ON result

After the event it went to −1.57% at its highest, and later to −10.11% at its lowest, against the close price before analyst day.

The news wasMixed

On one side the 2030 model sits well above what the company is running at now: 12% to 14% annual revenue growth to nearly $11 billion, a 53% gross margin against about 40% this year, more than $3.5 billion of free cash flow and AI data-center revenue growing at least 50% a year to more than $2.5 billion. On the other, the addressable market was cut by $30 billion to $213 billion because Synaptics is excluded, that deal is not expected to close until mid-2027, and 53% is the same gross margin target set in 2023 and missed every year since.

Measured fromChart

onsemi used its analyst day to publish a 2030 financial model: 12% to 14% annual revenue growth to nearly $11 billion of revenue, a 53% gross margin, a 38% operating margin and more than $3.5 billion of free cash flow, with AI data-center revenue growing from about $500 million this year to more than $2.5 billion. It also cut the market it says it addresses to $213 billion from the $243 billion it gave in June, because Synaptics is excluded until that deal closes in mid-2027, and the shares fell.

What else moved the price

The card called the day crowded and named the Federal Reserve, which was right about the clash and wrong about who won it. The decision landed at 18:00 UTC, the same minute the presentation began, and the stock held its price for the next half hour before breaking two minutes after the 2030 targets were published at 18:30. The semiconductor ETF SMH closed 0.64% higher on the day, so the afternoon belonged to management rather than to the Fed. Quarterly index expiry on 18 September, which the card also flagged, falls outside the window measured here.

What we said	What happened	Result
The onsemi Financial Analyst Day is confirmed for 16 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC, with 99% confidence that it happens as scheduled and 82% catalyst confidence in a constructive recovery framework built on AI power products, margin improvement and the Synaptics combination.	The analyst day was held in New York on 16 September 2026 and the long-term financial model was published at 18:30 UTC, half an hour after the scheduled start. Two of the three subjects arrived. AI power and margins were the substance of it, and Synaptics was left out on purpose because the two companies must be presented separately until the deal closes in mid-2027.	Partly correct
Positive. The stock can recover if management gives credible growth, margin and Synaptics acquisition targets.	The stock fell 9.02% on the session, from the $73.20 close before the event to $66.60. After the model was published it never traded back above that pre-event close.	Incorrect
Stock-reaction confidence 61%, held back because the chart is weak and the options market expects a large move.	The reaction went the other way, and the caution was the part that paid. The options market was also the better guide to size: its plus or minus 10.4% was far closer to the outcome than the +5% to +9% the card gave.	Partly correct
The first reaction can begin during the presentation from 18:00 UTC, with cleaner price discovery in the final two hours of that session and over the next one to three trading days.	The shape of the day was right. The stock was still at $71.89 in the 18:30 minute, the selling began at 18:32 UTC and it traded down to $65.80 by 19:12 UTC, so the whole move happened inside the final two hours, on the release of the model at 18:30 UTC rather than at the 18:00 UTC start.	Correct
Management presents a recovery model with mid-to-high single-digit organic revenue growth over the next cycle.	The model is 12% to 14% annual revenue growth from 2026 to 2030, reaching nearly $11 billion of revenue in 2030. That is well above the range the card expected.	Underestimated
Measurable Synaptics cost benefits.	None were given. The addressable market was cut to $213 billion from the $243 billion quoted in June, because that June figure included Synaptics and the two companies must run independently during the antitrust review. Closing is now expected in mid-2027.	Incorrect
A credible path toward gross margin above 45% would support the bullish trade. A return to the old 53% target without clear milestones would lack credibility.	Management went back to the 53% non-GAAP gross margin target, now for 2030, against about 40% in 2026, alongside a 38% operating margin and more than $3.5 billion of free cash flow. Milestones were attached, about 6.5 points from factory utilisation and about 2.25 points from manufacturing changes. The market treated the remainder as unproven and sold the stock anyway.	Partly correct
How much is already priced in: medium. A credible reset is not fully reflected in the price.	It was not priced in, and the repricing went the other way. The session traded 18.82 million shares against the 7.65 million 20-day average the card measured, which is a market changing its mind rather than one that had already made it up.	Correct
Our expected move: +5% to +9%, lasting 1 to 3 trading days.	The move was 9.02% down on the day. The highest price struck after the model was published was $72.05, below the $73.20 pre-event close, so the rise the range describes never started.	Incorrect
Historical average move of +3.7%, based on the 2023 analyst day alone, with the warning that one event is too small for strong statistical confidence.	The 2023 analyst day gained about 3.7% over its week and the 2026 one fell 9.02% in a single session. The warning about the sample was the useful half of that section.	Correct
A big move needs measurable Synaptics synergies, a clear path to gross margin above 45%, AI data-center growth above the wider company rate and evidence that automotive and industrial orders have passed their trough. A move above 10% would probably require several of these at once.	Two of the four arrived. AI data-center revenue is targeted to grow from about $500 million in 2026 to more than $2.5 billion in 2030, at least 50% a year against 12% to 14% for the company, and the margin path was given. There were no Synaptics synergies, and no move above 10% followed in either direction.	Partly correct
Negative scenario: long-term targets are reduced, automotive recovery is delayed or the acquisition appears dilutive for longer than expected, for a reaction of -8% to -15%.	This is the scenario that occurred, through the third condition. Synaptics became a longer wait, with the addressable market cut by $30 billion in its absence and closing pushed to mid-2027, and the reaction of 9.02% down sits inside the range.	Correct scenario
SYNA can move on the Synaptics timeline. NXPI, STM and MCHP may move as automotive and industrial read-throughs, AEHR on silicon-carbide plans and NVDA on AI data-center power demand.	SYNA fell 8.30%, the largest move of the group and the one the card put first. NXPI fell 3.26% and MCHP fell 2.66%. The other three went the other way: STM rose 0.29%, AEHR rose 3.27% and NVDA rose 0.82%.	Partly correct
What the market may be missing: AI power products can change the revenue mix faster than total company revenue suggests. The overlooked risk is that management uses the investor day to formally replace the ambitious 2023 financial model with lower targets.	The mix point was right, and management made the same argument with its own numbers: AI data-center revenue growing at least 50% a year against 12% to 14% for the company. The named risk did not happen as described. The 53% gross margin target was kept rather than lowered, and what was cut was the addressable market.	Partly correct
Do not read the share price between 18:00 and 20:00 UTC as a response to anything management says. It is a response to the Federal Reserve, and a semiconductor stock is a high-beta way to trade a rate decision.	It was management. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% at 18:00 UTC and the stock barely moved in the half hour that followed, going from $72.53 to $71.89 by the 18:30 minute. It broke at 18:32 UTC, two minutes after the model was published, on volume that went from about 9,000 shares a minute to 116,000, and closed 9.02% lower while the semiconductor ETF SMH closed 0.64% higher on the same session.	Incorrect
Main risks are weak long-term targets, delayed automotive recovery, Synaptics integration costs and another semiconductor-sector selloff. Catalyst-trade risk is high because the 14-day average true range is $3.56, or 4.90% of the share price.	The risk that showed up was the Synaptics one, as a longer wait rather than as integration cost. The sector did not sell off, since SMH closed higher. The stock closed $6.60 lower on the day, about 1.9 times the average true range the card measured.	Partly correct
Technical bias bearish, which conflicts with the positive catalyst call. A close below $70.90 would strengthen the bearish view and shift the next support target toward $65.	The chart won the argument with the catalyst. The stock closed at $66.60, below the $70.90 line, and the low of the session was $65.80, within $0.80 of the $65 target the card named.	Correct

