Macy's second-quarter results will test whether its turnaround can support another guidance increase

Upcoming catalystiThe event that could move the share price.

Macy's reports fiscal second-quarter 2026 results on September 10, 2026. Management's conference call starts at 12:00 UTC, which is 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time.

Main stock affectediThe company the event affects most directly.

Macy's, Inc., ticker M on the New York Stock Exchange.

Current priceiWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.

$22.59 as of 25 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC, the regular-session close

Expected stock reactioniWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Positive. I expect another earnings beat, but the size of the rise will depend on comparable sales, gross margin and full-year guidance.

Action before the eventiWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Watch. Do not chase the stock before earnings. The options market is already charging a large premium, while the shares remain below the 50-day moving average. The preferred trade is to buy after the report if the price holds above $24.40 on strong volume and management raises guidance.

Why the stock is affectediThe link between the event and this company.

This report tests whether Macy's turnaround is becoming sustainable. Strong comparable sales would show that renovated stores, better products and luxury brands are attracting more shoppers. Stable margins would show that sales are not being bought through heavy discounting. Those two results would support higher earnings and a higher valuation. Weak Macy's nameplate sales or lower margins would suggest that recent growth came mainly from Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury, which are too small to carry the whole company.

Catalyst confidenceiHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

The earnings event is confirmed by Macy's. Confidence that it occurs at the scheduled date and call time is 99%. My forecast is for net sales and adjusted EPS to reach or slightly exceed the top of management's guidance, with less confidence on a full-year guidance increase.

Stock-reaction confidenceiHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

63%. Macy's has beaten expectations repeatedly, but the stock is up about 72% over one year and options price a large move. A normal beat may produce only a modest rise.

When the market will reactiThe moment the price is likely to move, such as at the announcement or at the next market open.

The first reaction should occur before the market opens on September 10, 2026. The main price discovery window is the opening hour and the management call. Guidance comments may influence trading for 1 to 3 sessions.

Effect on the businessiWhat the event changes for the company itself, such as its sales, costs or profit.

My base case is for modest revenue growth, continued positive comparable sales and adjusted EPS near or above the top of the $0.29 to $0.34 company range. Stable inventory and markdowns could protect gross margin. A guidance raise would improve confidence that the turnaround can produce sustainable profit and free cash flow.

Market expectations and forecastiWhat investors already expect from this event, and the numbers being forecast.

Management guided to second-quarter net sales of $4.75 billion to $4.80 billion, comparable sales from flat to positive 1.0%, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.9% to 7.2%, and adjusted EPS of $0.29 to $0.34. The visible analyst average is about $4.78 billion of net sales and $0.37 of adjusted EPS. My forecast is net sales of $4.80 billion to $4.86 billion, comparable sales growth of 1.0% to 2.0%, and adjusted EPS of $0.38 to $0.42. For trading, EPS above $0.40, positive Macy's nameplate comparable sales and maintained or raised annual guidance should support a rise. Revenue below $4.75 billion or a margin warning would weaken the setup.

How much is already priced iniHow much of the expected outcome the share price already reflects before the event happens.

Medium. The stock has risen about 72% over one year, so the market already recognizes the turnaround. However, it has fallen about 15% from its August high of $26.59 and now trades below its 50-day average. That pullback reduces the amount of optimism embedded immediately before the report. The options market still expects a large move, showing that uncertainty remains high.

Expected price move and durationiHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Options-Implied Move The September 11, 2026 options imply a move of about ±11.39%. The ± sign measures size, not direction. The options market is not taking the positive side of this report. Historical Event Analysis September 3, 2025: Macy's beat second-quarter expectations and raised annual guidance. The stock gained 20.7% during the regular session. December 3, 2025: Macy's beat expectations and raised its annual forecast, but issued a cautious holiday outlook. The stock gained about 2.0% during the session. March 18, 2026: Fourth-quarter results exceeded expectations. The stock gained 4.73% from the prior close. June 3, 2026: First-quarter adjusted EPS and sales beat expectations, and annual guidance increased. The stock closed 0.59% higher. Its intraday move was larger, but much of the initial gain faded. Historical Average Move The four comparable reactions averaged +7.0%. Calculation: 20.7% + 2.0% + 4.73% + 0.59% = 28.02%. Dividing by four gives +7.01%, rounded to +7.0%. All four reactions were positive, although their size varied widely. Our Expected Move +4% to +9%. This is below the options-implied ±11.39% because another beat is partly expected and the company already raised guidance last quarter. It is close to the +7.0% historical average. A strong guidance raise could push the move above this range. Impact Strength High. Earnings can change the market's view of the turnaround, and Macy's has a history of double-digit reactions when comparable sales or guidance produce a major surprise. Estimated Duration 1-3 trading days. A small earnings beat may fade within one session. A clear acceleration in Macy's nameplate sales, stronger margins and raised annual guidance could support a repricing lasting several weeks.

