INTU result

After the event it went to +1.80% at its highest, and later to −1.74% at its lowest, against the close price before investor day.

The news wasMixed

The numbers were held and the customer base was not. On the good side, fiscal 2027 was reaffirmed at $23,279 million to $23,512 million with GAAP earnings per share of $20.12 to $20.36, the first quarter was guided to 11% revenue growth and 30% to 33% non-GAAP earnings growth, mid-market revenue grew 39% on 28% customer growth, Intuit Enterprise Suite reached nearly $150 million of annualised revenue at four times the prior year, and Credit Karma was guided to 11% to 13% growth. On the bad side, Intuit disclosed that it had missed new-customer targets in do-it-yourself tax and QuickBooks Online, lost a point of IRS e-file share in fiscal 2026, guided TurboTax to 2% to 3% and Mailchimp to down 1% to flat, named price as the main reason customers leave, and raised none of its long-term targets.

Measured fromChart

Intuit reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 guidance to the dollar, left its three-year growth bands where they already were at 10% to 15% for the business platform and 4% to 8% for consumer, and told investors it had missed its own new-customer targets in do-it-yourself tax and QuickBooks Online, with chief executive Sasan Goodarzi saying the number one reason customers left was price. The stock rose to $323.86 in the first thirty-nine minutes of the presentation, gave all of it back within the hour and closed 1.57% lower at $313.13 on a day the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.69%.

What else moved the price

The card called the day crowded and it was, but not in the way it expected. Its own read was that a beaten-down software name would trade the Federal Reserve rather than its targets, and that the honest measure was the 17 September close against the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.69% to 26,418.30 that day, recovering Wednesday’s post-Fed selloff, so duration was a tailwind and Intuit still fell 1.57%. A second move was running underneath it: the three software peers the card named all fell harder than Intuit did, with Salesforce down 3.07%, BILL 2.92% and HubSpot 2.91%, while ServiceNow fell 0.97%, Paycom 0.67% and the IGV software ETF rose 0.78%. So a sell-off in application software was working against the stock on the day, and Intuit outperformed the cohort the card itself picked. The following session was quarterly index expiry, which the card told readers to discount, and Intuit fell another 3.17% on 2.4 times its recent average volume.

