year chart shows a deep post-IPO decline followed by a strong 2026 recovery. The stock has returned to the broad area around its original public-market valuation but remains highly volatile. Major long-term support is around $7 to $10. Major long-term resistance is around $20 to $24.

Technical biasiWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.

Bullish. Price is above rising 50-day and 200-day moving averages. BLZE has strongly outperformed the market and cloud sector over six and 12 months. The short-term pullback has not yet broken the medium-term trend. This agrees with the expected positive catalyst reaction. The technical view has lower weight than the Investor Day information because management's long-term targets can quickly change the valuation.

What would invalidate this biasiThe price level or chart change that would prove the technical read wrong.

A regular-session close below $14.40 would invalidate the immediate bullish bias and change it to Neutral. A close below $12.60 on heavy volume would create a Bearish structure and suggest that the earnings gap is failing.

Technical data timestampiWhen the chart figures above were taken. Markets keep moving, so check live charts before you trade.

The price and technical indicators use data through the August 21, 2026 regular-session close at 20:00 UTC. Markets move after a report is written. Check live charts, current moving averages and current support levels before placing a trade.

Stock OverviewiThe basic numbers. Price, size of the company, sector, the past year of highs and lows, trading volume and the next earnings date.

Backblaze traded at $15.80 at the latest verified August 24, 2026 premarket reference. Market value was approximately $961 million. Sector: Information technology. Industry: Cloud storage and infrastructure software. 52-week range: $3.26 to $23.99. Recent normal daily volume: approximately 1.9 million shares. Three-month average volume has been higher because of major event days. The next earnings report is estimated for early November 2026. The company has not confirmed the exact date.

What the company doesiThe business in plain words. What it sells, who buys it, and how the money reaches the company.

Backblaze stores customers' digital information in its own cloud infrastructure. B2 Cloud Storage lets businesses store large quantities of data for backup, applications, media files, cybersecurity and AI workloads. Customers usually pay according to the amount of data stored or through committed contracts. Computer Backup protects files on personal and business computers. Customers normally pay a recurring subscription. A simple example is a video company that creates thousands of large files. Instead of buying and maintaining its own building full of servers, it pays Backblaze to store those files and make them available when needed.

Revenue BreakdowniWhere the money comes from, split by product, by part of the business and by country.

Q2 2026 revenue was $42.7 million. B2 Cloud Storage produced $26.6 million, or 62.2% of total revenue. Computer Backup produced $16.1 million, or 37.8%. Consumption-based arrangements produced $25.9 million, or 60.7%. Subscription arrangements produced $16.7 million, or 39.1%. Point-in-time sales were less than 1%. The United States produced $30.9 million, or 72.3%. The United Kingdom produced 5.2%, Canada produced 4.4% and other countries produced approximately 18.1%. Backblaze now depends most heavily on B2 Cloud Storage. A slowdown in B2 would reduce the company's total growth sharply because Computer Backup revenue declined 2% in Q2.

Company GrowthiHow sales, profit, earnings per share and spare cash have changed over the last few years.

Revenue was $102.0 million in 2023, $127.6 million in 2024 and $145.8 million in 2025. Growth was 25.1% in 2024 and 14.3% in 2025. The 2026 guidance midpoint is $173 million, representing approximately 18.6% growth. Net losses improved from $59.7 million in 2023 to $48.5 million in 2024 and $25.6 million in 2025. The net loss for the first half of 2026 was $11.2 million, compared with $16.4 million one year earlier. GAAP earnings per share improved from -$1.66 in 2023 to -$1.11 in 2024 and -$0.46 in 2025. Conservative free cash flow, calculated as operating cash flow minus property purchases and capitalised software, was approximately -$27.6 million in 2023, -$1.7 million in 2024 and +$11.3 million in 2025. For the first half of 2026, the same calculation was $13.8 million minus $1.5 million minus $5.2 million, producing approximately $7.2 million. B2 revenue is growing fastest. Computer Backup is growing slowest and is currently declining slightly. Cash flow and losses are improving faster than total revenue because operating efficiency has increased.

Earnings PerformanceiThe latest results, whether they beat or missed what the market expected, and what the company says comes next.