Result needed for a big moveiWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.

A large positive move probably requires comparable sales above 2%, Macy's nameplate comparable sales clearly positive, adjusted EPS above $0.40, gross margin no worse than roughly flat year over year, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance raised above the current $2.00 to $2.20 range.

Possible outcomesiThe main ways the event could turn out, with the expected stock reaction for each one.

Positive scenario: Net sales exceed $4.82 billion, comparable sales rise more than 2%, adjusted EPS exceeds $0.40 and guidance increases. Expected reaction is +9% to +15%. Neutral scenario: Results land near the top of guidance, but management leaves annual guidance unchanged. Expected reaction is -2% to +4%. Negative scenario: Comparable sales are flat or negative, margins contract sharply, adjusted EPS misses $0.29 or guidance falls. Expected reaction is -10% to -18%.

Other affected stocksiOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.

KSS and DDS could move on department-store demand read-through. TGT could react to comments about middle-income discretionary spending. TJX could benefit if Macy's reports that shoppers remain highly price-sensitive.

What the market may be missingiSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.

Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury are growing much faster than the main Macy's chain. Bloomingdale's comparable sales rose 10.2% and Bluemercury rose 6.4% in the first quarter. If this continues while renovated Macy's stores remain positive, investors may begin to value the company as a portfolio containing stronger luxury and beauty assets rather than as one declining department-store chain. The overlooked risk is concentration. Macy's still produces about 84% of company net sales, so strong smaller brands cannot offset a renewed decline at the main chain indefinitely.

What else lands that dayiOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

Macy's reports at 12:00 UTC on 10 September 2026, and the August producer price index is released thirty minutes later at 12:30 UTC alongside initial jobless claims. That half hour is the entire window in which these results are the only thing being priced. Existing home sales and wholesale trade follow at 14:00 UTC. The consumer price index then arrives at 12:30 UTC the next morning, 11 September. Producer and consumer price data are not incidental to this stock the way they would be to a software company: they move the read on goods pricing, on discounting and on the consumer, which is exactly what a department store's guidance is a claim about. Net effect: the release is boxed in on both sides by inflation data speaking to the same question. What to expect on the day. The pre-market move between 12:00 and 12:30 UTC is the cleanest read you will get on the quarter, and it is thirty minutes long in a thin book. From 12:30 UTC the pre-market is trading producer prices, and by the 13:30 UTC open the two are mixed together. Do not treat the opening print as the market's verdict on a guidance increase, and do not expect the next morning to clarify it, because that is consumer prices.

Main risksiWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.

The main risks are weak discretionary spending, renewed tariff costs, fuel and freight inflation, excessive markdowns, slowing credit-card income and a cautious full-year outlook. Short interest is about 12.3% of shares, which can amplify both gains and losses. Overall risk level is high because earnings, options positioning and the turnaround narrative create a wide outcome range.

Other factorsiAnything else worth knowing that the sections above do not cover.

Watch inventory growth relative to sales. Inventory rising faster than sales would increase future markdown risk. Also watch credit-card revenue, which increased 11.7% in the first quarter and supported profit. A deterioration in consumer credit could reverse that benefit.

Trend over 6 to 12 monthsiWhich way the share price has been heading over the past year, and how far it has travelled.

The 12-month trend is rising. The stock gained about 71.7% through August 25, 2026. The highest price in the period was $26.59 in early August 2026. The lowest was about $13.09 in early September 2025. Over six months, the stock gained about 11.7%.

Recent price actioniWhat the shares have done over the last few weeks and sessions, and on what kind of volume.

The stock fell from a closing area near $26.21 on August 4 to $22.59 on August 25, a decline of about 13.8%. Over the latest 20 trading days it fell about 10.2%. Volume during recent sessions was generally near 5 million shares, close to or slightly above the 30-day average of about 4.84 million. The decline therefore had meaningful participation. The price sits about 15% below its 52-week high and about 73% above its 52-week low.

