Broadcom fiscal third-quarter results and AI revenue outlook
- StockThe company this write-up is about, with its ticker symbol.
- AVGO, Broadcom Inc.
- PriceWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and the exact minute that price was struck.
- $368.45
- Event Date And TimeWhen the event is expected. Shown in your own time zone, or in UTC if you switch the clock at the top of the page. If the exact hour is not confirmed, you only see the date.
- 21:00 2/September/2026
- What else lands that dayOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.
- CrowdedThe print gets a clean evening, but the August jobs report lands two sessions later and takes over the follow-through this trade needs.
- Expected Stock ReactionWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.
- Positive
- ActionWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.
- Buy
- Stock-reaction confidenceHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.
- 58/100
Expected price move and durationHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.
- Our expected moveOur own estimate of the move, after weighing the market's estimate, the past moves and the situation now.
- 6% to 10% gain lasting one to five sessions.
- ImpactHow big we think that move is for this stock. Rated Low, Medium or High.
- High
- Other affected StocksOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.
- None
Upcoming catalystThe event that could move the share price.
Broadcom reports fiscal third-quarter 2026 results after the market closes on September 2, 2026. Management’s conference call starts at 21:00 UTC.
Main stock affectedThe company the event affects most directly.
Broadcom Inc., Nasdaq ticker AVGO.
Current price and timeWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.
$368.45 at the August 21, 2026 regular-session close, 20:00 UTC. The stock rose 1.2% that day.
Expected stock reactionWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.
Positive. My base case is a 6% to 10% rise if AI semiconductor revenue beats the $16.0 billion company forecast and the next-quarter outlook confirms continued growth.
Action before the eventWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.
Buy a small share position. Avoid short-dated calls because options already price a large move. Use limited size. A simple example is investing one-quarter to one-half of your normal position before results, then adding only after guidance confirms the AI growth story.
Why the stock is affectedThe link between the event and this company.
Broadcom’s valuation now depends heavily on custom AI accelerators and networking chips. Management forecast fiscal third-quarter revenue of about $29.4 billion, including $16.0 billion of AI semiconductor revenue. If those numbers rise, investors can raise future revenue and profit estimates. If they miss, the market may question whether hyperscaler AI spending is slowing.
Catalyst confidenceHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.
Likely outcome: Broadcom meets or modestly exceeds its $29.4 billion revenue forecast, with AI semiconductor revenue above $16.0 billion. Confidence: 68%. The forecast is supported by second-quarter AI revenue of $10.8 billion, up 143% from the prior year, and management’s expectation for more than 200% growth in the third quarter.
Stock-reaction confidenceHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.
Confidence: 58% that AVGO rises. Strong results alone may not be enough. The stock fell after the previous report because expectations exceeded published guidance. The next-quarter outlook will probably decide the direction.
When the market will reactThe moment the price is likely to move, such as at the announcement or at the next market open.
The first move can begin after the September 2 market close when the earnings release appears. The more reliable move should develop during the 21:00 UTC call and the September 3 regular session. The main reaction window is one to five trading days. Guidance changes can influence the stock for several weeks.
Effect on the businessWhat the event changes for the company itself, such as its sales, costs or profit.
A result near guidance would mean quarterly revenue growth of about 84% from the prior year. It would also make AI semiconductors more than half of total revenue. Calculation: $16.0 billion of AI revenue divided by $29.4 billion of total revenue equals 54.4%. Higher AI sales should increase absolute operating profit and free cash flow. The risk is that rapid growth in custom silicon creates a less favorable product mix than high-margin infrastructure software.
Market expectations and forecastWhat investors already expect from this event, and the numbers being forecast.
Published company targets: Revenue: approximately $29.4 billion. AI semiconductor revenue: $16.0 billion. Non-GAAP operating income: approximately 67% of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA: approximately 68% of revenue. My forecast assumption: Revenue: $29.8 billion to $30.2 billion. AI semiconductor revenue: $16.3 billion to $16.8 billion. The trading test is the next-quarter outlook. A strong historical quarter followed by cautious guidance could still produce a falling share price. Recent price action and priced-in level Priced-in level: Medium. AVGO closed 25.6% below its $495.00 52-week high. Calculation: $368.45 divided by $495.00, minus one, equals negative 25.6%. It also fell 13.9% from its August 7 close of $427.76. Calculation: $368.45 divided by $427.76, minus one, equals negative 13.9%. Selling volume reached 35.1 million shares on August 19, compared with recent average daily volume near 21.3 million. That was about 64% above average. This shows that part of the high-expectation premium has already left the stock.