Price Table	Price (USD)	Change from signal	Change from lowest (regular session)	Change from close before analyst day
After signal
Price at analysis (Regular session)Tue 01 Sept 2026, 20:00, close	72.65	—	+5.61%
Sat 5, Sun 6, Mon 7 - no trading
Lowest price (Regular session)10 Sept 2026, 13:34	68.79	−5.31%	—
Highest price (Regular session)11 Sept 2026, 19:59	76.19	+4.87%	+10.76%
Lowest price (Pre-market)10 Sept 2026, 13:17	68.70	−5.44%	−0.13%
Highest price (After-hours)11 Sept 2026, 21:26	76.35	+5.09%	+10.99%
Sat 12, Sun 13 - no trading
Close price before analyst dayTue 15 Sept 2026, 20:00, close	73.20	+0.76%	+6.41%
After analyst day (16 Sep 2026, 18:30 UTC)
Price after analyst day (Regular session)16 Sept 2026, 18:30	71.79	−1.18%	+4.36%	−1.93%
Lowest price (Regular session)16 Sept 2026, 19:12	65.80	−9.43%	−4.35%	−10.11%
Highest price (Regular session)16 Sept 2026, 18:30	72.05	−0.83%	+4.74%	−1.57%
Close price after analyst dayWed 16 Sept 2026, 20:00, close	66.60	−8.33%	−3.18%	−9.02%
Current price (Regular session)17 Sept 2026, 18:43	68.69	−5.45%	−0.15%	−6.16%

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

ONonsemi

Positive

onsemi Investor Day could reset AI growth, margin and Synaptics targets

Event passedWed, 16 Sept 2026, 18:00

Investor Days

StockThe company this write-up is about, with its ticker symbol.: ON, onsemi
PriceWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and the exact minute that price was struck.: $72.65, 20:00 1/September/2026
Event Date And TimeWhen the event is expected. Shown in your own time zone, or in UTC if you switch the clock at the top of the page. If the exact hour is not confirmed, you only see the date.: 18:00 16/September/2026
What else lands that dayOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.: CrowdedThe investor day starts at the exact minute of the Fed decision and dot plot, so the afternoon move is the Fed, not anything management says.
Expected Stock ReactionWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.: Positive
Technical biasWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.: Bearish
ActionWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.: Watch
Catalyst confidenceHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.: 82/100
Stock-reaction confidenceHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.: 61/100