Market structureiThe shape of the chart. Rising highs and rising lows mean an uptrend, falling ones mean a downtrend, and neither means the price is stuck in a range.

The long-term structure remains an uptrend, but the short-term structure has changed to lower highs and lower lows since early August. A simple way to picture it is that buyers previously pushed the stock toward $26.60, but each recent bounce has stalled lower. The stock is now testing whether the $22 to $23 area becomes a floor.

Support and resistance zonesiPrice areas where buyers have stepped in before, and price areas where sellers have. They often slow the price down when it gets there again.

Support at $22.40 to $22.60 has been tested around three times during August, including August 20, August 21 and August 25. A close below $22.40 would expose the $21.20 to $21.50 zone near the 200-day average. Resistance at $23.40 to $24.00 has been tested repeatedly during the second half of August. A close above it would reduce immediate selling pressure. The stronger resistance zone is $24.10 to $24.40, where the 20-day and 50-day averages sit. A close above $24.40 on heavy volume would improve the structure. Major resistance is $26.00 to $26.60.

50-day and 200-day moving averagesiThe average closing price over the last 50 days and the last 200 days. Where the price sits against them shows whether the recent trend is strong or fading.

A moving average is the average closing price over a set number of trading days. The 50-day average is about $24.15, and the stock is below it. The 200-day average is about $21.44, and the stock remains above it. Both averages are rising. The 50-day is above the 200-day, which normally signals a positive longer-term trend. I cannot confirm the exact date of the last crossover.

Relative strengthiHow this stock has performed against the wider market and against its own sector over the same period.

Over six months, Macy's gained about 11.7%, compared with roughly 11.1% for the S&P 500 and 3.9% for the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector. Macy's therefore slightly led the market and clearly led its sector. That leadership weakened during the last month. Macy's fell about 2.6%, while the broad market gained about 3.6%.

Volume trendiHow many shares are changing hands lately compared with normal. Heavy volume behind a move means more traders agree with it.

Recent daily volume has been near 5.1 million shares versus a 30-day average of about 4.84 million, roughly 5% higher. Volume has not surged enough to confirm panic selling, but the above-average activity supports the importance of the August pullback. Heavy volume on a rebound would show that more buyers agree with the move. A thin-volume rise would be less convincing.

VolatilityiHow much the share price swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.

The 14-day average true range is about $0.82, which is 3.6% of the $22.59 share price. Recent realized volatility is about 36%, while options-implied volatility is about 53%. The stock is volatile, and the options market expects it to become wilder around earnings. Position sizes should be smaller than normal. A stop only 2% from entry would sit inside an ordinary daily range and could be triggered by normal movement.

Long-Term Technical ViewiThe wider chart over years. The big trend, the major price levels and how much the stock swings.

Over five years, the stock is roughly flat to slightly lower, with a decline of about 3.9%, despite major swings. Long-term support sits near $13 to $15. Long-term resistance sits near $26.60, followed by the $30 area. This is a cyclical, high-volatility chart rather than a steady long-term compounder.

Technical biasiWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.

Neutral. The stock remains above a rising 200-day average and the 50-day remains above the 200-day. However, price is below the 50-day average and has formed lower highs since early August. This is weaker than the positive catalyst call. I give more weight to the earnings catalyst for the immediate reaction, but I would require a break above $24.40 before treating the chart as bullish.

What would invalidate this biasiThe price level or chart change that would prove the technical read wrong.

A close above $24.40 with volume above 6 million shares would change the bias to bullish and target the $26.00 to $26.60 zone. A close below $21.20 would change the bias to bearish and suggest that the longer-term trend is failing.

Technical data timestampiWhen the chart figures above were taken. Markets keep moving, so check live charts before you trade.

Price, volume and indicator data reflect the regular session ending August 25, 2026 at 20:00 UTC. Markets move after this analysis. Check live charts and current levels before placing a trade.

Stock OverviewiThe basic numbers. Price, size of the company, sector, the past year of highs and lows, trading volume and the next earnings date.

Macy's traded at $22.59 at the August 25, 2026 regular-session close. Market value was about $5.94 billion. It operates in the consumer discretionary sector and department-store industry. The 52-week range was $13.09 to $26.59. Average daily volume was about 4.84 million shares. The next confirmed earnings date is September 10, 2026.

What the company doesiThe business in plain words. What it sells, who buys it, and how the money reaches the company.

