JPMorgan reports third-quarter earnings after guiding to mid-to-high-teens growth in markets and investment-banking revenue

Upcoming catalystiThe event that could move the share price.

JPMorgan Chase will release third-quarter 2026 results at approximately 6:45 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday 13 October 2026. Its conference call begins at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

Main stock affectediThe company the event affects most directly.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., New York Stock Exchange ticker JPM.

Current priceiWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.

$343.06 as of 25 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC, the regular-session close.

Expected stock reactioniWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Positive. The outcome work puts a beat with net interest income guided higher at 42%, results merely meeting the raised bar at 38% and a shortfall at 20%. The upside is the likeliest single outcome and the downside is the least likely of the three. The case against it is the record and the bar together. Three of the last four earnings reactions were negative, on an average move of about 2.36%, and in each case the quality of the guidance mattered more than the headline beat. Management has already guided to mid-to-high-teens growth in markets and investment banking revenue, so a beat is expected rather than hoped for. What tips it is that this franchise has met demanding bars repeatedly, and the capital markets backdrop this quarter is the part of the guide least in doubt.

Action before the eventiWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Watch. JPMorgan is the strongest large US bank, but the stock already carries a premium valuation and management has pre-announced strong capital-markets growth. Wait for the report and use $353 to $356 as bullish confirmation or $335 as bearish confirmation.

Why the stock is affectediThe link between the event and this company.

The report updates every major earnings engine at once. Net interest income shows what JPMorgan earns on loans, securities and deposits. Markets and investment-banking fees measure capital-markets activity. Card charge-offs and provisions reveal credit quality. Expenses show how much of the revenue reaches shareholders. Guidance can therefore change both the earnings forecast and the valuation investors are willing to pay.

Catalyst confidenceiHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

The scheduled result is highly likely to occur, with 97% confidence. The company confirmed both the 6:45 a.m. release and 8:30 a.m. call. My likely outcome is an earnings beat driven by markets and investment banking, but not necessarily a positive share-price reaction because those strengths have already been guided publicly.

Stock-reaction confidenceiHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

54%. A large bank reporting into raised expectations reliably moves, and the options market prices about 2.37% either way. The direction is a lean, and the thing most likely to break it is the pattern of the last four prints: three of them fell, and in each the market took issue with guidance quality rather than with the quarter. A cautious 2027 setup would do it again.

When the market will reactiThe moment the price is likely to move, such as at the announcement or at the next market open.

The first reaction should begin in premarket trading after the 6:45 a.m. Eastern release. A second move can arrive during the 8:30 a.m. call when management discusses net interest income, expenses, credit and 2027. The cleanest read should develop from premarket through the first two regular sessions.

Effect on the businessiWhat the event changes for the company itself, such as its sales, costs or profit.

The business effect is medium. A strong quarter would reinforce JPMorgan's fee-revenue momentum and could lift the 2026 earnings base. The durable variables are the $105.5 billion full-year net-interest-income outlook, the $107.5 billion adjusted-expense outlook and credit losses. A one-quarter trading surge helps profit, but an improved rate, deposit and credit outlook supports a longer valuation change.

Market expectations and forecastiWhat investors already expect from this event, and the numbers being forecast.

Current published estimates cluster around $5.84 to $5.90 of earnings per share and $50.8 billion to $51.5 billion of revenue. The year-earlier quarter produced $5.07 of earnings per share and $46.4 billion of managed revenue. Management has already said third-quarter investment-banking fees and markets revenue should each rise by the mid-to-high teens from a year earlier, though both should decline seasonally from the record second quarter. My forecast is adjusted earnings around $5.95 to $6.15 a share and managed revenue around $51.5 billion to $52.5 billion. That is a modest beat, not a clean buy signal. Trading it requires listening for whether full-year net interest income rises above $105.5 billion, whether adjusted expenses stay near $107.5 billion and whether credit costs remain close to the second quarter's $2.5 billion.

How much is already priced iniHow much of the expected outcome the share price already reflects before the event happens.