What we said	What happened	Result
Intuit Annual Investor Day on 17 September 2026 from 15:00 UTC to 19:00 UTC, with a 99% probability of occurring because the date and time are published.	It ran exactly as scheduled, 8:00 am to 12:00 pm Pacific at the Mountain View headquarters, which is 15:00 to 19:00 UTC. The hour was right as well as the day, and that mattered here: the whole of the price reaction was struck inside the first hundred minutes of it.	Correct
Expected stock reaction: positive.	The stock fell. It was $316.03 when the presentation opened, reached $323.86 at 15:39 UTC, was back through the previous close within the hour, bottomed at $312.58 at 16:37 UTC and closed at $313.13, down 1.57% on the $318.13 close before the event and 8.69% below the $342.94 the card signalled at.	Incorrect
Base case, at 70% confidence: management reaffirms fiscal 2027 guidance and presents stronger long-term AI and margin targets.	Half of it happened. Fiscal 2027 guidance was reaffirmed to the dollar at $23,279 million to $23,512 million, 9% to 10% growth, with GAAP earnings per share of $20.12 to $20.36. The long-term targets were reaffirmed rather than raised, at 10% to 15% three-year compound growth for the business platform and 4% to 8% for consumer, and no new margin target was set. Stronger targets were the half the card needed and the half it did not get.	Partly correct
Stock-reaction confidence 64%. The valuation and recent decline create room for a relief rally, but the stock may need numerical targets rather than product demonstrations to produce a lasting move.	The confidence was misplaced and the condition behind it was the right one. Intuit put real numbers on the table, including segment-level fiscal 2027 guidance and three-year growth bands, and the numbers were the same ones it already had. The relief rally lasted thirty-nine minutes.	Partly correct
The first reaction should begin during the presentation at 15:00 UTC on 17 September 2026. The main trading window is the final two hours of that regular session and the next one to three trading days.	The timing was right and the window was wrong. The reaction began on cue and was finished long before the final two hours: the high of $323.86 came at 15:39 UTC and the low of $312.58 at 16:37 UTC, both inside the presentation, and the last four hours of the session moved the stock 55 cents.	Partly correct
A credible long-term revenue target above 10%, with continuing margin expansion, would support a move toward $360 to $370. Reaffirming existing guidance without new measurable targets would probably produce little follow-through.	The conditional the card wrote is the one that fired, and it under-described the outcome. Weighting the reaffirmed three-year bands by the fiscal 2027 segment guidance, the business platform is about 56% of revenue at 10% to 15%, consumer about 38% at 4% to 8% and Mailchimp about 5% at flat to down 1%, which implies group growth above 10% only at the top of both bands. The above-10% target never arrived and neither did $360 to $370. What followed was not little follow-through but a further 3.17% fall the next session.	Partly correct
How much is priced in: low. The market has clearly priced in slower growth and disruption risk, but it has not fully priced in a successful return to durable double-digit growth.	Untested in the direction the card meant, and answered in the other. No return to durable double-digit growth was offered, so the upside the card said was unpriced was never put in front of the market. What the day did establish is that the downside was not fully priced either: a reaffirmation with no new targets took another 4.70% out of the stock over two sessions, from $318.13 to $303.19.	Partly correct
Options-implied move of plus or minus 7.7%, from the $342.50 straddle at about $26.55 against the $342.94 share price, using options expiring 18 September 2026.	Far too wide for the event and too narrow for the contract. The event day moved the stock 1.57%, about a fifth of what the straddle charged. But the straddle the card priced ran to the 18 September expiry from the $342.94 it was measured against, and the stock closed that expiry at $303.19, 11.59% lower, so the option the card called expensive finished in the money by a wider margin than it cost.	Partly correct
Historical average move of plus or minus 3.1% across two events: plus 3.8% over two sessions around the September 2025 Investor Day and minus 2.5% around September 2024.	The closest of the three size estimates on the card. The two-session move was minus 4.70%, from $318.13 to $303.19, larger than either prior event but far nearer than the plus or minus 7.7% the options charged or the plus 4% to plus 8% the card itself forecast. On the card’s own instruction to ignore the expiry Friday, the comparable figure is minus 1.57%, which sits inside the historical band.	Partly correct
Our expected move: +4% to +8%.	Wrong in direction and in size. The stock closed the event session 1.57% lower and the following session 3.17% lower, for 4.70% across the two.	Incorrect
Impact strength: high. A credible multi-year framework can materially change revenue estimates and the valuation multiple.	The framework did move estimates, in both directions. Truist Securities cut its target to $300 and Freedom Broker to $370 on what they called muted fiscal 2027 guidance and a more cautious long-term outlook, Piper Sandler raised its to $290, and Evercore ISI held $400 and Mizuho $430, Evercore framing the guidance as a tax strategy shift rather than structural deterioration. A day that leaves the sell side that far apart is a high-impact day.	Correct
Estimated duration: 1 to 3 trading days for the first move, several weeks if analysts change long-term forecasts, and a presentation without new numbers is more likely to create a temporary intraday reaction.	Partly. There were new numbers, and the reaction was still almost entirely intraday: the full range of the day was struck between 15:39 and 16:37 UTC. It did not stop at one day, though. The stock fell a further 3.17% on 18 September, and the targets moved in both directions afterwards.	Partly correct
For a gain above 8%, management likely needs to target sustainable revenue growth above 10% after fiscal 2027, show measurable AI monetization, protect QuickBooks customer growth and commit to further margin expansion.	A good list, and three of the four failed. Group growth above 10% was not targeted, QuickBooks Online new-customer targets were missed, and no new margin commitment was made. AI was shown in product terms rather than in revenue, with Intuit Intelligence, an AI-native do-it-yourself filing experience for the coming season and AI preparing assisted returns for expert review. There was no gain above 8%.	Correct
Three scenarios: positive at +6% to +10% if fiscal 2027 is reaffirmed with long-term growth above 10% and AI adoption quantified, neutral at -2% to +3% if guidance is reaffirmed with mostly product demonstrations and broad strategy, negative at -8% to -14% on slower customer growth, weak Mailchimp, lower long-term margins or more restructuring.	The day split the scenarios rather than picking one. It delivered the neutral range, minus 1.57%, on content that was closer to the negative case: Intuit disclosed that it had missed new-customer targets in do-it-yourself tax and QuickBooks Online and lost a point of IRS e-file share in fiscal 2026, which is the slower customer growth the negative branch names. Across the two sessions the card said to measure, minus 4.70% falls between the neutral floor and the negative ceiling, in no scenario at all.	Partly correct
Other affected stocks: HRB could fall if Intuit shows stronger TurboTax AI and expert-assisted tax services, BILL could face pressure if QuickBooks expands deeper into payments, and HUBS and CRM could react if Intuit presents a stronger small-business platform.	All four fell and the ranking was backwards. On 17 September BILL fell 2.92%, HubSpot 2.91% and Salesforce 3.07%, while H&R Block, the one the card tied to a direct attack, fell only 0.67%, and Intuit expanded Credit Karma Tax to free federal filing with $15 state returns on the day. All three of the software names also fell harder than Intuit itself, so what moved them was not a read-through from a strong Intuit presentation.	Partly correct
What the market may be missing: an AI tool can answer a tax question, but Intuit can also calculate, file and move the money. The overlooked risk is Mailchimp, guided between a 1% decline and no growth, so weak execution could offset progress elsewhere.	Both halves were right and the company argued the first one itself. Intuit’s answer was the transaction rather than the answer: Intuit Intelligence built on permissioned customer data, an AI-native filing experience and AI drafting assisted returns for expert review. Mailchimp was confirmed at $1,256 million to $1,266 million, down 1% to flat, the only segment guided to shrink, and became a separate reportable segment on 1 August 2026.	Correct
The day is thoroughly occupied by the Federal Reserve. Expect the share price to move on duration rather than on the targets, and the honest read is the close on 17 September set against the Nasdaq’s move on the same day.	The card set the right test and failed it. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.69% to 26,418.30 on 17 September, taking back Wednesday’s Fed selloff as yields and oil fell, and Intuit fell 1.57%, underperforming by 3.3 points. Duration went Intuit’s way and the stock went the other way, which is the one combination that rules out the card’s explanation.	Incorrect
The next session, 18 September, is quarterly index expiry with volume typically two to three times normal. Do not use Friday’s close for anything: an expiry close on a beaten-down large capitalisation is a mechanical number, not an opinion about the plan.	The volume call was accurate to the multiple. Intuit traded 7.70 million shares on 18 September against an average of 3.23 million over the ten sessions since the card was published, 2.4 times normal, and closed 3.17% lower at $303.19. Whether that fall was mechanical cannot be settled from the tape, which is the point of the instruction: the card told readers in advance not to try.	Correct
Action before the event: watch. Buy only a small starter position near support or after price confirms a breakout above $360.	The discipline is what saved the reader. On 3 September, the session after the card was published, the stock traded to $363.70 and closed at $344.30, so the breakout never confirmed on a close. From that high it fell 14.82% to $309.80 by 10 September. Anyone who bought the print above $360 was down 11% inside five sessions, and anyone who waited for the close was never filled.	Correct
Support is $330 to $335. A close below $330 would expose $322, followed by the major $253 to $260 zone. Resistance is $357 to $360, and a close above $360 on strong volume would improve the setup.	Support went first and resistance was never tested on a close. The stock closed at $332.70 on 4 September, at $318.93 on 8 September, straight through the $322 the card named, and at $303.19 on 18 September. The $363.70 print on 3 September was intraday and the close that day was $344.30, nineteen dollars below it.	Correct
What would invalidate the bearish bias: a weekly close above $373. A close below $322 would instead confirm renewed weakness and raise the probability of a return toward $280 to $300.	The bearish leg fired and the bullish leg was never approached. The close below $322 came on 8 September at $318.93, and the stock has since traded to $303.19, within a few dollars of the top of the $280 to $300 zone the card said that break would open.	Correct
Technical bias is bearish and conflicts with the positive catalyst call. I give the event more weight for a short reaction, but the chart more weight for position size and exit discipline.	The single best judgement on the card, and it was made against the card’s own conclusion. The catalyst call was wrong in direction, the chart was right, and the rule of sizing off the chart is the only thing on the page that protected a reader who acted on the rest of it.	Correct
The long-term risk that worries me most is slower customer growth hidden by price increases. Pricing can support revenue for a time, but it cannot replace a healthy customer base forever.	Confirmed from the stage by management, which is as direct as this gets. Intuit said it had fallen short of new-customer targets in do-it-yourself tax and QuickBooks Online and lost a point of IRS e-file share in fiscal 2026, and chief executive Sasan Goodarzi said the number one reason customers left was price. Credit Karma reached 37.4 million customers, up 2%, on average revenue per customer of $198, up 11%, so revenue per head grew more than five times faster than the head count.	Correct
Fiscal 2027 will introduce Mailchimp as a separately managed reporting segment, which will give investors clearer evidence of whether the business is stabilizing.	Correct and already in force. Mailchimp became a separate reportable segment on 1 August 2026 and was guided at $1,256 million to $1,266 million for fiscal 2027, down 1% to flat.	Correct