Macy's sells clothing, shoes, cosmetics, fragrances, jewelry and home products through stores, websites and mobile applications. Its main brands are Macy's, Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury. Customers pay for merchandise at the time of purchase. The company also earns recurring revenue from its credit-card profit-sharing program and advertising through Macy's Media Network. An everyday example is a customer buying shoes at Macy's while a cosmetics brand pays Macy's to advertise to that customer online.

Revenue BreakdowniWhere the money comes from, split by product, by part of the business and by country.

Fiscal 2025 net sales were $21.764 billion. Women's accessories, shoes, cosmetics and fragrances produced $9.128 billion, or 41.9%. Women's apparel produced $4.764 billion, or 21.9%. Men's and children's products produced about $4.659 billion, or 21.4%. Home and other products produced $3.213 billion, or 14.8%. The Macy's nameplate generated about 84% of fiscal 2025 net sales. Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury together generated the remaining 16%. The business is overwhelmingly based in the United States. It has licensed operations in Dubai and Kuwait, but I cannot confirm a reliable geographic revenue percentage for those markets. The company depends most on the Macy's nameplate. Renewed weakness there would outweigh strong growth from its smaller brands.

Company GrowthiHow sales, profit, earnings per share and spare cash have changed over the last few years.

Net sales were $24.46 billion in fiscal 2021, $24.44 billion in 2022, $23.09 billion in 2023, $22.29 billion in 2024 and $21.76 billion in 2025. The four-year compound decline was about 2.9% per year. Net income was $1.43 billion in 2021, $1.15 billion in 2022, $45 million in 2023, $582 million in 2024 and $642 million in 2025. Diluted EPS was $4.55 in 2021, $4.08 in 2022, $0.16 in 2023, $2.07 in 2024 and $2.32 in 2025. Free cash flow was about $2.4 billion in 2021, $727 million in 2022, $674 million in 2023, $760 million in 2024 and $1.06 billion in 2025. Revenue has contracted while profit and cash flow have recovered from the weak fiscal 2023 result. Free cash flow is improving fastest. Revenue is growing slowest and remains the main weakness. Overall company growth is low until the turnaround produces sustained sales expansion.

Earnings PerformanceiThe latest results, whether they beat or missed what the market expected, and what the company says comes next.

First-quarter 2026 total revenue was $4.892 billion, above the visible market estimate near $4.61 billion. Adjusted EPS was $0.13, above the roughly $0.02 to $0.03 consensus range. Comparable sales rose 3.0%. Fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS was $1.67 versus about $1.55 expected, with revenue also above expectations. Third-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS was $0.09 versus an expected loss near $0.13. Second-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS was $0.41 versus $0.19 expected. The recent pattern is consistent earnings beats. Current fiscal 2026 guidance is net sales of $21.5 billion to $21.75 billion, comparable sales growth of 0.5% to 1.2%, adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.7% to 7.9%, and adjusted EPS of $2.00 to $2.20. Guidance was raised after the first quarter.

Financial HealthiCash, debt, cash flow and profit margins, and whether the company keeps issuing new shares. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.

At May 2, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $1.3 billion and total debt was $2.4 billion, leaving net debt of about $1.1 billion. The company had $2.0 billion available under its asset-backed credit facility and no material long-term debt maturity until 2030. First-quarter operating cash flow was $292 million. Capital expenditure was $177 million. Reported free cash flow was $140 million after other adjustments. Fiscal 2025 free cash flow was about $1.06 billion. First-quarter gross margin was 38.9%, down 0.3 percentage points year over year. Fiscal 2025 operating margin was 4.6%, up from 4.0% in 2024, although settlement income helped the reported result. Shares outstanding declined about 2.5% over one year. The company should be able to survive a bad year without raising equity because it has cash, credit access, positive free cash flow and limited near-term debt maturities.

ValuationiWhat you pay today for what the company earns, next to its rivals and its own past. Rated Cheap, Fair or Expensive.

The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is about 9.3. Forward price-to-earnings is about 10.0. Enterprise value to EBITDA is about 7.0. I cannot confirm a reliable current PEG ratio. These ratios show how much you pay today for each dollar the company earns. Macy's trades near slower-growing department-store and apparel peers, while high-quality off-price retailers command much higher multiples. Its multiple is low in absolute terms, but higher than the deepest levels from its own recent history. The valuation is fair because the low multiple is balanced by weak long-term revenue growth and execution risk.