High. Management gave unusually specific positive guidance four weeks before the report, and consensus estimates have moved higher. The stock also trades near 14.7 times trailing earnings and about 3.0 times tangible book value, premiums that assume high returns and superior execution continue. A normal beat may therefore be insufficient. The market is likely to reward a beat plus better guidance and punish strong revenue if expense or credit guidance absorbs it.

What else lands that dayiOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

Wells Fargo and Citigroup also report before the opening bell on 13 October. Their deposit costs, credit trends and loan growth can move the entire bank group before JPMorgan's call ends. No major Bureau of Labor Statistics release is scheduled that morning, and the Treasury market is open after the prior day's federal holiday. The day is crowded within financials. A JPM move confirmed by WFC and C is more likely to represent a sector message, while a move unique to JPM is more likely to reflect its own guidance. Premarket prices may change quickly as all three calls compete for attention.

Expected price move and durationiHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Options-Implied Move The nearest event-focused market snapshot implies approximately plus or minus 2.37% through the 16 October expiration. Plus or minus describes size, not direction. From $343.06, that is about $8.13, or an approximate $334.93 to $351.19 range. This expiration includes three post-report sessions and sector earnings, so it is not a pure one-day JPM estimate. Historical Event Analysis Second-quarter 2026 results on 14 July produced a 2.50% close-to-close gain. Adjusted earnings of $6.14 beat expectations and management raised net-interest-income guidance. First-quarter 2026 results on 14 April produced a 0.82% close-to-close loss. Earnings beat, but management reduced its total net-interest-income outlook and highlighted macro risks. Fourth-quarter 2025 results on 13 January 2026 produced a 4.19% close-to-close loss. Reported earnings included a $2.2 billion Apple Card reserve, adjusted earnings were stronger, and the market focused on investment-banking weakness and conservative guidance. Third-quarter 2025 results on 14 October produced a 1.91% close-to-close loss. Earnings beat, but credit costs were $3.4 billion, including an $810 million reserve build, and management remained cautious. Historical Average Move The four reactions went both ways, so the useful figure is their average absolute move: 2.50% plus 0.82% plus 4.19% plus 1.91%, divided by four, equals plus or minus 2.36%. Only one of the four reactions was positive, showing that a headline beat does not guarantee a gain. Our Expected Move My estimate is +3% to +5% if JPMorgan beats and raises guidance with benign credit, and -4% to -7% if credit, expenses or forward guidance disappoint. A result close to expectations should trade between -2% and +2%. The upside case is modestly above the options figure because a guidance raise can persist beyond expiration. The downside is larger because the valuation and pre-announced capital-markets strength leave less room for disappointment. Impact Strength Medium. Earnings can move a company worth about $912 billion and set the tone for the banking sector, but JPMorgan's diversified earnings and strong capital position reduce the chance that one ordinary quarter changes the long-term story. Estimated Duration One to three trading days. A change to the net-interest-income, expense or credit outlook can last longer, while a move caused only by trading revenue is more likely to fade as other banks report.

Result needed for a big moveiWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.

A gain above 5% likely requires adjusted earnings above roughly $6.15, managed revenue above roughly $52.5 billion, credit costs no worse than the second quarter and a higher net-interest-income outlook without a similar increase in expenses. A large decline would require a material miss, credit costs moving above roughly $3 billion, a higher expense guide or a weaker 2027 rate and deposit outlook. These thresholds are my estimates, not company guidance.

Possible outcomesiThe main ways the event could turn out, with the expected stock reaction for each one.

Positive outcome, 42% probability. Earnings and revenue beat, both capital-markets businesses exceed the mid-to-high-teens guide, credit stays controlled and net-interest-income guidance rises. Expected reaction: up 3% to 5%. Middle outcome, 38% probability. Results meet the raised bar, net interest income and expenses remain near guidance, and credit is mixed but manageable. Expected reaction: down 2% to up 2%. Negative outcome, 20% probability. Revenue falls short of the raised bar, provisions or expenses rise, or management weakens the forward outlook. Expected reaction: down 4% to 7%.

