PepsiCo reports third-quarter results at a 52-week low, with a quarter that closed before September’s diesel spike reached its delivery trucks

Upcoming catalystiThe event that could move the share price.

PepsiCo will post its third-quarter 2026 results, prepared management remarks and Form 10-Q at approximately 6:00 a.m. Eastern on Thursday 8 October 2026, which is 10:00 UTC, followed by a live question and answer session with chief executive Ramon Laguarta and chief financial officer Steve Schmitt at 8:15 a.m. Eastern, 12:15 UTC. The quarter covers the twelve weeks to 5 September.

Main stock affectediThe company the event affects most directly.

PepsiCo, Inc., Nasdaq ticker PEP.

Current priceiWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.

$128.63 as of 25 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC.

Expected stock reactioniWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Positive, and only just. The outcome work on this card puts a full reaffirmation at 35%, the middle case at 35% and a cut or cost warning at 30%. That is close to a three way split with the upside a nose ahead. The consensus for the quarter is unusually tight, from $2.26 to $2.33, so the headline will not surprise and the guidance language carries the move. The upside needs a reaffirmation with North American snack volume still growing after the price cuts. On 30 September JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Neutral on exactly that condition, writing that the Frito-Lay North America recovery appears to have stalled, and Barclays and Evercore cut their targets the same day. That is the sell side taking the other side of the upside case a week before the print. The downside needs the company to steer to the bottom of its range or warn that freight and packaging will eat the fourth quarter, and that risk is real, because this quarter closed before September's diesel spike reached the delivery fleet. What keeps the lean where it is, rather than moving it, is that the same three notes lower the bar they argue against. A stock already at a 52-week low has priced a good deal of the second case, and three houses marking it down in one session adds to that rather than subtracting from it.

Action before the eventiWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Watch. The shares are at a 52-week low with a 4.6% dividend yield, which draws buyers, but the consensus for the quarter is almost flat on last year and the full-year consensus already sits at the bottom of guidance. The report decides whether that is a floor or a step on the way down, and the options market prices a report-day move of about 3.5%.

Why the stock is affectediThe link between the event and this company.

PepsiCo cut the prices of Lay's, Doritos, Tostitos and Cheetos by up to 15% in February to win back shoppers. Volume came back in the first quarter, but North American snack revenue fell 2% in the second quarter and that division's core operating profit fell 8%. The third quarter shows whether the price cuts are now paying for themselves, and the outlook shows how much of the rise in diesel, freight and packaging costs lands on the fourth quarter.

Catalyst confidenceiHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

The event is confirmed and has 99% confidence of occurring at the stated time. My expected business outcome is core earnings close to the $2.30 consensus, organic revenue growth of 2% to 3%, and full-year guidance kept but pointed toward the lower half.

Stock-reaction confidenceiHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

50%. This is the thinnest call on any of these cards and the figure says so. The consensus for the quarter is tight enough that the headline is unlikely to surprise, which leaves the guidance carrying the move, and the guidance has a freight cost in front of it that the reported quarter never touched. What keeps the lean positive is the starting point: a 52-week low with an intact dividend case brings buyers on any reaffirmation.

When the market will reactiThe moment the price is likely to move, such as at the announcement or at the next market open.

The release lands three and a half hours before the regular session opens, so the first reaction is in pre-market trading. The 12:15 UTC question session, still before the open, is where analysts will press on North American margins and costs. The regular session from 13:30 UTC gives the first full reading, and the 8 October close the cleanest one.

Effect on the businessiWhat the event changes for the company itself, such as its sales, costs or profit.

Medium. PepsiCo is a $94 billion revenue business, and one quarter does not change its shape. What can change is the market's view of North America, which earns the highest margins in the group. A second quarter of falling snack profit after the price cuts would say the cuts bought volume at too high a price. A return to profit growth would say the reset is working.

Market expectations and forecastiWhat investors already expect from this event, and the numbers being forecast.