Q2 2026 revenue was $42.7 million. This exceeded the company's guidance ceiling of $40.2 million by $2.5 million, or 6.2%. GAAP loss per share was $0.08. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.08. Adjusted EBITDA was $12.8 million with a 30% margin. Q1 2026 revenue was approximately $38.7 million, calculated from first-half revenue of $81.4 million minus Q2 revenue of $42.7 million. The company exceeded its own revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance in both Q1 and Q2. I cannot confirm exact analyst consensus numbers for every quarter. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $172 million to $174 million from $161.5 million to $163.5 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance was raised to 27% to 29% from 23% to 25%.

Financial HealthiCash, debt, cash flow and profit margins, and whether the company keeps issuing new shares. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.

At June 30, 2026, cash was $32.4 million and marketable securities were $17.5 million, giving total reported liquidity of $49.9 million. Finance lease and equipment-financing obligations were approximately $46.7 million. Operating lease liabilities were approximately $35.7 million. The new offering adds $175 million of 0% convertible senior notes due in 2031. Expected net proceeds are approximately $167.2 million, with about $15.2 million intended for capped-call transactions. Pro forma cash and investments would be about $201.9 million after the capped-call cost, before other changes. Financial debt and financing obligations would be about $221.7 million. This gives approximate pro forma net debt of $19.8 million. Operating cash flow was $13.8 million in the first half of 2026. Conservative free cash flow was about $7.2 million. Q2 GAAP gross margin was 63%, unchanged from one year earlier. First-half gross margin improved to 62% from 60%. Q2 GAAP operating margin improved to -9.8% from -17.2%. Shares outstanding increased from 58.7 million at December 31, 2025 to 61.8 million at June 30, 2026. That is a 5.3% increase in six months. This dilution reduces each existing shareholder's percentage ownership. The company should be able to survive a bad year without raising new money after the note offering. Financial health remains average rather than strong because capital requirements, lease obligations and future convertible-note dilution are material.

ValuationiWhat you pay today for what the company earns, next to its rivals and its own past. Rated Cheap, Fair or Expensive.

Backblaze remains GAAP loss-making, so its trailing price-to-earnings ratio is not meaningful. A reliable forward GAAP P/E and PEG ratio cannot be confirmed. Using a market value of $960.5 million, pro forma financing obligations of $221.7 million and pro forma cash of $201.9 million gives an enterprise value near $980 million. The 2026 revenue guidance midpoint is $173 million. Enterprise value divided by revenue is therefore approximately 5.7 times. The adjusted EBITDA margin midpoint is 28%. Applying 28% to $173 million gives approximately $48.4 million of adjusted EBITDA. Enterprise value divided by this amount is approximately 20.3 times. These ratios show how much you pay today for each dollar of revenue or adjusted operating profit. Backblaze trades at a premium valuation that requires continued growth above the wider cloud-storage market. Exact comparable EV-to-EBITDA figures for NET, DOCN and DBX cannot be confirmed on the same accounting basis. BLZE looks expensive because it is still unprofitable under GAAP and trades above five times forward revenue.

ShareholdersiWho owns the company. Big funds, company insiders, and whether ownership sits with only a few holders.

Institutional filings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 showed approximately 29.0 million shares held by reporting institutions. Compared with June 30 shares outstanding, that equals roughly 47%. Large disclosed holders included BlackRock with approximately 3.68 million shares, Vanguard with 2.34 million and Pillsbury Lake Capital with 1.96 million. Using June 30 shares, those positions equal approximately 6.0%, 3.8% and 3.2%. Exact current insider ownership cannot be confirmed. Chief Executive Officer Gleb Budman held more than two million shares after reported May 2026 transactions, giving him a meaningful personal interest in the company. Ownership is not dominated by one outside institution. However, BLZE's relatively small public market value means that a large fund reducing its position can still move the stock sharply.

Insider ActivityiWhether the people running the company have been buying or selling their own shares lately.

Recent executive transactions were mainly tax-related sales and award-related transactions. On May 20, 2026, Gleb Budman disposed of 13,177 shares for tax purposes and 18,000 shares connected with an option or award transaction at approximately $7.43. Chief Financial Officer Marc Suidan disposed of 269 tax-related shares and 18,000 award-related shares on the same date. These transactions are weaker negative signals than an open-market sale because they were connected with compensation and taxes. No significant recent open-market insider purchase can be confirmed. The overall pattern is selling linked to compensation, not aggressive discretionary buying.

Dividends and BuybacksiCash paid out to shareholders, whether that payment looks safe, and whether the company is buying back its own shares.