Price Table	Price (USD)	Change from signal	Change from lowest (regular session)	Change from close before investor day
After signal
Price at analysis (Regular session)Wed 02 Sept 2026, 20:00, close	342.94	—	+10.70%
Sat 5, Sun 6, Mon 7 - no trading
Lowest price (Regular session)10 Sept 2026, 13:37	309.80	−9.66%	—
Highest price (Regular session)03 Sept 2026, 13:34	363.70	+6.05%	+17.40%
5 days with no trading
Close price before investor dayWed 16 Sept 2026, 20:00, close	318.13	−7.23%	+2.69%
After investor day (17 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC)
Price after investor day (Regular session)17 Sept 2026, 15:00	316.03	−7.85%	+2.01%	−0.66%
Lowest price (Regular session)17 Sept 2026, 16:37	312.58	−8.85%	+0.90%	−1.74%
Highest price (Regular session)17 Sept 2026, 15:39	323.86	−5.56%	+4.54%	+1.80%
Close price after investor dayThu 17 Sept 2026, 20:00, close	313.13	−8.69%	+1.07%	−1.57%
Current price (Regular session)Fri 18 Sept 2026, 20:00, close	303.19	−11.59%	−2.13%	−4.70%

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

INTUIntuit Inc.

Positive

Intuit Investor Day could reset AI growth targets after a 48% one-year stock decline

Event passedThu, 17 Sept 2026, 15:00

Investor Days

StockThe company this write-up is about, with its ticker symbol.: INTU, Intuit Inc.
PriceWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and the exact minute that price was struck.: $342.94, 20:00 2/September/2026
Event Date And TimeWhen the event is expected. Shown in your own time zone, or in UTC if you switch the clock at the top of the page. If the exact hour is not confirmed, you only see the date.: 15:00 17/September/2026
What else lands that dayOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.: CrowdedThis is the session after a Fed decision and the one before quarterly expiry, so a beaten-down software name trades duration rather than its own targets.
Expected Stock ReactionWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.: Positive
Technical biasWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.: Bearish
ActionWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.: Watch
Catalyst confidenceHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.: 99/100
Stock-reaction confidenceHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.: 64/100

Expected price move and durationHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Options-implied moveHow big a move options traders are paying for right now. This is the market's own estimate, not ours.: ±7.7%
Historical average moveHow much this stock moved on average after similar events in the past.: ±3.1%
Our expected moveOur own estimate of the move, after weighing the market's estimate, the past moves and the situation now.: +4% to +8%
ImpactHow big we think that move is for this stock. Rated Low, Medium or High.: High
Estimated durationHow long the move is likely to last, such as intraday, a few trading days, or several weeks.: 1-3 trading days

Priced-in levelHow much of this news the share price already reflects. Rated Low, Medium or High. The higher it is, the less room the price has left to move.: Low
Risk levelHow much can go wrong with this idea if the event surprises. Rated Low, Medium or High.: High
Other affected StocksOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.: HRB , BILL , HUBS , CRM

Company overviewHow good the company itself is, setting this event aside. Useful if you plan to hold the shares rather than trade the news.