The Yahoo consensus from 17 analysts is core earnings of $2.30 a share, from $2.26 to $2.33, against $2.29 a year earlier, and revenue of $24.99 billion. It was $2.43 ninety days ago. For the full year, 23 analysts expect $8.56, which is 5.1% above 2025's core earnings of $8.14. The targets behind those estimates have been cut again since. On 30 September JPMorgan moved to Neutral with a $138 target, Barclays went to $133 from $142 and Evercore to $135 from $150, all inside one session and all before the print. PepsiCo's own full-year guidance, affirmed in July, is organic revenue growth of 2% to 4% and core constant-currency earnings growth of 4% to 6%, with about one point of help from currency. On 2025's $8.14 that implies roughly $8.55 to $8.71, so the consensus sits at the very bottom of the range. The fourth-quarter consensus of $2.43 is 7.6% above last year and carries more of the burden. My forecast is core earnings of $2.27 to $2.34 for the quarter and organic revenue growth of 2% to 3%, with guidance held but described as the lower half. These are my estimates, not company guidance.

How much is already priced iniHow much of the expected outcome the share price already reflects before the event happens.

High for a weak outlook, low for a cut. The shares are 25.0% below their February high of $171.48, down 9.54% over one month and at a 52-week low of $126.90 set on 25 September. Estimates for the quarter fell 5.3% over ninety days. The market has stopped paying for the turnaround story. What it has not priced is a formal cut to the full-year range, which PepsiCo has not made this year.

What else lands that dayiOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

The weekly US jobless claims arrive at 12:30 UTC, between PepsiCo's release and the open, and matter little for a staples company. Delta Air Lines reports the next morning. The event window is clear.

Expected price move and durationiHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Options-Implied Move At about 18:20 UTC on 28 September, with the shares near $128, the at-the-money straddle for the 9 October expiry, which includes the report, was about $5.61, or 4.4% of the price, across nine sessions. Using the 2 October expiry's implied volatility of about 23.5% for the eight ordinary sessions and the 9 October expiry's 32% for the whole period, the report day accounts for about ±3.5%, by my calculation. The sign describes size, not direction. Historical Event Analysis Second-quarter results on 9 July 2026 produced a 3.26% close-to-close loss. Revenue beat but core earnings of $2.20 missed by a cent, core operating margin fell 40 basis points and beverage volume declined. First-quarter results on 16 April 2026 produced a 2.28% gain, as the snack price cuts lifted Frito-Lay and Quaker volume by 2%. Fourth-quarter 2025 results on 3 February 2026 produced a 4.93% gain, with the price cuts and a plan for record productivity savings announced alongside. Third-quarter 2025 results on 9 October 2025 produced a 4.23% gain. Historical Average Move The average absolute move is 3.26% plus 2.28% plus 4.93% plus 4.23%, divided by four, or ±3.68%. The options market prices about the same, which is large for a consumer staples company whose ordinary day is 1.67%. Our Expected Move +3% to +6% if full-year guidance is reaffirmed without qualification and North American snack profit stops falling. -3% to -6% if guidance moves to the low end with a warning on costs, or is cut. A result in line with a cautious tone should trade between -2% and +2%. Impact Strength Medium. PepsiCo is worth about $176 billion and is one of the largest weights in the consumer staples sector, but its report moves its own shares more than it moves the group. Estimated Duration One to three trading days for the quarter. A formal guidance cut would last longer, because it resets the earnings base that the dividend and the valuation rest on.

Result needed for a big moveiWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.

A gain above 6% needs organic revenue growth above 3%, North American snack volume up again with profit flat or better, and a full-year outlook reaffirmed at the midpoint. A fall beyond 6% needs a cut to the 4% to 6% constant-currency earnings range, or a North American snack profit decline worse than the 8% of the second quarter. These thresholds are my estimates, not company guidance.

Possible outcomesiThe main ways the event could turn out, with the expected stock reaction for each one.

Positive outcome, 35% probability. Earnings meet or beat, snack volume grows, and guidance is reaffirmed in full. Expected reaction: up 3% to 6%. Middle outcome, 35% probability. Earnings land near $2.30, guidance is kept but steered to the lower half. Expected reaction: down 2% to up 2%. Negative outcome, 30% probability. North American margins fall again and the full-year range is cut or qualified by cost warnings. Expected reaction: down 3% to 6%.