Expected price move and durationHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Options-implied moveHow big a move options traders are paying for right now. This is the market's own estimate, not ours.: ±10.4%
Historical average moveHow much this stock moved on average after similar events in the past.: +3.7%
Our expected moveOur own estimate of the move, after weighing the market's estimate, the past moves and the situation now.: +5% to +9%
ImpactHow big we think that move is for this stock. Rated Low, Medium or High.: High
Estimated durationHow long the move is likely to last, such as intraday, a few trading days, or several weeks.: 1-3 trading days

Priced-in levelHow much of this news the share price already reflects. Rated Low, Medium or High. The higher it is, the less room the price has left to move.: Medium
Risk levelHow much can go wrong with this idea if the event surprises. Rated Low, Medium or High.: High
Other affected StocksOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.: SYNA , NXPI , STM , MCHP , AEHR , NVDA

Company overviewHow good the company itself is, setting this event aside. Useful if you plan to hold the shares rather than trade the news.

Company qualityHow solid the business is overall. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.: Strong
GrowthHow fast the company is growing its sales and profit. Rated Low, Medium or High.: Medium
Financial healthCash, debt, cash flow and profit margins, and whether the company keeps issuing new shares. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.: Strong
ValuationWhat you pay today for what the company earns, next to its rivals and its own past. Rated Cheap, Fair or Expensive.: Fair
RiskHow much could go wrong with the business over years. Rated Low, Medium or High. This is not Risk level above, which is about this one event.: Medium
Overall outlookOur long-term view of the company. Positive, Neutral or Negative. This is not Expected Stock Reaction, which covers one event.: Positive
Best suited forThe kind of investor this stock fits, such as someone holding for years or someone who wants income.: Patient growth investors comfortable with semiconductor cycles

When the market will reactThe moment the price is likely to move, such as at the announcement or at the next market open.

The first reaction can begin during the presentation from 18:00 UTC on 16 September 2026. The cleaner price discovery should occur in the final two hours of that session and during the next one to three trading days.

Effect on the businessWhat the event changes for the company itself, such as its sales, costs or profit.

A stronger framework could increase expected revenue growth, gross margin and free cash flow. The most important drivers are AI data-center power content, recovery in automotive and industrial demand, Treo adoption, GaNEXUS products and Synaptics integration. Higher utilization would also spread factory costs across more units and support margins.

Market expectations and forecastWhat investors already expect from this event, and the numbers being forecast.

The market already knows that Q2 2026 revenue rose 9% year over year to $1.604 billion and that AI data-center revenue is expected to more than double during 2026. Q3 guidance is $1.65 billion to $1.75 billion of revenue, 40% to 42% non-GAAP gross margin and $0.81 to $0.93 of non-GAAP EPS. My forecast is that management presents a recovery model with mid-to-high single-digit organic revenue growth over the next cycle, rising margins and measurable Synaptics cost benefits. A credible path toward gross margin above 45% would support the bullish trade. A return to the old 53% target without clear milestones would lack credibility.

How much is already priced inHow much of the expected outcome the share price already reflects before the event happens.

Medium. Investors already know about stronger Q2 demand, expanding AI exposure, the NVIDIA MGX relationship and the Synaptics transaction. However, ON is 46.2% below its June 2026 high. That decline suggests the market is discounting execution problems, acquisition risk and a slower automotive recovery. A credible reset is therefore not fully reflected in the price.

Expected price move and durationHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Options-Implied Move The 18 September 2026 options price a ±10.4% move. The ± sign describes size, not direction. This expiration includes the Investor Day but also captures broad semiconductor and market volatility. Historical Event Analysis 16 May 2023 Financial Analyst Day: Management targeted 10% to 12% revenue CAGR through 2027 and a 53% gross margin. ON rose from the $81.34 weekly close before the event to $84.36 at the end of the event week, a gain of about 3.7%. The reaction window was one week. This is the only recent directly comparable event I could verify, so the sample is limited and includes normal market movement. Historical Average Move +3.7%, based on one directly comparable event. Calculation: ($84.36 divided by $81.34 minus 1) multiplied by 100 equals approximately 3.7%. One event is too small for strong statistical confidence. Our Expected Move +5% to +9%. This is above the limited historical result but below the full ±10.4% options range. The stock has fallen sharply from its June high, leaving room for a recovery if management supplies credible targets. The upside should remain below the full options range unless management materially exceeds expectations. Impact Strength High. The event can reset multi-year revenue, margin, capital-allocation and acquisition assumptions. Estimated Duration 1-3 trading days for the first move. A strong framework could create a several-week repricing. A presentation with few new numbers would probably produce only a temporary reaction.