ShareholdersiWho owns the company. Big funds, company insiders, and whether ownership sits with only a few holders.

Recent reported holdings show BlackRock at about 8.8%, Dimensional Fund Advisors near 6.0%, and Vanguard entities near 4.2% to 4.8%. I cannot confirm a current total insider ownership percentage. Ownership is spread across several institutions rather than controlled by one shareholder. Large passive funds can add volatility during index or portfolio rebalancing, but no single holder appears to control the company.

Insider ActivityiWhether the people running the company have been buying or selling their own shares lately.

Chief Executive Officer Tony Spring reported selling about 50,000 shares in early April 2026 for roughly $897,000. I cannot confirm whether the sale was made under a preset trading plan. I found no confirmed large open-market insider purchase during the latest reviewed period. The visible pattern is selling rather than buying, but one transaction does not prove that management expects the stock to fall.

Dividends and BuybacksiCash paid out to shareholders, whether that payment looks safe, and whether the company is buying back its own shares.

The annualized dividend is about $0.766 per share, producing a yield near 3.4% at $22.59. Macy's reinstated its regular dividend in 2021 and has increased the annual payment by about 27% since then. The payout is roughly 32% of trailing earnings, which appears sustainable if profit remains near current levels. Macy's has a $2.0 billion repurchase authorization. About $1.1 billion remained after the first quarter. The company repurchased $50 million of shares during that quarter and $250 million during fiscal 2025.

Competitive PositioniWho the company competes with, how much of the market it holds, and what it has that rivals do not.

Key competitors include Kohl's, Dillard's, Target, TJX, Ross Stores, Amazon and specialty apparel and beauty retailers. Macy's advantages include recognized brands, important urban real estate, a large customer database, strong cosmetics operations and the faster-growing Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury brands. The advantage is moderately durable, but not protected by high switching costs. Customers can easily buy similar products elsewhere. Exclusive products, better renovated stores and loyalty data can help, while poor service, stale merchandise or excessive promotions would weaken the position. I cannot confirm a reliable published company-wide market-share figure.

Future OutlookiWhat sales and profit are expected to do next, and what management has promised.

Management expects fiscal 2026 comparable sales to grow 0.5% to 1.2%, while store closures keep reported net sales between $21.5 billion and $21.75 billion. Analysts currently expect adjusted EPS to rise from roughly $2.22 in the current year to about $2.36 next year, growth of approximately 6.3%. Management expects the Reimagine 200 stores, luxury brands and digital business to support growth. My view is that profit and free cash flow can improve faster than revenue because weak stores are closing and capital is being directed toward better locations. Sustainable multi-year growth still requires the main Macy's chain to remain positive after the easiest turnaround comparisons pass.

Other Upcoming Company CatalystsiOther events ahead that could move the share price, such as results, launches or approvals, apart from the catalyst this report is built on.

Third-quarter earnings are expected late in 2026, but the exact date is not confirmed. Holiday sales updates, further store closures, real-estate sales and additional share repurchases could also move the stock. Macy's expects $250 million to $300 million of remaining property proceeds during fiscal 2026 and later periods, but exact transaction dates are not confirmed.

Long-Term Company RisksiWhat could weaken the business over the coming years, rather than around this one event.

The largest risk is that the main Macy's chain returns to declining sales after turnaround spending slows. Other risks include competition from off-price and online retailers, dependence on discretionary consumer spending, tariff and freight costs, shrinking credit-card income, inventory markdowns and execution problems during store closures. The business also depends on women's accessories, shoes, cosmetics and fragrances for about 42% of net sales. A slowdown in that group would have an outsized effect. The risk that worries me most over several years is structural customer migration toward online, off-price and specialized retailers. Macy's must keep improving the store experience without spending more than the stores can earn back.

Traderavel VerdictiOur straight answer on the company after everything above, not on the trade. Quality, growth, price, risk and the long-term view.

Macy's is an average-quality retailer with strong near-term liquidity, low long-term growth and medium business risk. Its valuation is fair rather than clearly cheap because the stock already reflects meaningful turnaround progress. The long-term outlook is positive but conditional. Free cash flow, store productivity and the luxury brands are improving, while the main chain remains the deciding factor. The stock suits patient value investors who accept retail volatility and want dividends, buybacks and turnaround exposure. It does not suit investors seeking predictable revenue growth or low price volatility.