Expected price move and durationHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.
Impact: High. Options were pricing an earnings move of roughly 9.6% to 11.6% around the event. At $368.45, a 9.6% move equals about $35.37. Calculation: $368.45 multiplied by 0.096 equals $35.37. That creates an approximate one-event range of $333.08 to $403.82. Options pricing can change before September 2. My directional base case is a 6% to 10% gain lasting one to five sessions. A major guidance change could last several weeks.
Result needed for a big moveWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.
For an upside move above 10%, Broadcom likely needs all three: Revenue above $30.0 billion. AI semiconductor revenue of at least $16.5 billion. A next-quarter outlook showing that AI revenue growth remains strong, with no material margin deterioration. A simple earnings beat without strong forward guidance is unlikely to be enough.
Possible outcomesThe main ways the event could turn out, with the expected stock reaction for each one.
Positive scenario: Revenue reaches at least $30.0 billion, AI revenue exceeds $16.5 billion, and guidance rises. Expected reaction: up 10% to 16%. Neutral scenario: Revenue lands between $29.2 billion and $30.0 billion, AI revenue is near $16.0 billion, and guidance is steady. Expected reaction: down 3% to up 5%. Negative scenario: Revenue misses $29.2 billion, AI revenue falls below $16.0 billion, or management signals customer delays. Expected reaction: down 10% to 18%.
Other affected stocksOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.
TSM could move because it manufactures advanced chips for major semiconductor designers. MRVL could react as a custom-silicon and data-center networking competitor. NVDA and AMD could move in sympathy because Broadcom’s results provide evidence about AI infrastructure spending. ANET could react to comments about data-center networking demand.
What the market may be missingSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.
The stock price has fallen much faster than Broadcom’s published AI revenue outlook. The shares are 25.6% below their high, while management’s third-quarter AI forecast implies an increase from $10.8 billion to $16.0 billion in one quarter. Calculation: $16.0 billion divided by $10.8 billion, minus one, equals 48.1% sequential growth. The overlooked opportunity is that even modest upside to the AI forecast could restore confidence after the recent selloff. The overlooked risk is concentration. A delay from one large customer can change quarterly custom-chip revenue and guidance quickly.
What else lands that dayOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.
2 September 2026 itself is light. The ADP national employment report is at 12:15 UTC, a labour market tightness index at 13:00 UTC and manufacturing shipments and orders at 14:00 UTC, and none of those is a release the index trades hard. Broadcom reports after the close at 21:00 UTC, so the first reaction is in after hours and the first full session is 3 September, which brings initial jobless claims, the trade balance and the ISM non-manufacturing survey. The week then ends with the August employment situation report at 12:30 UTC on 4 September, which is the single largest scheduled US release of the month. Net effect: the print itself gets a clean evening, and the window in which the market decides what the AI revenue outlook is worth runs straight into the jobs report. What to expect on the day. Expect the after-hours move on 2 September and the opening hours of 3 September to be an honest read on the quarter. Expect Friday to be about something else entirely. If your thesis needs several sessions of follow-through, understand that the second of them is a jobs report that can reset rate expectations and take every high-multiple semiconductor name with it, up or down, whatever Broadcom guided to.
Main risksWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.
Broadcom reports strong numbers but gives guidance below investor expectations. AI customers delay accelerator deployments or networking purchases. Custom-chip growth reduces the overall margin mix. VMware-related software growth slows. A broad semiconductor selloff overwhelms company-specific results. Options remain expensive, causing call buyers to lose money even if the shares rise modestly.
Other factorsAnything else worth knowing that the sections above do not cover.
Watch the stock’s reaction to results, not only the headline numbers. If AVGO initially rises but falls below the pre-earnings price during the conference call, the market is rejecting the guidance. For risk control, shares are preferable to short-dated options. Do not use a full position before a binary event. The prioritized trade is a small AVGO share position before September 2, with additional buying only if management raises the forward AI outlook.
For information only · not financial advice.