Result needed for a big moveWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.

Management needs to give measurable Synaptics synergies, a clear path to gross margin above 45%, continued AI data-center growth above the wider company rate and evidence that automotive and industrial orders have passed their trough. A move above 10% would probably require several of these at once.

Possible outcomesThe main ways the event could turn out, with the expected stock reaction for each one.

Positive scenario: Management gives credible medium-term growth, margin and free-cash-flow targets, with clear Synaptics benefits. Expected reaction is +7% to +12%. Neutral scenario: Management repeats Q2 commentary but provides few new numbers. Expected reaction is -2% to +3%. Negative scenario: Long-term targets are reduced, automotive recovery is delayed or the acquisition appears dilutive for longer than expected. Expected reaction is -8% to -15%.

Other affected stocksOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.

SYNA can move if ON changes the expected closing timeline, consideration, synergies or strategic value of the Synaptics acquisition. NXPI, STM and MCHP may move as read-throughs on automotive and industrial chip demand. AEHR can react to changes in ON's silicon-carbide expansion plans. NVDA may receive a small read-through from ON's AI data-center power demand.

What the market may be missingSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.

AI power products can change ON's revenue mix faster than total company revenue suggests. Power demand rises as AI racks become denser, and ON supplies several points in the power-conversion chain. If this mix carries better margins than the products ON is exiting, earnings can recover faster than revenue. The overlooked risk is that management may use Investor Day to formally replace the ambitious 2023 financial model with lower targets.

What else lands that dayOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

The onsemi investor day begins at 18:00 UTC on 16 September 2026, which is the exact minute the Federal Open Market Committee publishes its decision and its summary of economic projections. There is no worse minute in the month to start a presentation. The chair's press conference follows about half an hour later, so the first hour of the investor day runs against the two events that set the direction of the entire market that afternoon. The morning had already carried advance retail sales, the business leaders survey and import and export prices at 12:30 UTC, with business inventories at 14:00 UTC. Net effect: the content of this investor day, including any reset of AI growth, margin and Synaptics targets, will be published into a market that is reading a dot plot. What to expect on the day. Do not read the share price between 18:00 and 20:00 UTC as a response to anything management says. It is a response to the Federal Reserve, and a semiconductor stock is a high-beta way to trade a rate decision. The read on the investor day is the session on 17 September, once the material has been digested and the Fed move is a day old. Note also that 18 September is quarterly index expiry, so a position held to the end of that week is marked on a mechanically distorted close.

Main risksWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.

The largest risks are weak long-term targets, delayed automotive recovery, lower electric-vehicle demand, Synaptics integration costs, customer inventory corrections, China restrictions and another semiconductor-sector selloff. The overall catalyst-trade risk is High because ON's 14-day average true range is $3.56, or 4.90% of the share price, before the event.

Other factorsAnything else worth knowing that the sections above do not cover.

Oil and bond yields rose sharply on 1 September 2026. ON is sensitive to both semiconductor risk appetite and automotive expectations. A broad market selloff could overwhelm a constructive presentation. Use smaller size than you would use for a normal swing trade.

Trend over 6 to 12 monthsWhich way the share price has been heading over the past year, and how far it has travelled.

ON is up 9.28% over six months and 46.50% over 52 weeks, but those gains hide a severe reversal. The six-month closing high was $134.92 on 3 June 2026. The six-month low was $54.99 on 9 March 2026. The 52-week low was $44.56 on 21 November 2025.

Recent price actionWhat the shares have done over the last few weeks and sessions, and on what kind of volume.

ON fell 10.98% during August 2026 and 39.92% over the three months ending 1 September 2026. It rose 2.04% on 31 August, then fell 1.94% on 1 September to $72.65. Volume on 1 September was 7.70 million shares, almost equal to the recent 7.72 million average. On 4 August, the stock opened near $84.39 after the Q2 beat, about 5% above the prior $80.40 close, but faded to $80.78. The current price is 31.3% of the way from the $44.56 low to the $134.92 high, placing it in the lower third of its 52-week range.

Market structureThe shape of the chart. Rising highs and rising lows mean an uptrend, falling ones mean a downtrend, and neither means the price is stuck in a range.

The structure has been bearish since June, with lower highs and lower lows after the $134.92 peak. The immediate chart is trying to form a $71 to $85.50 range. In simple terms, buyers keep appearing around $71 to $72, while rallies have repeatedly failed between $80 and $85.50.

Support and resistance zonesPrice areas where buyers have stepped in before, and price areas where sellers have. They often slow the price down when it gets there again.