Company qualityHow solid the business is overall. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.: Strong
GrowthHow fast the company is growing its sales and profit. Rated Low, Medium or High.: High
Financial healthCash, debt, cash flow and profit margins, and whether the company keeps issuing new shares. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.: Strong
ValuationWhat you pay today for what the company earns, next to its rivals and its own past. Rated Cheap, Fair or Expensive.: Cheap
RiskHow much could go wrong with the business over years. Rated Low, Medium or High. This is not Risk level above, which is about this one event.: Medium
Overall outlookOur long-term view of the company. Positive, Neutral or Negative. This is not Expected Stock Reaction, which covers one event.: Positive
Best suited forThe kind of investor this stock fits, such as someone holding for years or someone who wants income.: Long-term growth investors who can tolerate volatility

Upcoming catalystThe event that could move the share price.

Intuit Annual Investor Day, scheduled for 17 September 2026 from 15:00 UTC to 19:00 UTC. Management will discuss strategy, artificial intelligence, product plans and long-term growth priorities.

Main stock affectedThe company the event affects most directly.

Intuit, ticker INTU.

Current priceWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.

$342.94 as of 02 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC, the regular-session close.

Expected stock reactionWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Positive.

Action before the eventWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Watch. The stock looks unusually cheap against its own history, but the chart remains damaged and options are expensive. I would buy only a small starter position near support or after price confirms a breakout above $360.

Why the stock is affectedThe link between the event and this company.

Intuit has already guided to slower fiscal 2027 revenue growth of 9% to 10%, despite strong profit growth. The Investor Day can explain whether AI services, QuickBooks, TurboTax Live and Credit Karma can restore faster growth after fiscal 2027. Credible targets would increase the earnings investors are willing to value today. Weak targets would confirm that the lower valuation is justified.

Catalyst confidenceHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

The event itself has a 99% probability of occurring because Intuit has published the date and time. My base case is that management reaffirms fiscal 2027 guidance and presents stronger long-term AI and margin targets. Confidence in that base-case outcome is 70%.

Stock-reaction confidenceHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

64%. The valuation and recent decline create room for a relief rally, but the stock may need numerical targets rather than product demonstrations to produce a lasting move.

When the market will reactThe moment the price is likely to move, such as at the announcement or at the next market open.

The first reaction should begin during the presentation at 15:00 UTC on 17 September 2026. The main trading window is the final two hours of that regular session and the next one to three trading days. Analyst estimate changes could extend the reaction for several weeks.

Effect on the businessWhat the event changes for the company itself, such as its sales, costs or profit.

The event itself does not immediately create revenue. It can change expectations for customer growth, prices, operating margins and long-term earnings. The most important business question is whether Intuit can turn AI tools into paid services while reducing the human work needed to serve each customer.

Market expectations and forecastWhat investors already expect from this event, and the numbers being forecast.

Management currently expects fiscal 2027 revenue of $23.279 billion to $23.512 billion, growth of 9% to 10%. It expects GAAP operating income growth of 26% to 27% and GAAP diluted earnings per share of $20.12 to $20.36, growth of 22% to 24%. My forecast is that management keeps those targets and argues for low-double-digit revenue growth after fiscal 2027, supported by QuickBooks, higher-value TurboTax services and Credit Karma. A credible long-term revenue target above 10%, with continuing margin expansion, would support a move toward $360 to $370. Reaffirming existing guidance without new measurable targets would probably produce little follow-through.

How much is already priced inHow much of the expected outcome the share price already reflects before the event happens.

Low. INTU is down about 48% over one year and trades near 21 times trailing earnings, far below its five-year average of about 49 times. The market has clearly priced in slower growth and disruption risk. It has not fully priced in a successful return to durable double-digit growth.

Expected price move and durationHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Options-Implied Move: ±7.7% using options expiring 18 September 2026. This is the size priced by the straddle, not a directional forecast. The estimate uses the midpoint of the nearest $342.50 call and put, about $26.55 combined, divided by the $342.94 share price. Options are pricing an unusually wide move because the expiration comes one day after the event. Historical Event Analysis: On 18 September 2025, INTU gained 1.85% during Investor Day and another 1.92% on 19 September, a cumulative two-session move of about +3.8%. On 26 September 2024, the stock was nearly flat during Investor Day, then fell about 2.5% by the next close. These are the two most recent comparable annual Investor Days. Historical Average Move: ±3.1% across two events. The calculation is the average absolute two-session move, 3.8% plus 2.5%, divided by two. Past reactions went both ways, and the sample is limited. Our Expected Move: +4% to +8%. This is above the small historical sample because the stock has suffered a major valuation reset and the market needs clarity on AI disruption. It overlaps the options-implied move because both upside and downside sensitivity are elevated. Impact Strength: High. A credible multi-year framework can materially change revenue estimates and the valuation multiple. Estimated Duration: 1-3 trading days for the first move. Several weeks if analysts change long-term forecasts. A presentation without new numbers is more likely to create a temporary intraday reaction.

Result needed for a big moveWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.

For a gain above 8%, management likely needs to target sustainable revenue growth above 10% after fiscal 2027, show measurable AI monetization, protect QuickBooks customer growth and commit to further margin expansion. A large decline would require weaker long-term growth targets, poor Mailchimp expectations or evidence that AI investment will reduce margins without producing new revenue.

Possible outcomesThe main ways the event could turn out, with the expected stock reaction for each one.

Positive: Fiscal 2027 guidance is reaffirmed, long-term revenue growth is targeted above 10%, and management quantifies AI adoption or paid conversion. Expected reaction is +6% to +10%. Neutral: Guidance is reaffirmed, but management gives mostly product demonstrations and broad strategy. Expected reaction is -2% to +3%. Negative: Management signals slower customer growth, weak Mailchimp performance, lower long-term margins or more restructuring. Expected reaction is -8% to -14%.