Other affected stocksiOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.

Wells Fargo and Citigroup report the same morning and will trade mainly on their own results, but JPMorgan's commentary can reinforce sector moves. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley can react to its trading and investment-banking read-through. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, ticker XLF, provides the broadest listed sector exposure.

What the market may be missingiSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.

The second quarter's reported $7.70 of earnings per share included significant Visa and equity gains. The cleaner figure was $6.14. Third-quarter comparisons that anchor on $7.70 risk setting an unrealistic bar, while comparisons that ignore those gains can better isolate the operating business. The other overlooked point is that high rates are no longer a simple positive, and the path under them moved on 2 October. A steeper curve can help asset yields, but expensive funding, slower borrowers and rising card losses can offset that benefit. September payrolls came in at 29,000 against about 84,000 expected, with the unemployment rate up to 4.2% and the two previous months revised down by 60,000, and the market went from pricing a Federal Reserve rise on 28 October at about 70% to pricing a hold at 77%. For a bank that is two things at once: a net interest income outlook built on a higher path for longer, and a credit book whose borrowers are the people in that payrolls number. The report needs to show the mix, not merely a high net-interest-income number, and the guidance it gives for 2027 is now being set against a rate path that changed eleven days before it.

Main risksiWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.

Overall event risk is Medium. The largest risks are a credit-cost surprise, an expense increase, deposit pressure, weaker investment-banking fees than management indicated and a broad bank move caused by WFC or C. The credit risk has a new piece of evidence behind it: 29,000 jobs in September, unemployment at 4.2% and 60,000 jobs revised away from July and August, which is the labour market the card book lends into. The same print took a Federal Reserve rise on 28 October to 17% priced from about 70%, which takes the easy half out of the net interest income story. Geopolitical volatility can help trading revenue while simultaneously hurting borrowers and valuation, so it does not point in only one direction.

Other factorsiAnything else worth knowing that the sections above do not cover.

The Federal Reserve lowered its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September. The shape of the yield curve and management's deposit-beta assumptions now matter more than the direction of one policy move. Investors should also separate JPMorgan's own result from the sector reaction and wait through the 8:30 a.m. call before treating the first premarket print as final.

Trend over 6 to 12 monthsiWhich way the share price has been heading over the past year, and how far it has travelled.

The long trend is still rising but momentum has cooled. JPM gained 17.62% over six months and 9.46% over twelve months through 25 September. The 52-week closing range is $279.10 in March to $366.50 in August. The current close is 6.40% below the high and 22.92% above the low.

Recent price actioniWhat the shares have done over the last few weeks and sessions, and on what kind of volume.

JPM lost 3.77% over the latest month. It closed at $352.04 on 21 September, fell to $340.00 on 22 September as banks weakened with the yield curve, reached a $335.28 intraday low on 24 September and recovered to $343.06 on 25 September. Recent volume is moderately above its 50-day average. Price sits about 73% of the way from the 52-week low to the high.

Market structureiThe shape of the chart. Rising highs and rising lows mean an uptrend, falling ones mean a downtrend, and neither means the price is stuck in a range.

The long-term structure has higher lows above the March trough, but the short-term chart has lower highs since the August peak. That combination is a correction inside a larger uptrend, not a clean trend in either direction. A simple picture is buyers defending the mid-$330s while sellers have repeatedly appeared from $350 to $356.

Support and resistance zonesiPrice areas where buyers have stepped in before, and price areas where sellers have. They often slow the price down when it gets there again.

First support is $335 to $340, tested across the four sessions from 22 through 25 September. A close below $335 would break the recent floor and expose the 200-day average near $321. First resistance is $350 to $356, an area crossed or tested repeatedly in September and containing the 50-day average. A close above $356 on strong volume would repair the short-term structure. The next resistance is the $366.50 August high.