First support is $70.90 to $72.10. It was tested on 24 August, 25 August, 28 August and 1 September. A close below $70.90 would signal another breakdown and expose $65, followed by $55. First resistance is $74.80 to $76.70. It was tested at least five times between 20 August and 31 August. A close above $76.70 would improve short-term momentum. Major resistance is $80 to $85.50. This area was tested repeatedly during the first three weeks of August. A high-volume close above $85.50 would end the immediate pattern of lower highs.

50-day and 200-day moving averagesThe average closing price over the last 50 days and the last 200 days. Where the price sits against them shows whether the recent trend is strong or fading.

A moving average is the average closing price over a set number of trading days. The 50-day average is $86.15 and the 200-day average is $77.95. ON is below both. The 50-day remains above the 200-day, but recent price action is bearish and the 50-day is falling. I cannot confirm the current slope of the 200-day average or the exact date of the last crossover. The arrangement normally remains constructive until the 50-day crosses below the 200-day, but price below both averages warns that the trend is deteriorating.

Relative strengthHow this stock has performed against the wider market and against its own sector over the same period.

Over six months, ON gained 9.28%, versus 34.17% for the semiconductor-sector ETF SMH. ON lagged its sector by 24.89 percentage points. Over 52 weeks, ON gained 46.50%, versus 87.82% for SMH and about 18.98% for the S&P 500. ON beat the S&P 500 by about 27.52 points but lagged semiconductors by 41.32 points. During the latest month ON fell 10.98%, while SMH gained 0.87%, so sector-relative strength has weakened sharply.

Volume trendHow many shares are changing hands lately compared with normal. Heavy volume behind a move means more traders agree with it.

The 20-day average is 7.65 million shares. The 50-day average is 10.57 million. Recent volume is therefore below the heavier activity seen during the June and July reversal. The decline is still price-negative, but falling volume means selling pressure is less intense than it was near the peak. A breakout needs volume above roughly 10 million shares to show that many buyers support it.

VolatilityHow much the share price swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.

The 14-day average true range is $3.56, or 4.90% of the $72.65 price. The 20-day average daily high-to-low range is $2.59, or 3.57%. Fifty-day realised volatility is 81.09%, compared with 34.91% over 14 days. ON is still volatile, but it is calmer than during the June reversal. Use a smaller position. A stop narrower than about $3.50 can be hit by normal daily movement.

Long-Term Technical ViewThe wider chart over years. The big trend, the major price levels and how much the stock swings.

ON is up 54.94% over five years, but down 25.81% over three years. Long-term support sits near $44 to $55. Major resistance sits near $100, then $130 to $135. The multi-year chart is volatile and cyclical rather than a smooth long-term uptrend.

Technical biasWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.

Bearish. Price is below the $86.15 50-day average and the $77.95 200-day average. It has also fallen almost 40% in three months. This conflicts with my positive catalyst call. I give the catalyst more weight for the event window, but I would require a close above $78 before treating the chart as supportive.

What would invalidate this biasThe price level or chart change that would prove the technical read wrong.

A daily close above $85.50 on volume above 10 million shares would invalidate the bearish bias and signal a possible trend reversal. A close below $70.90 would strengthen the bearish view and shift the next support target toward $65.

Technical data timestampWhen the chart figures above were taken. Markets keep moving, so check live charts before you trade.

The indicators and closing-price data reflect the regular session ending 1 September 2026 at 20:00 UTC. Markets move after this analysis. Check live charts and current levels before placing your trade.

Stock OverviewThe basic numbers. Price, size of the company, sector, the past year of highs and lows, trading volume and the next earnings date.

ON trades at $72.65 as of 1 September 2026 at 20:00 UTC. Market value is approximately $29.38 billion. It operates in the technology sector and semiconductor industry. Its 52-week range is $44.56 to $134.92. Recent average daily volume is about 7.72 million shares. The next earnings report is estimated for 2 November 2026. The company has not confirmed that date.

What the company doesThe business in plain words. What it sells, who buys it, and how the money reaches the company.

onsemi designs and sells power-management, analog and sensing chips. Customers include vehicle makers, industrial-equipment companies, electronics manufacturers and AI data-center suppliers. Revenue mainly arrives through one-off semiconductor product sales to distributors and direct customers, rather than subscriptions. For example, an electric vehicle can use ON chips to convert battery power and operate cameras or safety sensors.

Revenue BreakdownWhere the money comes from, split by product, by part of the business and by country.

Q2 2026 revenue was $1.604 billion. Power Solutions Group produced $829.0 million, or 51.7%. Analog and Mixed-Signal Group produced $545.7 million, or 34.0%. Intelligent Sensing Group produced $228.8 million, or 14.3%. Power Solutions is the largest dependency. For the first six months of 2026, billed revenue was 26.1% from Hong Kong, 23.9% from the United Kingdom, 22.7% from Singapore and 19.2% from the United States. Billing location does not necessarily show where the final customer uses the product. A slowdown in power products would have the largest effect on company revenue and factory utilization.