Other affected stocksOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.

HRB could fall if Intuit shows stronger TurboTax AI and expert-assisted tax services. BILL could face pressure if QuickBooks expands deeper into payments and financial management. HUBS and CRM could react if Intuit presents a stronger small-business sales and marketing platform.

What the market may be missingSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.

The market is focused on AI replacing traditional software interfaces. It may be underestimating the value of Intuit's financial data, trusted tax relationships and payment workflows. An AI tool can answer a tax question, but Intuit can also calculate, file and move the money. The overlooked risk is Mailchimp. Fiscal 2027 guidance calls for Mailchimp revenue between a 1% decline and no growth, so weak execution could offset progress elsewhere.

What else lands that dayOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

The Intuit investor day begins at 15:00 UTC on 17 September 2026, the session after the Federal Open Market Committee decision and its summary of economic projections. The morning carries initial jobless claims, housing starts and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey at 12:30 UTC, with pending home sales at 14:00 UTC. None of those is large on its own, but the day as a whole is the market's second pass at the Fed, which is when longer-duration positioning actually changes and when a software company that has already fallen 48% over a year is most exposed to the rate story rather than to its own. The next session, 18 September, is quarterly index expiry and the S&P rebalance, with volume typically two to three times normal and driven by mechanics. Net effect: the day is clear of competing corporate news and thoroughly occupied by the Federal Reserve. What to expect on the day. Expect the AI growth targets to be reported cleanly, because nothing else corporate is scheduled against them, and expect the share price to move on duration rather than on the targets. The honest read is the close on 17 September set against the Nasdaq's move on the same day. Do not use Friday's close for anything: an expiry close on a beaten-down large capitalisation is a mechanical number, not an opinion about the plan.

Main risksWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.

The main risks are a presentation without new targets, continued software-sector selling, slower small-business demand, weak Mailchimp performance and further compression in valuation. Overall risk is High because options imply a large move and the chart remains below its long-term trend.

Other factorsAnything else worth knowing that the sections above do not cover.

The Federal Reserve's 16 September 2026 policy decision occurs one day before Investor Day. A sharp move in bond yields could increase or reduce the stock reaction. You should separate the market-wide interest-rate move from the company-specific presentation.

Trend over 6 to 12 monthsWhich way the share price has been heading over the past year, and how far it has travelled.

Falling. INTU has declined about 48.2% over one year. The verified 52-week high was $705.08 on 22 September 2025, and the verified low was $252.84 on 22 June 2026. The highest verified closing price was $702.09 on 22 September 2025. I cannot confirm the exact lowest closing price, but the lowest traded price was $252.84.

Recent price actionWhat the shares have done over the last few weeks and sessions, and on what kind of volume.

INTU rose about 2.4% from $334.71 on 12 August 2026 to roughly $342.94 on 2 September 2026. It then fell about 4.2% from $358.06 on 28 August to the current level. On 26 August, the stock opened near $323 after the fiscal 2026 earnings reaction, almost 10% below the previous close, then recovered to $345.88 on 11.45 million shares. The current price sits in the lower fifth of its 52-week range.

Market structureThe shape of the chart. Rising highs and rising lows mean an uptrend, falling ones mean a downtrend, and neither means the price is stuck in a range.

The 12-month structure is bearish because the stock produced lower highs and a much lower low. The shorter-term chart is attempting to form a range between roughly $322 and $373. A simple example is that buyers have appeared near $322 to $335, while sellers have repeatedly stopped rallies near $360 to $373.

Support and resistance zonesPrice areas where buyers have stepped in before, and price areas where sellers have. They often slow the price down when it gets there again.

Support is $330 to $335. This area was tested around 12 August, 17 August and 27 August 2026. A close below $330 would expose $322, followed by the major $253 to $260 zone. Resistance is $357 to $360. This area was tested several times between 13 August and 1 September 2026. A close above $360 on strong volume would improve the setup. The next resistance is $370 to $373, tested around 21 and 24 August.

50-day and 200-day moving averagesThe average closing price over the last 50 days and the last 200 days. Where the price sits against them shows whether the recent trend is strong or fading.

A moving average is the average closing price over a chosen number of trading days. The 50-day simple moving average is about $310.49 and is rising after the June rebound. Price is above it. The 200-day average is about $431.88 and is falling. Price is below it by about 20.6%. The 50-day remains below the 200-day, a bearish long-term arrangement commonly called a death cross. I cannot confirm the exact crossover date.

Relative strengthHow this stock has performed against the wider market and against its own sector over the same period.

INTU has returned about -48.2% over one year and is clearly lagging the S&P 500. I cannot confirm a reliable exact 12-month percentage for the S&P 500 and software-sector comparison from the same timestamp. Relative performance improved from the June low but weakened again during the last few sessions.

Volume trendHow many shares are changing hands lately compared with normal. Heavy volume behind a move means more traders agree with it.

Recent volume has fallen from the earnings-driven peaks. Volume was 7.20 million shares on 25 August and 11.45 million on 26 August, compared with about 3.11 million on 2 September. Recent average daily volume is approximately 4.72 million shares, so the latest session was about 66% of average. The rebound is therefore not receiving consistent heavy-volume confirmation.

VolatilityHow much the share price swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.

The 14-day average true range is about $16.69, equal to 4.9% of the $342.94 price. Thirty-day realized volatility is about 48% annualized. This is high for a large, profitable software company. You should use a smaller position and a wider stop than you would use for a stock moving only 1% to 2% each day.

Long-Term Technical ViewThe wider chart over years. The big trend, the major price levels and how much the stock swings.