Other affected stocksiOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.

Coca-Cola (KO) and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) react to beverage volume and pricing commentary. Mondelez (MDLZ) and General Mills (GIS) react to what PepsiCo says about snack demand, price cuts and store brands. The Consumer Staples Select Sector fund (XLP) moves modestly with it.

What the market may be missingiSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.

The quarter being reported closed on 5 September, before the worst of this autumn's fuel shock arrived. PepsiCo delivers most of its US snacks and a large part of its beverages directly to stores on its own trucks, so diesel is a real operating cost for it rather than a line buried in a supplier's price. New York Harbor diesel futures averaged about $3.89 a gallon in July and $4.23 in August, computed from the front-month contract, against $4.85 so far in September, and the US retail diesel price set records on 11 and 23 September. Most of that September rise falls into PepsiCo's fourth quarter, not the third. That matters in two directions. The third-quarter numbers may look better than the market's mood suggests, because the steepest cost increase is not in them. But the fourth quarter is where the consensus expects the most growth, 7.6% on last year, and it is the quarter now carrying the diesel bill. So the headline beat or miss is the less important number on 8 October. The words management uses about the fourth quarter are the more important one, and a clean third quarter followed by a vague outlook could still be read as a warning. The second thing is cash. PepsiCo plans $7.9 billion of dividends and $1.0 billion of buybacks this year, against trailing free cash flow of about $7.8 billion according to Yahoo data. The 4.6% yield that is drawing buyers to the 52-week low is currently being paid out of all of its free cash flow. That is sustainable for a while at a company this size, but it removes the margin for error if earnings slip.

Main risksiWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.

Overall event risk is Medium. The snack price cuts may keep costing profit without enough volume to replace it, and on 30 September JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Neutral arguing that the Frito-Lay North America recovery has stalled since the first quarter, with Barclays and Evercore cutting targets the same day. Store brands, which reached a reported 23.8% of US unit sales in the first half of 2026, and the spread of weight-loss drugs are pressing on savoury snack demand. Diesel, aluminium and packaging costs rose sharply late in the quarter, though the G7 agreed on 2 October to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency crude and diesel, which is the first thing this year pointing the fourth-quarter fuel bill down rather than up. Beverage volume in North America has been falling. A guidance cut after a year of reaffirmations would hit a stock whose appeal now rests on its dividend.

Other factorsiAnything else worth knowing that the sections above do not cover.

The shares fell 2.93% on 18 September on 23.5 million shares, the quarterly options and index expiry day, and have not recovered. RSI readings near 30 on the daily chart have been cited by technical services as oversold, which can bring buyers into the report on its own.

Trend over 6 to 12 monthsiWhich way the share price has been heading over the past year, and how far it has travelled.

Down. PEP fell 14.72% over six months and 9.52% over twelve through 25 September. The 52-week range is $126.90 on 25 September 2026 to $171.48 on 12 February 2026, and the price is 3.9% of the way up it.

Recent price actioniWhat the shares have done over the last few weeks and sessions, and on what kind of volume.

Down 9.54% over one month and 9.02% over three. The shares closed at $136.65 on 10 September and fell almost every session since, through a close of $129.75 on 18 September, to a new low of $126.90 during the 25 September session.

Market structureiThe shape of the chart. Rising highs and rising lows mean an uptrend, falling ones mean a downtrend, and neither means the price is stuck in a range.

Lower highs and lower lows since the February peak, and a fresh 52-week low set in the last session measured. There is no base yet: every rebound in September has failed below $132.

Support and resistance zonesiPrice areas where buyers have stepped in before, and price areas where sellers have. They often slow the price down when it gets there again.

First support is the 25 September low of $126.90, 1.34% below the current price. There is no tested support below it on the one-year chart. First resistance is $131 to $132, the 22 to 24 September highs, about 2.2% above. Stronger resistance is $136 to $138, the early September trading area and the 50-day average.

50-day and 200-day moving averagesiThe average closing price over the last 50 days and the last 200 days. Where the price sits against them shows whether the recent trend is strong or fading.