Company GrowthHow sales, profit, earnings per share and spare cash have changed over the last few years.

Reported revenue was $8.326 billion in 2022, $8.253 billion in 2023, $7.082 billion in 2024 and $5.995 billion in 2025. That is a three-year compound decline of about 10.4% a year, calculated as ($5.995 billion divided by $8.326 billion) raised to one-third, minus one. Net income was $1.902 billion in 2022, $2.184 billion in 2023, $1.573 billion in 2024 and $121 million in 2025. Reported diluted EPS was $4.25 in 2022, $4.89 in 2023, about $3.64 in 2024 and about $0.30 in 2025. Free cash flow was $1.597 billion in 2022, $438 million in 2023, $1.212 billion in 2024 and $1.419 billion in 2025. Revenue and accounting profit declined, but free cash flow recovered. Q2 2026 revenue growth of 9% shows the cycle has started improving. Overall company growth is Medium because the current recovery follows several weak years.

Earnings PerformanceThe latest results, whether they beat or missed what the market expected, and what the company says comes next.

Q2 2026 revenue was $1.604 billion versus about $1.59 billion expected. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.74 versus about $0.71 expected. Q1 revenue was $1.513 billion versus $1.49 billion expected, with EPS of $0.64 versus $0.61. Q4 2025 revenue of $1.530 billion was slightly below expectations, while EPS of $0.64 beat the $0.62 estimate. Q3 2025 revenue of $1.55 billion and EPS of $0.63 both beat expectations. ON has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters. Current Q3 2026 guidance is $1.65 billion to $1.75 billion revenue and $0.81 to $0.93 non-GAAP EPS.

Financial HealthCash, debt, cash flow and profit margins, and whether the company keeps issuing new shares. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.

At 3 July 2026, cash was $3.515 billion and short-term investments were $350 million. Gross debt was $4.505 billion, giving net debt of about $990 million before short-term investments. Q2 free cash flow was $425.4 million. GAAP gross margin was 38.4% and operating margin was 16.1%. Non-GAAP gross margin improved to 39.3% from 37.6% one year earlier. The company repurchased 8.8 million shares during the first half of 2026, which more than offset normal employee-share issuance. Strong liquidity, positive free cash flow and an undrawn revolving facility give ON the ability to survive a weak year without an immediate equity raise. Financial health is Strong, although acquisition funding and $804.9 million of convertible debt classified as current require attention.

ValuationWhat you pay today for what the company earns, next to its rivals and its own past. Rated Cheap, Fair or Expensive.

The trailing P/E is approximately 48.11. The forward P/E is approximately 18.01. A reliable current PEG ratio could not be confirmed. Enterprise value to EBITDA is approximately 16.50. These ratios show how much you pay today for each dollar of company earnings or operating cash profit. NXPI trades near 18.96 times trailing earnings, while MCHP's depressed earnings create a trailing multiple above 100. A consistent current set of forward peer multiples could not be confirmed. ON looks Fair rather than cheap. Its forward multiple assumes earnings recovery, while the high trailing multiple shows how weak recent reported profit has been.

ShareholdersWho owns the company. Big funds, company insiders, and whether ownership sits with only a few holders.

FMR held about 14.05%, BlackRock 10.53%, Vanguard Capital Management 7.15%, Vanguard Portfolio Management 5.04% and State Street 4.77% as of 30 June 2026. I cannot confirm a current precise insider-ownership percentage. Institutional ownership is highly concentrated. Large fund selling can therefore add significant pressure during a weak market.

Insider ActivityWhether the people running the company have been buying or selling their own shares lately.

A confirmed transaction on 12 February 2026 shows CEO Hassane El-Khoury sold 100 shares at $73.56, worth $7,356. I cannot confirm a meaningful open-market insider purchase during 2026. The pattern is quiet rather than a strong buying signal. Scheduled sales, tax withholding and equity-award activity should not be treated like a voluntary open-market purchase.

Dividends and BuybacksCash paid out to shareholders, whether that payment looks safe, and whether the company is buying back its own shares.

ON pays no regular dividend. The board authorized a $6.0 billion repurchase program running through 31 December 2028. The company used about $677.5 million during the first half of 2026, leaving roughly $5.3 billion authorized at 3 July 2026. Buybacks are meaningful at the current market value, but the authorization does not require management to purchase shares.

Competitive PositionWho the company competes with, how much of the market it holds, and what it has that rivals do not.

Main competitors include Infineon, STMicroelectronics, NXP, Texas Instruments, Microchip and Wolfspeed. Precise market share across ON's mixed product portfolio cannot be confirmed. Its advantages include a broad power-and-sensing portfolio, internal manufacturing, automotive qualification experience and growing AI power content. The advantage is durable where products are designed into long-life vehicle platforms. It is less durable in standard chips where customers can switch suppliers based on price.