The multi-year uptrend peaked above $700 before breaking sharply. Major long-term support sits near $250 to $260. Major resistance is near $430, then $600 to $705. The stock can rebuild a long-term uptrend, but it first needs to reclaim the falling 200-day average.

Technical biasWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.

Bearish. Price is about 20.6% below the 200-day average, the 50-day remains below the 200-day and the stock is down about 48% over one year. This conflicts with my positive catalyst call. I give the event more weight for a short reaction, but the chart more weight for position size and exit discipline.

What would invalidate this biasThe price level or chart change that would prove the technical read wrong.

A weekly close above $373, followed by a close above $400 on rising volume, would invalidate the near-term bearish bias. I would then view the June low as a possible durable bottom. A close below $322 would instead confirm renewed weakness and raise the probability of a return toward $280 to $300.

Technical data timestampWhen the chart figures above were taken. Markets keep moving, so check live charts before you trade.

2 September 2026, 20:00 UTC, reflecting the completed regular US session. Markets move after this analysis. Check a live chart, current volume and current support levels before placing a trade.

Stock OverviewThe basic numbers. Price, size of the company, sector, the past year of highs and lows, trading volume and the next earnings date.

INTU was $342.94 at 3 September 2026, 00:15 UTC. Market value was approximately $94.65 billion. It is an application-software company in the technology sector. Its 52-week range was $252.84 to $705.08. Recent average daily volume was about 4.72 million shares. The next earnings date has not been formally announced, so I cannot confirm it.

What the company doesThe business in plain words. What it sells, who buys it, and how the money reaches the company.

Intuit sells financial software and services to consumers, small businesses and accountants. TurboTax prepares and files taxes. QuickBooks handles accounting, payroll, payments and business finances. Credit Karma connects consumers with financial products. Mailchimp provides marketing tools. Most revenue comes from subscriptions and services, which is more repeatable than one-time software sales.

Revenue BreakdownWhere the money comes from, split by product, by part of the business and by country.

Fiscal 2026 revenue was $21.4 billion. Global Business Solutions generated about $12.9 billion, roughly 60% of total revenue. Consumer businesses generated about $8.6 billion, roughly 40%. Within Consumer, TurboTax produced $5.3 billion, Credit Karma $2.6 billion and ProTax $647 million. Current regional revenue percentages were not disclosed in the verified fiscal 2026 release, so I cannot confirm them. The largest dependency is Global Business Solutions. A slowdown in QuickBooks customer growth or pricing would have the greatest effect on total revenue.

Company GrowthHow sales, profit, earnings per share and spare cash have changed over the last few years.

Fiscal 2023 revenue was $14.368 billion, net income was $2.384 billion and diluted EPS was $8.42. Fiscal 2024 revenue was $16.285 billion, net income was $2.963 billion and EPS was $10.43. Fiscal 2025 revenue was $18.831 billion, net income was $3.869 billion and EPS was $13.67. Fiscal 2026 revenue was about $21.4 billion, net income was $4.566 billion and EPS was $16.46. Free cash flow, calculated as operating cash flow minus property and equipment purchases, was about $4.836 billion in fiscal 2023, $4.693 billion in fiscal 2024, $6.123 billion in fiscal 2025 and $8.617 billion in fiscal 2026. From fiscal 2023 to fiscal 2026, revenue grew at roughly a 14% annual rate, net income at 24%, EPS at 25% and this free-cash-flow measure at 21%. Profit and EPS grew faster than revenue, which indicates improving operating leverage.

Earnings PerformanceThe latest results, whether they beat or missed what the market expected, and what the company says comes next.

The latest quarter, fiscal Q4 2026, produced revenue of about $4.4 billion, up 14%, and GAAP diluted EPS of $1.34. Full-year revenue, operating income and EPS all increased at double-digit rates. The company issued fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $23.279 billion to $23.512 billion and GAAP EPS guidance of $20.12 to $20.36. I cannot confirm reliable consensus beat-or-miss figures for each of the last four quarters from one consistent dataset. The operating pattern remains positive, but fiscal 2027 revenue guidance represents a slowdown from fiscal 2026 growth.

Financial HealthCash, debt, cash flow and profit margins, and whether the company keeps issuing new shares. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.

Cash and investments were $7.2 billion and total debt was $7.7 billion on 31 July 2026, leaving net debt of about $0.5 billion. Fiscal 2026 operating cash flow was $8.838 billion and free cash flow using the calculation above was $8.617 billion. GAAP operating income was about $5.9 billion, giving an operating margin near 27.6%. I cannot confirm the current gross-margin figure. Diluted weighted-average shares fell from 283 million in fiscal 2025 to 277 million in fiscal 2026, a reduction of about 2.1%. Intuit should be able to survive a bad year without raising equity because annual cash generation is high relative to net debt.

ValuationWhat you pay today for what the company earns, next to its rivals and its own past. Rated Cheap, Fair or Expensive.

Trailing price-to-earnings is about 20.96. Forward price-to-earnings is about 15.56. PEG is about 1.24. Enterprise value to EBITDA is about 13.97. These figures mean how much you pay today for each dollar of earnings or operating cash profit. Intuit's five-year averages were approximately 49.26 times earnings, 28.15 times forward earnings, 1.76 PEG and 32.47 times EBITDA. I cannot confirm current like-for-like figures for every competitor. Against its own history, the stock looks cheap. The discount is justified only if long-term growth remains permanently lower.

ShareholdersWho owns the company. Big funds, company insiders, and whether ownership sits with only a few holders.