50-day and 200-day moving averagesiThe average closing price over the last 50 days and the last 200 days. Where the price sits against them shows whether the recent trend is strong or fading.

A moving average is the average closing price over the named number of sessions and helps separate the trend from daily noise. The 50-day average is $353.34 and has flattened after rising. Price is 2.91% below it. The 200-day average is $321.26 and is rising. Price is 6.79% above it. The 50-day remains $32.08 above the 200-day, a bullish long-term arrangement, though the recent loss of the 50-day shows weaker short-term momentum.

Relative strengthiHow this stock has performed against the wider market and against its own sector over the same period.

JPM gained 9.46% over twelve months against 16.68% for the S&P 500 tracking fund, a lag of 7.22 percentage points. It gained 17.62% over six months against 19.57% for the fund, a lag of 1.95 points. Against the Financial Select Sector fund, JPM led by 7.17 points over twelve months and 5.82 points over six months. In the latest month JPM lost 3.77%, trailing the S&P 500 by 4.46 points but beating XLF by 2.10 points. It remains the stronger bank-sector name even while lagging the broad market.

Volume trendiHow many shares are changing hands lately compared with normal. Heavy volume behind a move means more traders agree with it.

Average volume over 20 sessions is 7.71 million shares against 6.95 million over 50 sessions, about 10.88% higher. Higher participation during the pullback confirms that investors have been actively repositioning, but the increase is not extreme enough to signal capitulation.

VolatilityiHow much the share price swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.

The 14-day average true range is $7.15, or 2.09% of the price. The average intraday range over 20 sessions is $6.60, or 1.92%. Annualised realised volatility is 19.39% over 14 sessions against 17.86% over 50, so the stock is slightly wilder than normal. Position size should allow for a routine $7 daily range, and a stop tighter than normal noise can be triggered without changing the thesis.

Long-Term Technical ViewiThe wider chart over years. The big trend, the major price levels and how much the stock swings.

The multi-year trend remains positive and the rising 200-day average near $321 is the main long-term support. The August high at $366.50 is the major resistance. JPM is less volatile than many individual stocks, but earnings and rate shocks can still produce 4% moves in a day.

Technical biasiWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.

Neutral. Price is above a rising 200-day average and the 50-day remains above it, but price is below the 50-day and has formed lower highs since August. That neutral chart agrees with the mixed catalyst call. The earnings outcome should determine which side resolves first.

What would invalidate this biasiThe price level or chart change that would prove the technical read wrong.

A daily close above $356 on above-average volume would turn the bias Bullish and target $366.50. A close below $335 would turn it Bearish and make the rising 200-day average near $321 the next important test.

Technical data timestampiWhen the chart figures above were taken. Markets keep moving, so check live charts before you trade.

Every price, average, return, range and volume figure in this group is computed from daily bars through the regular US session that ended at 20:00 UTC on 25 September 2026. Markets move after this is written. Check a live chart before trading.

Stock OverviewiThe basic numbers. Price, size of the company, sector, the past year of highs and lows, trading volume and the next earnings date.

JPM closed at $343.06 at 20:00 UTC on 25 September 2026. Using 2.658 billion shares outstanding at 30 June gives an approximate market value of $912 billion. It is a diversified financial-services company in banking, investment banking, payments and asset management. The 52-week range is $279.10 to $366.50 and average 20-day volume is 7.71 million shares. The next confirmed earnings release is 13 October 2026.

What the company doesiThe business in plain words. What it sells, who buys it, and how the money reaches the company.

JPMorgan takes deposits, makes consumer and business loans, issues credit cards, moves payments, trades securities, advises companies on deals and raises capital. It also manages investments and private-bank assets. Money arrives as net interest income from the spread between earning assets and funding, and as fees from payments, markets, banking and asset management. For an everyday example, a Chase customer can hold a deposit, use a credit card and take a mortgage while the same company helps a corporation issue bonds.

Revenue BreakdowniWhere the money comes from, split by product, by part of the business and by country.