Future OutlookWhat sales and profit are expected to do next, and what management has promised.

Management expects Q3 2026 revenue of $1.65 billion to $1.75 billion and expects AI data-center revenue to more than double in 2026. Analysts expect annual EPS to rise from about $3.23 to $4.50 in the following year, a gain near 39%. I cannot confirm a reliable one-to-three-year consensus revenue series. My view is positive. Revenue recovery, improving utilization and buybacks can lift EPS faster than sales, but automotive and industrial demand must continue improving.

Other Upcoming Company CatalystsOther events ahead that could move the share price, such as results, launches or approvals, apart from the catalyst this report is built on.

The proposed Synaptics acquisition remains a major catalyst. The exact shareholder-vote and closing dates cannot be confirmed. Q3 earnings are estimated for 2 November 2026, but the date is not confirmed. Updates on manufacturing-facility divestitures, GaNEXUS adoption, NVIDIA MGX design wins and Rivian R2 production can also move the stock over the next year.

Long-Term Company RisksWhat could weaken the business over the coming years, rather than around this one event.

The largest long-term risk is failure to restore profitable growth after revenue fell from $8.326 billion in 2022 to $5.995 billion in 2025. Other risks include automotive and electric-vehicle cyclicality, silicon-carbide pricing pressure, inventory corrections, integration problems, export restrictions, manufacturing underuse and reliance on distributors. One distributor represented about 11% of 2025 revenue. Synaptics also adds execution and financing risk. Slower structural growth worries me most because it would prevent the expected margin and valuation recovery.

Traderavel VerdictOur straight answer on the company after everything above, not on the trade. Quality, growth, price, risk and the long-term view.

onsemi is a strong business with useful power and sensing technology, proven free-cash-flow production and solid liquidity. Growth is medium because the company is recovering from a multi-year contraction. The valuation is fair because the forward multiple is reasonable, but it depends on a large earnings rebound. Long-term company risk is medium due to cyclicality, competition and acquisition execution. The long-term outlook is positive if AI power demand and automotive content growth outweigh pricing pressure. The stock best suits patient growth investors comfortable with semiconductor cycles. It does not suit income investors or anyone unable to tolerate large drawdowns.

For information only · not financial advice.

Expected price move and durationiHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Company overviewiHow good the company itself is, setting this event aside. Useful if you plan to hold the shares rather than trade the news.

Upcoming catalystiThe event that could move the share price.

Main stock affectediThe company the event affects most directly.

Current priceiWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.

Expected stock reactioniWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Action before the eventiWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Why the stock is affectediThe link between the event and this company.

Catalyst confidenceiHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

Stock-reaction confidenceiHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

When the market will reactiThe moment the price is likely to move, such as at the announcement or at the next market open.

Effect on the businessiWhat the event changes for the company itself, such as its sales, costs or profit.

Market expectations and forecastiWhat investors already expect from this event, and the numbers being forecast.

How much is already priced iniHow much of the expected outcome the share price already reflects before the event happens.

Expected price move and durationiHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Result needed for a big moveiWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.

Possible outcomesiThe main ways the event could turn out, with the expected stock reaction for each one.

Other affected stocksiOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.

What the market may be missingiSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.

What else lands that dayiOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

Main risksiWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.

Other factorsiAnything else worth knowing that the sections above do not cover.

Trend over 6 to 12 monthsiWhich way the share price has been heading over the past year, and how far it has travelled.

Recent price actioniWhat the shares have done over the last few weeks and sessions, and on what kind of volume.

Market structureiThe shape of the chart. Rising highs and rising lows mean an uptrend, falling ones mean a downtrend, and neither means the price is stuck in a range.

Support and resistance zonesiPrice areas where buyers have stepped in before, and price areas where sellers have. They often slow the price down when it gets there again.

50-day and 200-day moving averagesiThe average closing price over the last 50 days and the last 200 days. Where the price sits against them shows whether the recent trend is strong or fading.

Relative strengthiHow this stock has performed against the wider market and against its own sector over the same period.

Volume trendiHow many shares are changing hands lately compared with normal. Heavy volume behind a move means more traders agree with it.

VolatilityiHow much the share price swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.

Long-Term Technical ViewiThe wider chart over years. The big trend, the major price levels and how much the stock swings.

Technical biasiWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.

What would invalidate this biasiThe price level or chart change that would prove the technical read wrong.

Technical data timestampiWhen the chart figures above were taken. Markets keep moving, so check live charts before you trade.

Stock OverviewiThe basic numbers. Price, size of the company, sector, the past year of highs and lows, trading volume and the next earnings date.

What the company doesiThe business in plain words. What it sells, who buys it, and how the money reaches the company.

Revenue BreakdowniWhere the money comes from, split by product, by part of the business and by country.