The 50-day average is $137.84 and the price is 6.68% below it. The 200-day average is $147.81 and the price is 12.97% below it. The 50-day is $9.97 below the 200-day, a bearish arrangement.

Relative strengthiHow this stock has performed against the wider market and against its own sector over the same period.

PEP fell 9.52% over twelve months against a 4.51% gain for the Consumer Staples Select Sector fund, a lag of 14.03 percentage points. Over six months it lagged by 15.85 points, over three months by 5.89 points and over one month by 4.66 points. It has lagged its sector on every window measured.

Volume trendiHow many shares are changing hands lately compared with normal. Heavy volume behind a move means more traders agree with it.

Average volume over 20 sessions is 8.95 million shares against 7.91 million over 50, about 13% higher. The heaviest session was 18 September at 23.5 million, a 2.93% fall. Rising volume into falling prices is selling pressure rather than a quiet drift.

VolatilityiHow much the share price swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.

The 14-day average true range is $2.15, or 1.67% of the price. Annualised realised volatility is 15.71% over 14 sessions against 17.66% over 50. The report-day implied move of about 3.5% is roughly twice an ordinary day.

Long-Term Technical ViewiThe wider chart over years. The big trend, the major price levels and how much the stock swings.

The shares have been in a downtrend since February and are now below both long averages with the shorter below the longer. A durable recovery needs a higher low and then a close back above the 50-day average near $138.

Technical biasiWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.

Bearish. A new 52-week low, price below both falling averages, the 50-day below the 200-day and poor relative strength on every window.

What would invalidate this biasiThe price level or chart change that would prove the technical read wrong.

A close above $132 would break the September pattern of failed rebounds and turn the bias Neutral. A close above the 50-day average at $137.84 would invalidate it.

Technical data timestampiWhen the chart figures above were taken. Markets keep moving, so check live charts before you trade.

Every price, return, average, range and volume figure in this group is computed from daily bars through the regular US session that ended at 20:00 UTC on 25 September 2026. Markets move after this is written. Check live charts before trading.

Stock OverviewiThe basic numbers. Price, size of the company, sector, the past year of highs and lows, trading volume and the next earnings date.

PEP closed the 25 September session at a 52-week low. With about 1.37 billion shares outstanding, market value is roughly $176 billion. The 52-week range is $126.90 to $171.48 and average 20-day volume is 8.95 million shares. The next earnings release is 8 October 2026.

What the company doesiThe business in plain words. What it sells, who buys it, and how the money reaches the company.

PepsiCo makes and sells snacks, grains and drinks worldwide. Its brands include Lay's, Doritos, Cheetos, Tostitos, Quaker, Pepsi, Gatorade and Mountain Dew. In North America it runs Frito-Lay and Quaker as one food division and a separate beverage division, and it delivers much of its product straight to stores with its own fleet.

Revenue BreakdowniWhere the money comes from, split by product, by part of the business and by country.

Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $24.18 billion. North American beverages produced $7.24 billion, North American foods $6.37 billion, Europe, the Middle East and Africa $4.98 billion, Latin American foods $2.94 billion, the international beverage franchise $1.52 billion and Asia Pacific $1.12 billion. International divisions grew organic revenue 4% to 9% while North American foods fell 2% and North American beverages rose 1%.

Company GrowthiHow sales, profit, earnings per share and spare cash have changed over the last few years.

2025 revenue was $93.93 billion, up 2.3%, with organic growth of 1.7% and core earnings flat at $8.14 a share. 2026 guidance is organic growth of 2% to 4% and core constant-currency earnings growth of 4% to 6%. Growth is Low: the international business is growing, but North America, the largest profit pool, is being reset.

Earnings PerformanceiThe latest results, whether they beat or missed what the market expected, and what the company says comes next.

Second-quarter revenue rose 6.4% to $24.18 billion with organic growth of 2.4%. Core earnings of $2.20 rose 4% but missed the consensus by a cent. Core gross margin was flat at 54.3% and core operating margin fell 40 basis points to 16.8%. The last four reports beat the consensus three times and missed once.

