Delta reports third-quarter results with jet fuel near $4.61 a gallon against the $3.15 its guidance assumed, and its own refinery on the other side of the trade

Upcoming catalystiThe event that could move the share price.

Delta Air Lines will report its September quarter 2026 results on Friday 9 October 2026 and hold its conference call at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, which is 14:00 UTC. Delta has confirmed the date and the call time. It usually publishes the release before the market opens, but the release hour itself has not been announced. It is the first major US airline to report for the quarter.

Main stock affectediThe company the event affects most directly.

Delta Air Lines, Inc., NYSE ticker DAL.

Current priceiWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.

$84.94 as of 25 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC.

Expected stock reactioniWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Positive. The bar has already been lowered for the fuel shock, and Delta is the one US airline that owns a refinery earning the same fuel margin that is inflating its fuel bill.

Action before the eventiWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Watch. The case for a positive reaction is real but rests on two numbers Delta has not yet published, the refinery contribution and the fourth-quarter outlook. Anyone taking a position should size it for a stock whose options price a move of about five percent on the day, in a market where one headline on Iran can move jet fuel by several percent.

Why the stock is affectediThe link between the event and this company.

Fuel is Delta's second-largest cost after labour. When Delta set its third-quarter guidance on 10 July it assumed an all-in fuel price of about $3.15 a gallon, including a five-cent benefit from its refinery, taken from the forward curve of 2 July. US jet fuel averaged $193.65 a barrel in the week to 18 September according to IATA's fuel monitor, which is about $4.61 a gallon. Every ten cents a gallon on roughly 1.12 billion gallons a quarter is about $112 million of cost. The report shows how much of that gap fares and the refinery have closed, and the fourth-quarter guidance shows how much is left.

Catalyst confidenceiHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

The event is confirmed and has 99% confidence of occurring on the stated date. My expected business outcome is third-quarter earnings at or slightly above the reduced consensus of $1.96, with a larger refinery contribution than the five cents Delta assumed, and a full-year outlook cut toward $6.

Stock-reaction confidenceiHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

55%. The consensus has already fallen 12% in sixty days and sits below the bottom of Delta's own range, which lowers the bar. Against that, the last four reports split two up and two down, and a fourth-quarter guide set at today's fuel curve could still disappoint.

When the market will reactiThe moment the price is likely to move, such as at the announcement or at the next market open.

The first move comes when the release lands before the open, in pre-market trading. The 14:00 UTC call, half an hour into the regular session, is where management will explain the refinery contribution, the pace at which fares are catching up with fuel and the fourth-quarter assumptions, and that is usually where the day's direction is settled. The cleanest reading is the 9 October close.

Effect on the businessiWhat the event changes for the company itself, such as its sales, costs or profit.

High for one quarter and medium for the year. The fuel gap is large enough to swing the quarter: at about $112 million for every ten cents a gallon, a price $1.00 a gallon above the guidance assumption would add roughly $1.1 billion of cost before fares and the refinery offset it. That is about $1.70 a share before tax on about 658 million shares, computed here from Delta's June quarter fuel bill of $4.4 billion at $3.93 a gallon. Against that, Delta said in July it had recovered about 60% of the year's fuel increase through fares and expected more in the third quarter, and its refinery earns more as the fuel margin widens.

Market expectations and forecastiWhat investors already expect from this event, and the numbers being forecast.

Delta's guidance for the quarter is revenue growth in the mid-teens, an operating margin of 11% to 13% and adjusted earnings of $2.00 to $2.50 a share. The Yahoo consensus from 19 analysts is $1.96, with estimates from $1.66 to $2.40, down from $2.02 a week ago, $2.11 a month ago and $2.23 two months ago. Revenue consensus is $18.96 billion. The full year is where the market has already moved furthest. Delta affirmed adjusted earnings of $6.50 to $7.50 a share in July. The consensus from 23 analysts is $6.09, below the bottom of that range, and the fourth-quarter consensus from 18 analysts is $1.94, down from $2.22 two months ago. The market expects a guidance cut and has written one in. My forecast is third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.95 to $2.25, with a refinery benefit of well over five cents a gallon, and a fourth-quarter outlook of $1.60 to $2.00 with the full year cut to around $6.00 to $6.40. These are my estimates, not company guidance.