Using roughly 272 million shares as a recent share base, BlackRock's 26.25 million shares represent about 9.7%, Vanguard Capital Management's 17.96 million represent about 6.6%, State Street's 13.29 million represent about 4.9% and Invesco's 9.53 million represent about 3.5%. Reported insider ownership is about 2.35%. Institutional ownership is high, which improves liquidity but can amplify moves when major funds change software-sector exposure.

Insider ActivityWhether the people running the company have been buying or selling their own shares lately.

Director Vasant Prabhu made an open-market purchase worth about $541,668 in May 2026. Director Dan Newhouse sold 284 shares at $262.32 on 10 July 2026, worth about $74,499. The recent pattern is mixed, but the open-market purchase during the decline is more informative than routine grants or scheduled selling. I cannot confirm that the July sale was made under a preset trading plan.

Dividends and BuybacksCash paid out to shareholders, whether that payment looks safe, and whether the company is buying back its own shares.

Intuit pays a dividend, but I cannot confirm the latest declared annual rate, current yield and payout ratio from the verified information used here. The larger capital-return tool is repurchasing shares. Intuit spent $5.5 billion on repurchases in fiscal 2026, helping reduce diluted shares by about 2%. The board had $3.5 billion of remaining repurchase authorization on 31 January 2026. Repurchases are discretionary and have no required completion date.

Competitive PositionWho the company competes with, how much of the market it holds, and what it has that rivals do not.

Main competitors include H&R Block in consumer tax, Xero and Sage in accounting, BILL in small-business financial workflows, HubSpot in marketing tools and other consumer-finance platforms in Credit Karma's markets. Intuit's advantage is the combination of trusted brands, customer financial data and the ability to complete transactions. For example, QuickBooks can identify that a bill is due, record it and help make the payment inside one system. Published current market-share percentages were unavailable, so I cannot confirm them. The advantage is durable if customers continue to trust Intuit with sensitive financial data.

Future OutlookWhat sales and profit are expected to do next, and what management has promised.

Management expects fiscal 2027 revenue growth of 9% to 10% and GAAP EPS growth of 22% to 24%. Current analyst figures indicate approximately $23.41 billion of fiscal 2027 revenue and $25.64 billion for the following year. My view is that profit can continue growing faster than revenue through pricing, automation and buybacks. Returning revenue growth above 10% after fiscal 2027 depends on stronger customer growth and successful AI monetization.

Other Upcoming Company CatalystsOther events ahead that could move the share price, such as results, launches or approvals, apart from the catalyst this report is built on.

Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings should be the next major company event, but the date has not been announced, so I cannot confirm it. Fiscal 2027 will also introduce Mailchimp as a separately managed reporting segment. That change will give investors clearer evidence of whether the business is stabilizing. The 2027 US tax season will test TurboTax Live growth and AI-assisted filing adoption.

Long-Term Company RisksWhat could weaken the business over the coming years, rather than around this one event.

The largest risk is disruption from low-cost AI tools that make basic accounting and tax questions easier to answer. Other risks are slow Mailchimp growth, dependence on US tax rules and tax season, competition in small-business software, lending and credit exposure inside financial services, cyber-security failures and large share-based compensation. The risk that worries me most is slower customer growth hidden by price increases. Pricing can support revenue for a time, but it cannot replace a healthy customer base forever.

Traderavel VerdictOur straight answer on the company after everything above, not on the trade. Quality, growth, price, risk and the long-term view.

Intuit is a strong business with high growth, strong financial health and a durable customer-data advantage. Its valuation is cheap against its own history, although the discount reflects real disruption and execution concerns. Multi-year company risk is medium because the balance sheet and cash flow are strong, but software competition and AI-driven change are significant. My long-term outlook is positive. The stock suits long-term growth investors who can tolerate large price swings and wait for the chart to repair. It does not suit investors who need stable prices, high income or a low-risk short-term holding.

For information only · not financial advice.

Expected price move and durationiHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Company overviewiHow good the company itself is, setting this event aside. Useful if you plan to hold the shares rather than trade the news.

Upcoming catalystiThe event that could move the share price.

Main stock affectediThe company the event affects most directly.

Current priceiWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.

Expected stock reactioniWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Action before the eventiWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Why the stock is affectediThe link between the event and this company.

Catalyst confidenceiHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

Stock-reaction confidenceiHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

When the market will reactiThe moment the price is likely to move, such as at the announcement or at the next market open.

Effect on the businessiWhat the event changes for the company itself, such as its sales, costs or profit.

Market expectations and forecastiWhat investors already expect from this event, and the numbers being forecast.

How much is already priced iniHow much of the expected outcome the share price already reflects before the event happens.

Expected price move and durationiHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Result needed for a big moveiWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.

Possible outcomesiThe main ways the event could turn out, with the expected stock reaction for each one.

Other affected stocksiOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.

What the market may be missingiSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.

What else lands that dayiOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

Main risksiWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.

Other factorsiAnything else worth knowing that the sections above do not cover.

Trend over 6 to 12 monthsiWhich way the share price has been heading over the past year, and how far it has travelled.

Recent price actioniWhat the shares have done over the last few weeks and sessions, and on what kind of volume.

Market structureiThe shape of the chart. Rising highs and rising lows mean an uptrend, falling ones mean a downtrend, and neither means the price is stuck in a range.

Support and resistance zonesiPrice areas where buyers have stepped in before, and price areas where sellers have. They often slow the price down when it gets there again.

50-day and 200-day moving averagesiThe average closing price over the last 50 days and the last 200 days. Where the price sits against them shows whether the recent trend is strong or fading.

Relative strengthiHow this stock has performed against the wider market and against its own sector over the same period.