Second-quarter 2026 managed revenue was $58.0 billion. Consumer and Community Banking supplied $20.3 billion, or 34.9%. Commercial and Investment Bank supplied $24.9 billion, or 42.8%. Asset and Wealth Management supplied $6.9 billion, or 11.8%. Corporate supplied $6.0 billion, or 10.4%. The investment bank was the largest segment that quarter, helped by $12.1 billion of markets revenue and $3.3 billion of investment-banking fees. The quarterly release does not give a comparable geographic percentage split. JPMorgan is global, but US consumers and businesses remain central to loans and deposits.

Company GrowthiHow sales, profit, earnings per share and spare cash have changed over the last few years.

Total net revenue rose from $128.7 billion in 2022 to $158.1 billion in 2023, $177.6 billion in 2024 and $182.4 billion in 2025. Net income was $37.7 billion, $49.6 billion, $58.5 billion and $57.0 billion across those years. Diluted earnings per share rose from $12.09 to $16.23, $19.75 and $20.02. From 2022 through 2025, revenue grew about 12.4% a year and earnings per share about 18.3% a year, though growth slowed sharply in 2025. Free cash flow is not a useful bank growth measure because deposits and loans are operating assets and liabilities. Capital generation, earnings per share and tangible book value are more informative. Tangible book value per share reached $113.35 at June 2026, up 10% from a year earlier. Current company growth is Medium because fee revenue and loans are expanding while the rate-driven net-interest-income surge is maturing.

Earnings PerformanceiThe latest results, whether they beat or missed what the market expected, and what the company says comes next.

Second-quarter managed revenue was $58.0 billion and adjusted earnings were $6.14 a share, both above roughly $50.7 billion and $5.59 estimates. First-quarter revenue was $50.5 billion and earnings were $5.94, also above consensus around $48.3 billion and $5.50. Fourth-quarter 2025 reported earnings were $4.63, below the $4.85 consensus because of the Apple Card reserve, while adjusted earnings were $5.23. Third-quarter 2025 earnings of $5.07 beat roughly $4.85. Management last guided to about $105.5 billion of 2026 net interest income, $96.5 billion excluding Markets and $107.5 billion of adjusted expenses. The net-interest-income and expense outlooks were raised with the second-quarter report. That history supports another operating beat, but it also raises the hurdle.

Financial HealthiCash, debt, cash flow and profit margins, and whether the company keeps issuing new shares. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.

At 30 June, JPMorgan had $1.5 trillion of cash and marketable securities, $1.5 trillion of average loans and a 14.1% standardized common-equity Tier 1 ratio. Total loss-absorbing capacity was $590 billion. The second quarter generated $16.9 billion of net income excluding significant items and absorbed $2.5 billion of credit costs. Debt and cash are not interpreted like an industrial company's because borrowings, deposits and securities are core banking inputs. Traditional gross margin, operating margin, operating cash flow and free cash flow are likewise poor comparison tools. The 47% managed overhead ratio and 23% return on tangible common equity excluding significant items show strong profitability. Average diluted shares fell roughly 3% from a year earlier, so buybacks are increasing each remaining owner's share. The liquidity and capital base should withstand a bad year without an equity raise under ordinary stress.

ValuationiWhat you pay today for what the company earns, next to its rivals and its own past. Rated Cheap, Fair or Expensive.

The price is about 14.7 times trailing earnings of roughly $23.34 a share and about 13.7 times the published 2027 earnings estimate near $25.04. It is 3.03 times tangible book value of $113.35 and 2.58 times book value of $133.01. These figures show how much investors pay for each dollar of earnings or book capital. PEG and enterprise value to EBITDA are not reliable primary bank measures because bank debt is operating funding and EBITDA ignores credit costs. JPMorgan's tangible-book multiple is materially above other large US banks, reflecting its higher returns, scale and execution record. The valuation is Expensive rather than unreasonable. It requires JPMorgan to keep earning premium returns.

ShareholdersiWho owns the company. Big funds, company insiders, and whether ownership sits with only a few holders.