Company GrowthiHow sales, profit, earnings per share and spare cash have changed over the last few years.

Earnings PerformanceiThe latest results, whether they beat or missed what the market expected, and what the company says comes next.

Financial HealthiCash, debt, cash flow and profit margins, and whether the company keeps issuing new shares. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.

ValuationiWhat you pay today for what the company earns, next to its rivals and its own past. Rated Cheap, Fair or Expensive.

ShareholdersiWho owns the company. Big funds, company insiders, and whether ownership sits with only a few holders.

Insider ActivityiWhether the people running the company have been buying or selling their own shares lately.

Dividends and BuybacksiCash paid out to shareholders, whether that payment looks safe, and whether the company is buying back its own shares.

Competitive PositioniWho the company competes with, how much of the market it holds, and what it has that rivals do not.

Future OutlookiWhat sales and profit are expected to do next, and what management has promised.

Other Upcoming Company CatalystsiOther events ahead that could move the share price, such as results, launches or approvals, apart from the catalyst this report is built on.

Long-Term Company RisksiWhat could weaken the business over the coming years, rather than around this one event.

Traderavel VerdictiOur straight answer on the company after everything above, not on the trade. Quality, growth, price, risk and the long-term view.

Expected price move and durationHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Company overviewHow good the company itself is, setting this event aside. Useful if you plan to hold the shares rather than trade the news.

Upcoming catalystThe event that could move the share price.

Main stock affectedThe company the event affects most directly.

Current priceWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.

Expected stock reactionWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Action before the eventWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Why the stock is affectedThe link between the event and this company.

Catalyst confidenceHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

Stock-reaction confidenceHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

When the market will reactThe moment the price is likely to move, such as at the announcement or at the next market open.

Effect on the businessWhat the event changes for the company itself, such as its sales, costs or profit.

Market expectations and forecastWhat investors already expect from this event, and the numbers being forecast.

How much is already priced inHow much of the expected outcome the share price already reflects before the event happens.

Expected price move and durationHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Result needed for a big moveWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.

Possible outcomesThe main ways the event could turn out, with the expected stock reaction for each one.

Other affected stocksOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.

What the market may be missingSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.

What else lands that dayOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

Main risksWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.

Other factorsAnything else worth knowing that the sections above do not cover.

Trend over 6 to 12 monthsWhich way the share price has been heading over the past year, and how far it has travelled.

Recent price actionWhat the shares have done over the last few weeks and sessions, and on what kind of volume.

Market structureThe shape of the chart. Rising highs and rising lows mean an uptrend, falling ones mean a downtrend, and neither means the price is stuck in a range.

Support and resistance zonesPrice areas where buyers have stepped in before, and price areas where sellers have. They often slow the price down when it gets there again.

50-day and 200-day moving averagesThe average closing price over the last 50 days and the last 200 days. Where the price sits against them shows whether the recent trend is strong or fading.

Relative strengthHow this stock has performed against the wider market and against its own sector over the same period.

Volume trendHow many shares are changing hands lately compared with normal. Heavy volume behind a move means more traders agree with it.

VolatilityHow much the share price swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.

Long-Term Technical ViewThe wider chart over years. The big trend, the major price levels and how much the stock swings.

Technical biasWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.

What would invalidate this biasThe price level or chart change that would prove the technical read wrong.

Technical data timestampWhen the chart figures above were taken. Markets keep moving, so check live charts before you trade.

Stock OverviewThe basic numbers. Price, size of the company, sector, the past year of highs and lows, trading volume and the next earnings date.

What the company doesThe business in plain words. What it sells, who buys it, and how the money reaches the company.

Revenue BreakdownWhere the money comes from, split by product, by part of the business and by country.

Company GrowthHow sales, profit, earnings per share and spare cash have changed over the last few years.

Earnings PerformanceThe latest results, whether they beat or missed what the market expected, and what the company says comes next.

Financial HealthCash, debt, cash flow and profit margins, and whether the company keeps issuing new shares. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.

ValuationWhat you pay today for what the company earns, next to its rivals and its own past. Rated Cheap, Fair or Expensive.

ShareholdersWho owns the company. Big funds, company insiders, and whether ownership sits with only a few holders.

Insider ActivityWhether the people running the company have been buying or selling their own shares lately.

Dividends and BuybacksCash paid out to shareholders, whether that payment looks safe, and whether the company is buying back its own shares.

Competitive PositionWho the company competes with, how much of the market it holds, and what it has that rivals do not.

Future OutlookWhat sales and profit are expected to do next, and what management has promised.

Other Upcoming Company CatalystsOther events ahead that could move the share price, such as results, launches or approvals, apart from the catalyst this report is built on.

Long-Term Company RisksWhat could weaken the business over the coming years, rather than around this one event.

Traderavel VerdictOur straight answer on the company after everything above, not on the trade. Quality, growth, price, risk and the long-term view.