How much is already priced iniHow much of the expected outcome the share price already reflects before the event happens.

Medium. The estimate cuts are visible and large, and the stock is 11.2% below its 52-week high of $95.68, which it set on 2 July, the same day the fuel curve behind the guidance was struck. But the shares are up 2.24% over the last month while the fuel price rose, because diplomacy over the Strait of Hormuz has repeatedly pulled oil back. The stock is trading the oil headlines more than the estimate cuts.

What else lands that dayiOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

Delta reports on a Friday with no other large company results scheduled ahead of it in the airline group. The larger competing force is the oil market: OPEC+ meets on 4 October, five days earlier, and US and Iranian talks over the Strait of Hormuz can move jet fuel on any day. On the calendar the day is clear.

Expected price move and durationiHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Options-Implied Move At about 18:05 UTC on 28 September, with the shares near $84, the at-the-money straddle for the 9 October expiry, which includes the report, was about $6.68, or 7.9% of the price. That covers nine sessions. Using the 2 October expiry's implied volatility of about 44.5% for the eight ordinary sessions and the 9 October expiry's 55% for the whole period, the part attributable to the report day is about ±5.4%, by my calculation. The sign describes size, not direction. Historical Event Analysis June quarter results on 10 July 2026 produced a 1.81% close-to-close loss. Earnings of $1.56 beat the $1.48 expected and Delta reinstated its full-year range, but the stock had just made its high and third-quarter guidance straddled the consensus. March quarter results on 8 April 2026 produced a 3.75% gain, after the shares opened 11.25% higher and gave back most of it during the session. December quarter results on 13 January 2026 produced a 2.39% loss. September quarter 2025 results on 9 October 2025 produced a 4.29% gain, after an 8.37% higher open. Historical Average Move The average absolute move across those four sessions is 4.29% plus 2.39% plus 3.75% plus 1.81%, divided by four, or ±3.06%. The options market prices more than that, which fits a quarter where the fuel assumption was so far from the outcome. Our Expected Move +3% to +7% if third-quarter earnings land at or above $2.00 with a refinery benefit well above guidance and a fourth-quarter outlook near the $1.94 consensus. -4% to -8% if the fourth-quarter outlook is set well below $1.94 or the full year is cut below $6.00. A result close to consensus with a cautious outlook should trade between -2% and +2%. Impact Strength High. Delta is one of the largest US airlines, reports first, and sets the tone for how the market reads fuel recapture across United, American, Southwest and Alaska the following weeks. Estimated Duration One to three trading days for the earnings number. A change in how the market values the refinery, or a fourth-quarter outlook that shows fares fully catching up with fuel, would last longer because it changes the earnings path rather than one quarter.

Result needed for a big moveiWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.

A gain above 7% needs third-quarter earnings of $2.20 or more, a refinery benefit Delta quantifies at several hundred million dollars for the quarter, and fourth-quarter guidance with a midpoint of $2.00 or higher. A fall beyond 8% needs third-quarter earnings below $1.80 or fourth-quarter guidance centred at $1.50 or lower, which would say fares have stopped catching up. These thresholds are my estimates, not company guidance.

Possible outcomesiThe main ways the event could turn out, with the expected stock reaction for each one.

Positive outcome, 45% probability. Third-quarter earnings beat the reduced consensus, the refinery benefit is large, and the fourth-quarter outlook sits near consensus. Expected reaction: up 3% to 7%. Middle outcome, 30% probability. Earnings land near $1.96, the full year is cut to around consensus and the fourth quarter is guided a little below it. Expected reaction: down 2% to up 2%. Negative outcome, 25% probability. Fares fall behind fuel, the fourth-quarter guide is well below consensus and the full year is cut below $6. Expected reaction: down 4% to 8%.

Other affected stocksiOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.

United Airlines (UAL) and American Airlines (AAL) move on what Delta says about fare recapture and corporate demand, and American has already cut its 2026 outlook for fuel. Southwest Airlines (LUV) and Alaska Air (ALK) react to the domestic fare commentary. The US Global Jets fund (JETS) moves with the group.

What the market may be missingiSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.