Financial HealthiCash, debt, cash flow and profit margins, and whether the company keeps issuing new shares. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.

Yahoo data shows about $10.7 billion of cash against $53.2 billion of debt, and trailing free cash flow of about $7.8 billion. PepsiCo plans to return about $8.9 billion this year, $7.9 billion in dividends and $1.0 billion in buybacks, which is more than trailing free cash flow. Financial health is Average: an investment-grade balance sheet with steady cash generation, carrying a dividend that currently uses all of it.

ValuationiWhat you pay today for what the company earns, next to its rivals and its own past. Rated Cheap, Fair or Expensive.

Core earnings over the last four reported quarters total $8.36 a share, $2.29, $2.26, $1.61 and $2.20, which puts the shares on about 15 times trailing core earnings. On the 2026 consensus of $8.56 the multiple is about 15, and on the 2027 consensus of $8.95 about 14. The dividend yield is about 4.6%. The valuation is Cheap against PepsiCo's own history, and reflects a market that no longer expects much growth.

ShareholdersiWho owns the company. Big funds, company insiders, and whether ownership sits with only a few holders.

Institutions hold about 81.5% of the shares and insiders about 0.2%, according to Yahoo data. The largest holders are the major index fund managers. Ownership is broad and not concentrated, so no single seller dominates the stock.

Insider ActivityiWhether the people running the company have been buying or selling their own shares lately.

Quiet to selling. Chief executive Ramon Laguarta sold 27,945 shares for about $4.68 million in a transaction reported in early March 2026, near the February high, and retained control of about 521,645 shares. No recent open-market purchases by directors or executives were found.

Dividends and BuybacksiCash paid out to shareholders, whether that payment looks safe, and whether the company is buying back its own shares.

PepsiCo raised its dividend 4% from June 2026 to an annual $5.92 a share, its 54th consecutive annual increase. It plans $1.0 billion of buybacks this year, a small amount against a $176 billion company. The dividend is the reason most holders own the stock.

Competitive PositioniWho the company competes with, how much of the market it holds, and what it has that rivals do not.

PepsiCo leads the US salty snack market through Frito-Lay and owns food and drink brands sold in most countries, with a direct store delivery network that competitors cannot easily copy. Coca-Cola leads it in soft drinks. Store brands and cheaper snacks are taking share at the low end, and weight-loss drugs are a new pressure on the whole category.

Future OutlookiWhat sales and profit are expected to do next, and what management has promised.

Management is cutting prices, trimming the US product range by about 20%, closing some Frito-Lay plants and counting on record productivity savings to restore growth. International volume is growing at the fastest pace since 2022, according to the chief executive. My outlook is Neutral: the international business and the brands are strong, but North America has to prove the reset works before earnings grow again.

Other Upcoming Company CatalystsiOther events ahead that could move the share price, such as results, launches or approvals, apart from the catalyst this report is built on.

Fourth-quarter and full-year results, with 2027 guidance, are expected in early February 2027, with the date not yet announced. The US holiday season and the Super Bowl marketing period test snack demand in the fourth and first quarters. Any update on the productivity programme or on further portfolio changes could move the shares between reports.

Long-Term Company RisksiWhat could weaken the business over the coming years, rather than around this one event.

Weight-loss drugs may permanently reduce demand for salty snacks and sugary drinks. Store brands are gaining share. Commodity, packaging and fuel costs swing margins, and tariffs affect aluminium. Regulation of ingredients, labelling and sugar is tightening in several markets. A dividend that absorbs all free cash flow limits flexibility if earnings fall.

Traderavel VerdictiOur straight answer on the company after everything above, not on the trade. Quality, growth, price, risk and the long-term view.

PepsiCo is a strong-quality company with low growth, average financial health, a cheap valuation and medium long-term company risk. Its brands, distribution and international growth are real, but the North American business that earns most of its profit is in the middle of a reset that has not yet shown it can grow profit again. It suits income investors who want a large, dependable dividend and can wait for the reset. It does not suit investors looking for growth or momentum, and it will not reward anyone expecting the February price back soon.