The 2026 proxy lists Vanguard as owning 9.86% and BlackRock as owning 7.15% at the end of 2025. Directors, nominees and executive officers beneficially owned 8.57 million common shares at 28 February 2026, less than 1% of shares outstanding. Ownership is broad rather than controlled by an insider, but large index managers can affect flows around rebalancing rather than through active company views.

Insider ActivityiWhether the people running the company have been buying or selling their own shares lately.

The latest filing showed human-resources head Robin Leopold selling 2,500 shares at an average $352.81 on 10 September, leaving 71,047 directly held shares. The filing marks it as a planned transaction under a Rule 10b5-1 arrangement, so it is weaker evidence than an unscheduled open-market sale. Other 2026 filings are dominated by awards, vesting, tax withholding and gifts. I found no recent material open-market insider purchase that changes the investment case.

Dividends and BuybacksiCash paid out to shareholders, whether that payment looks safe, and whether the company is buying back its own shares.

JPMorgan raised the quarterly common dividend from $1.50 to $1.65, an annual rate of $6.60 and a 1.92% yield at the current price. The dividend has been paid for decades, though regulators forced a cut during the financial crisis. The annual rate is about 28% of trailing earnings and appears well covered. A new $50 billion repurchase authorization took effect on 1 July 2026. In the second quarter the company returned about $6.2 billion through net repurchases and $4.0 billion through common dividends.

Competitive PositioniWho the company competes with, how much of the market it holds, and what it has that rivals do not.

JPMorgan combines the largest US banking balance sheet with leading consumer deposits, cards, wholesale payments, investment banking and asset management. It reported a 9.3% global investment-banking fee wallet share and $5.1 trillion of assets under management in the second quarter. Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo compete in banking, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley compete more directly in markets and advisory. Scale, data, a low-cost deposit franchise and cross-selling are durable advantages. Regulation, technology failures, aggressive deposit pricing or a sustained loss of senior talent could erode them.

Future OutlookiWhat sales and profit are expected to do next, and what management has promised.

Management's current facts are about $105.5 billion of 2026 net interest income, $107.5 billion of adjusted expenses and a roughly 3.2% Card Services net charge-off rate. Analysts expect 2027 earnings around $25.04 a share, about 3% above the current 2026 estimate. My outlook is Positive but slower. Loans, deposits, payments and capital-markets activity can grow, while falling rates and already-high margins make another step-change in net interest income less likely.

Other Upcoming Company CatalystsiOther events ahead that could move the share price, such as results, launches or approvals, apart from the catalyst this report is built on.

The Federal Reserve decision on 28 October can change the rate and curve assumptions behind bank earnings. The Apple Card portfolio transition creates integration and credit-performance updates through 2027. JPMorgan's fourth-quarter 2026 earnings call is confirmed for 14 January 2027. Capital returns can also change after the next Federal Reserve stress-test cycle, whose exact 2027 result date is not yet published.

Long-Term Company RisksiWhat could weaken the business over the coming years, rather than around this one event.

Credit is the central multi-year risk because JPMorgan holds consumer, card, commercial and market exposures through every cycle. A recession can raise charge-offs while reducing loan demand and fee activity. Falling or flattening rates can compress spreads, while persistently high rates can weaken borrowers. Regulation can require more capital and reduce returns. Cybersecurity, operational resilience and conduct failures carry unusually large costs at this scale. Jamie Dimon's eventual succession is a key-person risk because the premium valuation partly reflects confidence in management.

Traderavel VerdictiOur straight answer on the company after everything above, not on the trade. Quality, growth, price, risk and the long-term view.

JPMorgan is a strong-quality business with medium growth, strong financial health, an expensive valuation and medium long-term company risk. Its diversified franchise, capital, technology spending and market leadership support a Positive outlook, but the current price already pays for superior execution. It suits long-term financial-sector investors who can tolerate rate and credit cycles and value quality over a low multiple. It does not suit investors seeking a cheap bank, a high dividend yield or insulation from economic downturns.