The fuel number that is hurting every US airline is partly the number that Delta's refinery is paid, and on 2 October somebody started trying to take it away. IATA put the crack spread, the refining margin inside the jet fuel price, at $67.14 a barrel in the week to 18 September. That is the part of the fuel bill that sits above the cost of crude, and it is the margin a refinery earns. Delta owns one. Its Monroe Energy subsidiary runs the Trainer refinery near Philadelphia, rated at about 185,000 barrels a day. As a rough scale, every $10 a barrel of refining margin on that capacity across a 92-day quarter is about $170 million, computed here. Delta guided a refinery benefit of just five cents a gallon for the quarter, about $56 million on its fuel volume, and it reported eleven cents in the June quarter with margins well below today's. So the fuel shock is not symmetric across the group. United and American pay the whole of the crack spread. Delta pays it and earns part of it back. The G7 release of 2 October now cuts both of those at once: US diesel futures fell 5.6% on the announcement and European diesel's premium over crude fell to about $69 a barrel from $76.77, which lowers the fuel bill the fourth-quarter guide has to carry and lowers the margin Monroe collects in the same move. For Delta alone among the majors, the best news of the quarter is also the worst. The second thing is the date on the 52-week high. Delta made it on 2 July, the same day its fuel assumption was set. Everything the market has learned about fuel since then is in a stock that is only 11% lower, while the estimates for the quarter are 12% lower than two months ago. The market is closer to the cut than the headline fuel price suggests.

Main risksiWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.

Overall event risk is High. Jet fuel is still elevated into the fourth quarter, and a fourth-quarter guide set at the curve as it stood could be worse than consensus even if the third quarter beats. The refinery benefit is a margin that can collapse as quickly as it arrived, and it started doing so on 2 October: the G7 agreed to sell up to 100 million barrels of emergency crude and diesel through the International Energy Agency, diesel first, and US diesel futures fell 5.6% on the news. Pulling the other way, China suspended its October refined fuel exports on 1 October, taking roughly 350,000 barrels a day of diesel and at least 2 million tonnes of jet fuel out of the market, so the product squeeze has two large forces working against each other inside the same fortnight. A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would do the same thing to the crack spread, faster. Capacity cuts to protect margins can hurt revenue growth, and the domestic main cabin is still the most price-sensitive part of the business.

Other factorsiAnything else worth knowing that the sections above do not cover.

The shares have risen 8.6% from their 18 September close of $79.62 in six sessions on hopes of a Hormuz settlement, and the options market prices more than the recent history. The stock is carrying an oil view into the report, and that view can move before 9 October.

Trend over 6 to 12 monthsiWhich way the share price has been heading over the past year, and how far it has travelled.

Up. DAL rose 27.04% over six months and 47.18% over twelve through 25 September. The 52-week range runs from $55.03 on 4 November 2025 to $95.68 on 2 July 2026, and the price is 73.6% of the way up it.

Recent price actioniWhat the shares have done over the last few weeks and sessions, and on what kind of volume.

Down 8.24% over three months and up 2.24% over one. The shares bottomed near $77 in mid-September, with a close of $77.87 on 16 September, then rose to $84.94 by 25 September on Hormuz diplomacy.

Market structureiThe shape of the chart. Rising highs and rising lows mean an uptrend, falling ones mean a downtrend, and neither means the price is stuck in a range.

A higher low. The July peak at $95.68 led to a pullback that held above the 200-day average, and September's rebound has put the price back on the 50-day. A bull market correction rather than a new downtrend.

Support and resistance zonesiPrice areas where buyers have stepped in before, and price areas where sellers have. They often slow the price down when it gets there again.

First support is $77 to $79, the mid-September lows. Major support is the 200-day average at $75.44. First resistance is $88 to $90, the August trading area, and major resistance is the $95.68 high.

50-day and 200-day moving averagesiThe average closing price over the last 50 days and the last 200 days. Where the price sits against them shows whether the recent trend is strong or fading.

The 50-day average is $84.05 and the price is 1.06% above it. The 200-day average is $75.44 and the price is 12.59% above it. The 50-day is $8.61 above the 200-day, a bullish arrangement.

Relative strengthiHow this stock has performed against the wider market and against its own sector over the same period.