Volume trendiHow many shares are changing hands lately compared with normal. Heavy volume behind a move means more traders agree with it.

VolatilityiHow much the share price swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.

Long-Term Technical ViewiThe wider chart over years. The big trend, the major price levels and how much the stock swings.

Technical biasiWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.

What would invalidate this biasiThe price level or chart change that would prove the technical read wrong.

Technical data timestampiWhen the chart figures above were taken. Markets keep moving, so check live charts before you trade.

Stock OverviewiThe basic numbers. Price, size of the company, sector, the past year of highs and lows, trading volume and the next earnings date.

What the company doesiThe business in plain words. What it sells, who buys it, and how the money reaches the company.

Revenue BreakdowniWhere the money comes from, split by product, by part of the business and by country.

Company GrowthiHow sales, profit, earnings per share and spare cash have changed over the last few years.

Earnings PerformanceiThe latest results, whether they beat or missed what the market expected, and what the company says comes next.

Financial HealthiCash, debt, cash flow and profit margins, and whether the company keeps issuing new shares. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.

ValuationiWhat you pay today for what the company earns, next to its rivals and its own past. Rated Cheap, Fair or Expensive.

ShareholdersiWho owns the company. Big funds, company insiders, and whether ownership sits with only a few holders.

Insider ActivityiWhether the people running the company have been buying or selling their own shares lately.

Dividends and BuybacksiCash paid out to shareholders, whether that payment looks safe, and whether the company is buying back its own shares.

Competitive PositioniWho the company competes with, how much of the market it holds, and what it has that rivals do not.

Future OutlookiWhat sales and profit are expected to do next, and what management has promised.

Other Upcoming Company CatalystsiOther events ahead that could move the share price, such as results, launches or approvals, apart from the catalyst this report is built on.

Long-Term Company RisksiWhat could weaken the business over the coming years, rather than around this one event.

Traderavel VerdictiOur straight answer on the company after everything above, not on the trade. Quality, growth, price, risk and the long-term view.

Expected price move and durationHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Company overviewHow good the company itself is, setting this event aside. Useful if you plan to hold the shares rather than trade the news.

Upcoming catalystThe event that could move the share price.

Main stock affectedThe company the event affects most directly.

Current priceWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.

Expected stock reactionWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Action before the eventWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Why the stock is affectedThe link between the event and this company.

Catalyst confidenceHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

Stock-reaction confidenceHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

When the market will reactThe moment the price is likely to move, such as at the announcement or at the next market open.

Effect on the businessWhat the event changes for the company itself, such as its sales, costs or profit.

Market expectations and forecastWhat investors already expect from this event, and the numbers being forecast.

How much is already priced inHow much of the expected outcome the share price already reflects before the event happens.

Expected price move and durationHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Result needed for a big moveWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.

Possible outcomesThe main ways the event could turn out, with the expected stock reaction for each one.

Other affected stocksOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.

What the market may be missingSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.

What else lands that dayOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

Main risksWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.

Other factorsAnything else worth knowing that the sections above do not cover.

Trend over 6 to 12 monthsWhich way the share price has been heading over the past year, and how far it has travelled.

Recent price actionWhat the shares have done over the last few weeks and sessions, and on what kind of volume.

Market structureThe shape of the chart. Rising highs and rising lows mean an uptrend, falling ones mean a downtrend, and neither means the price is stuck in a range.

Support and resistance zonesPrice areas where buyers have stepped in before, and price areas where sellers have. They often slow the price down when it gets there again.

50-day and 200-day moving averagesThe average closing price over the last 50 days and the last 200 days. Where the price sits against them shows whether the recent trend is strong or fading.

Relative strengthHow this stock has performed against the wider market and against its own sector over the same period.

Volume trendHow many shares are changing hands lately compared with normal. Heavy volume behind a move means more traders agree with it.

VolatilityHow much the share price swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.

Long-Term Technical ViewThe wider chart over years. The big trend, the major price levels and how much the stock swings.

Technical biasWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.

What would invalidate this biasThe price level or chart change that would prove the technical read wrong.

Technical data timestampWhen the chart figures above were taken. Markets keep moving, so check live charts before you trade.

Stock OverviewThe basic numbers. Price, size of the company, sector, the past year of highs and lows, trading volume and the next earnings date.

What the company doesThe business in plain words. What it sells, who buys it, and how the money reaches the company.

Revenue BreakdownWhere the money comes from, split by product, by part of the business and by country.

Company GrowthHow sales, profit, earnings per share and spare cash have changed over the last few years.

Earnings PerformanceThe latest results, whether they beat or missed what the market expected, and what the company says comes next.

Financial HealthCash, debt, cash flow and profit margins, and whether the company keeps issuing new shares. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.

ValuationWhat you pay today for what the company earns, next to its rivals and its own past. Rated Cheap, Fair or Expensive.

ShareholdersWho owns the company. Big funds, company insiders, and whether ownership sits with only a few holders.

Insider ActivityWhether the people running the company have been buying or selling their own shares lately.

Dividends and BuybacksCash paid out to shareholders, whether that payment looks safe, and whether the company is buying back its own shares.

Competitive PositionWho the company competes with, how much of the market it holds, and what it has that rivals do not.

Future OutlookWhat sales and profit are expected to do next, and what management has promised.

Other Upcoming Company CatalystsOther events ahead that could move the share price, such as results, launches or approvals, apart from the catalyst this report is built on.

Long-Term Company RisksWhat could weaken the business over the coming years, rather than around this one event.

Traderavel VerdictOur straight answer on the company after everything above, not on the trade. Quality, growth, price, risk and the long-term view.