Backblaze pays no dividend. That is normal for a growth company that is investing in infrastructure. A $10 million repurchase programme was authorised in August 2025 and ran through August 1, 2026. Treasury stock had a cost of approximately $3.4 million at June 30, 2026. The programme was designed mainly to offset employee-stock dilution. No new active repurchase authorisation can be confirmed.

Competitive PositioniWho the company competes with, how much of the market it holds, and what it has that rivals do not.

Backblaze competes with Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Cloudflare, DigitalOcean, Wasabi and other storage providers. Its main advantage is simple pricing, low storage costs, open access and reduced data-transfer charges. B2 Overdrive is designed to provide higher throughput for AI and other data-heavy workloads. The CoreWeave agreement provides evidence that the platform can serve a major AI infrastructure customer. Backblaze also reported more than 500,000 customers across 175 countries. Published market-share data that isolates Backblaze's object-storage share cannot be confirmed. The largest cloud providers still have far greater scale, broader product ranges and larger sales organisations. Backblaze's advantage is useful but not fully protected. Larger rivals could lower prices, bundle storage with computing services or copy popular features.

Future OutlookiWhat sales and profit are expected to do next, and what management has promised.

Management's confirmed 2026 revenue guidance is $172 million to $174 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 27% to 29%. The current business is becoming more dependent on B2 Cloud Storage and large contracts. B2 ARR was $113.3 million at Q2, up 39%, while Computer Backup ARR was $64.0 million and nearly flat. My view is that revenue growth can remain around 20% or better if CoreWeave deployments begin on time and Backblaze wins more AI customers. GAAP profitability may take longer because stock compensation, depreciation and infrastructure costs remain substantial. The main long-term question is whether Backblaze can convert AI demand into cash after paying for the required hardware and data-centre capacity.

Other Upcoming Company CatalystsiOther events ahead that could move the share price, such as results, launches or approvals, apart from the catalyst this report is built on.

The $175 million convertible-note offering was expected to close on August 24, 2026. Final confirmation and any exercise of the additional $26.25 million purchaser option could affect the share price. Q3 2026 earnings are expected in early November. The exact date is not confirmed. CoreWeave deployment updates could move the shares when Backblaze begins recognising material contract revenue. No exact deployment announcement date has been published. New large-customer agreements, B2 Overdrive adoption and European data-centre expansion are additional potential catalysts. Exact dates are not confirmed.

Long-Term Company RisksiWhat could weaken the business over the coming years, rather than around this one event.

Customer concentration is the largest developing risk. A contract equal to more than two years of current company revenue can create dependence on one customer's deployment plans and financial condition. Capital intensity is another major risk. Storage requires hard drives, servers, networking equipment and data-centre leases. Rapid revenue growth may require cash investment before the customer begins paying at full scale. Competition is intense. Amazon, Microsoft and Google can combine storage, computing and software in one package. Backblaze has fewer products and less financial capacity. Dilution is persistent. Outstanding shares increased 5.3% in six months, and the convertible notes could create additional shares if the stock rises above the conversion price. Computer Backup is mature and Q2 revenue declined 2%. Continued weakness would increase dependence on B2 and AI customers. The risk that worries me most over several years is the combination of customer concentration and infrastructure spending. Fast growth is less valuable if one customer controls the timing and the company must spend heavily before collecting revenue.

Traderavel VerdictiOur straight answer on the company after everything above, not on the trade. Quality, growth, price, risk and the long-term view.

Backblaze is an average-quality business with high growth potential, improving cash generation and a clear position in lower-cost cloud storage. The CoreWeave agreement improves its credibility in AI infrastructure. Financial health is average after the convertible financing. Liquidity is adequate, but financing and lease obligations have increased. Share dilution remains a concern. Growth is high because B2 Cloud Storage is expanding above 30%, while total company growth is returning toward 20%. The weaker Computer Backup business prevents a stronger overall quality rating. The valuation is expensive at approximately 5.7 times 2026 revenue and 20.3 times expected adjusted EBITDA. Investors must believe AI contracts will create several years of growth above 20%. Long-term company risk is high because the company is small, volatile, capital-intensive and increasingly exposed to large customers. My long-term outlook is positive, but execution must remain strong. BLZE suits aggressive growth investors who can tolerate large price swings, dilution and uncertain quarterly cash flow. It does not suit income investors, low-volatility investors or anyone who may need to sell during a sudden 20% decline.