DAL rose 47.18% over twelve months against 14.45% for the US Global Jets fund, a lead of 32.73 percentage points. Over three months it lost 8.24% against 12.92% for the fund, a lead of 4.68 points, and over one month it gained 2.24% against a 2.62% loss. Delta has led its industry on every window measured.

Volume trendiHow many shares are changing hands lately compared with normal. Heavy volume behind a move means more traders agree with it.

Average volume over 20 sessions is 6.94 million shares against 5.86 million over 50. The heaviest session in September was 18 September at 24.9 million, the quarterly options and index expiry day, rather than a news day.

VolatilityiHow much the share price swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.

The 14-day average true range is $2.40, or 2.82% of the price. Annualised realised volatility is 27.68% over 14 sessions against 32.07% over 50. The options market prices a report-day move of about twice an ordinary day.

Long-Term Technical ViewiThe wider chart over years. The big trend, the major price levels and how much the stock swings.

The advance from the November 2025 low is intact above the 200-day average. The July high needs to be recovered for a new leg higher, and a close below the 200-day would say the fuel shock has finally broken the trend.

Technical biasiWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.

Bullish. Price above both averages, the 50-day above the 200-day, a higher low in September and leadership over the airline group on every window.

What would invalidate this biasiThe price level or chart change that would prove the technical read wrong.

A close below $77 would break the September low and turn the bias to Neutral. A close below the 200-day average at $75.44 would make it Bearish.

Technical data timestampiWhen the chart figures above were taken. Markets keep moving, so check live charts before you trade.

Every price, return, average, range and volume figure in this group is computed from daily bars through the regular US session that ended at 20:00 UTC on 25 September 2026. Markets move after this is written. Check live charts before trading.

Stock OverviewiThe basic numbers. Price, size of the company, sector, the past year of highs and lows, trading volume and the next earnings date.

DAL closed at $84.94 at 20:00 UTC on 25 September 2026. With about 658 million shares outstanding, market value is roughly $55.9 billion. The 52-week range is $55.03 to $95.68 and average 20-day volume is 6.94 million shares. The next earnings release is 9 October 2026.

What the company doesiThe business in plain words. What it sells, who buys it, and how the money reaches the company.

Delta flies passengers and cargo across a network built around hubs in Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Salt Lake City, New York, Boston, Los Angeles and Seattle. It sells premium cabins, main cabin and basic economy seats, earns a large and growing payment from American Express for SkyMiles co-branded cards, runs an aircraft maintenance business for other airlines, and owns the Trainer oil refinery through its Monroe Energy subsidiary.

Revenue BreakdowniWhere the money comes from, split by product, by part of the business and by country.

2025 operating revenue was $63.4 billion, or $58.3 billion adjusted, the difference being chiefly refinery sales to third parties. American Express remuneration was $8.2 billion, up 11%. In the June quarter of 2026 Delta said revenue from premium cabins, loyalty, cargo and maintenance made up 61% of total revenue, two points more than a year earlier, with premium revenue up 17%, loyalty up 19%, cargo up 39% and maintenance up 32%.

Company GrowthiHow sales, profit, earnings per share and spare cash have changed over the last few years.

Adjusted revenue grew 13.9% in the June quarter of 2026 on capacity growth of about 1%, with unit revenue up 12.4%, which is fares rising to meet fuel. 2025 adjusted earnings were $5.82 a share, and Delta's 2026 range of $6.50 to $7.50 was set for 20% growth at the midpoint before the fuel shock. Growth is Medium: strong pricing, very little capacity growth and a fuel bill that has taken most of the gain.

Earnings PerformanceiThe latest results, whether they beat or missed what the market expected, and what the company says comes next.

June quarter adjusted earnings were $1.56 a share against about $1.48 expected, on adjusted revenue of $17.7 billion and an adjusted operating margin of 8.8%. Adjusted fuel expense was $4.4 billion, up 77%, at $3.93 a gallon. Non-fuel unit cost rose 6.8%. Full-year 2025 adjusted earnings were $5.82 a share, with $1.55 in the December quarter.

Financial HealthiCash, debt, cash flow and profit margins, and whether the company keeps issuing new shares. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.

At the end of June, Delta had $7.7 billion of liquidity, $13.95 billion of debt and finance leases, and adjusted net debt of $13.59 billion, down $709 million since the end of 2025. Leverage was 2.4 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and rent at the end of 2025, with a target near 2 times. Free cash flow was $4.6 billion in 2025 and $209 million in the June quarter, against full-year guidance of $3 billion to $4 billion. Financial health is Average: investment grade and improving, but a fuel shock this size tests any airline balance sheet.

ValuationiWhat you pay today for what the company earns, next to its rivals and its own past. Rated Cheap, Fair or Expensive.

On trailing adjusted earnings of about $6.03 a share the price-to-earnings ratio is about 14. On the 2026 consensus of $6.09 it is about 14, and on the 2027 consensus of $8.53 about 10. The valuation is Fair: cheap on 2027 if fuel normalises, full if 2026's squeeze becomes the new level.

ShareholdersiWho owns the company. Big funds, company insiders, and whether ownership sits with only a few holders.

Delta's 2026 proxy statement listed BlackRock as the only holder above 5%, with 43.05 million shares or 6.6% as of 17 April 2026. Vanguard was removed from the table after an internal reorganisation of how it reports ownership. Institutions hold about 81% of the shares according to Yahoo data. Ownership is broad and not concentrated in any single holder.

Insider ActivityiWhether the people running the company have been buying or selling their own shares lately.

Selling. Chief executive Ed Bastian exercised 206,510 options at $49.33 on 4 August 2026 and sold the shares at a weighted average of about $92.80, for about $19.2 million. That is an exercise-and-sale of expiring compensation, a weaker signal than an open-market sale, and there has been no recent open-market buying by directors or executives to set against it.

Dividends and BuybacksiCash paid out to shareholders, whether that payment looks safe, and whether the company is buying back its own shares.

Delta raised its quarterly dividend by 15% from the third quarter of 2026, to an annual rate of about $0.86 a share, a yield of about 1%. Its 2026 releases emphasise debt reduction and the dividend rather than share repurchases.

Competitive PositioniWho the company competes with, how much of the market it holds, and what it has that rivals do not.

Delta has a premium and loyalty franchise that earned $8.2 billion from American Express alone in 2025, a reliability record it uses to charge more, and fortress hubs in Atlanta and Minneapolis. United competes most directly for premium and long-haul traffic. The refinery is unique in the group, and it turns part of the fuel margin that hurts competitors into income.

Future OutlookiWhat sales and profit are expected to do next, and what management has promised.

Delta expects fares to recover the rest of the fuel increase and has cut growth plans to protect margins. The CFO said in July the company kept its full-year outlook because it was recapturing fuel costs faster than expected. My outlook is Positive for the business over two to three years, because the premium, loyalty and refinery mix gives it more ways to earn through a fuel shock than any US rival.

Other Upcoming Company CatalystsiOther events ahead that could move the share price, such as results, launches or approvals, apart from the catalyst this report is built on.

United Airlines and American Airlines report later in October, with dates to be confirmed, and their commentary will test Delta's recapture claims. The OPEC+ meeting on 4 October and any agreement on the Strait of Hormuz will move jet fuel. December quarter results are expected in January 2027, with the date not yet announced, and will carry 2027 guidance.

Long-Term Company RisksiWhat could weaken the business over the coming years, rather than around this one event.

Fuel remains the largest unhedgeable swing in the business. Labour costs rise with every contract cycle. Airline demand falls sharply in a recession, and premium travel is not immune. Aircraft and engine delivery delays limit growth. The refinery adds commodity risk of its own and depends on refining margins that can reverse. Regulation of fees and consumer protection can compress ancillary revenue.

Traderavel VerdictiOur straight answer on the company after everything above, not on the trade. Quality, growth, price, risk and the long-term view.

Delta is one of the best-run large US airlines, with strong business quality, medium growth, average financial health, a fair valuation and high long-term company risk, because airlines are exposed to fuel, labour and the economic cycle all at once. Its premium and loyalty mix and its refinery make it more resilient than its rivals through a fuel shock like this one. It suits investors who want airline exposure through the strongest operator and can live with large swings. It does not suit income investors or anyone who needs steady earnings.