Costco reports fiscal fourth quarter results after a year of beating and still falling

Upcoming catalystiThe event that could move the share price.

Costco reports fiscal fourth quarter 2026 results after the US market closes on 24 September 2026, with the conference call the same afternoon. The date is scheduled and widely confirmed. The company does not publish the exact release minute in advance, so treat the day as settled and the hour as approximate.

Main stock affectediThe company the event affects most directly.

Costco Wholesale Corporation, Nasdaq ticker COST.

Current priceiWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.

$893.74 as of 16 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC, the regular-session close.

Expected stock reactioniWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Mixed. Positive if revenue clears $94.85 billion with adjusted earnings above $6.55 and the worldwide renewal rate holds at 89.7% or better. Negative if revenue misses $94 billion or renewal slips again, because at 40.94 times forward earnings a routine beat has not been enough for a year.

Action before the eventiWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Watch. This stock has beaten expectations repeatedly and fallen anyway, so the trade here is not the beat. It is whether the de-rating has run far enough that a beat finally gets paid. You can read the renewal rate and the comparable sales in the release and still act on 25 September with the number in front of you. Implied moves on this event have historically been only about 2.6% to 3.4%, which is a small payoff for taking the result and the multiple at once.

Why the stock is affectediThe link between the event and this company.

Costco sells groceries at almost no profit and makes its money on the annual fee members pay to walk in the door. That fee income is close to pure margin, which is why a company keeping 3.01% of $293.59 billion of trailing revenue is still worth $396.35 billion. The number that matters in this release is therefore not the profit line. It is the renewal rate, because renewal is what turns this quarter's fee into next year's fee, and it has been drifting: 89.7% worldwide at the last report. The result also lands on a share price that has gone backwards for a year while the earnings went forwards, and that gap is the whole argument.

Catalyst confidenceiHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

The event itself is as close to certain as a scheduled corporate release gets. On the outcome, the likely result is another beat. Costco has beaten on earnings in five consecutive quarters, and it reports its sales monthly on the way through, which leaves the release very little to surprise anyone with. Confidence that the event happens on the date given: 98%.

Stock-reaction confidenceiHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

Low, and deliberately so. The business outcome is close to predictable and the share price reaction to it has not been. The stock fell after three of its last four reports, and the one time it rose, it had already fallen 2.40% into the print. A card claiming to know the direction here would be claiming to know something the last four quarters say nobody knows. Confidence in the reaction: 48%.

When the market will reactiThe moment the price is likely to move, such as at the announcement or at the next market open.

The results come out after the US market closes on 24 September 2026. The first move shows up in thin after-hours trading that evening, and the first properly liquid reaction is the regular session on 25 September. The conference call follows the release the same afternoon, and on this stock the call has historically mattered less than the release, because the release already contains the two numbers that decide it.

Effect on the businessiWhat the event changes for the company itself, such as its sales, costs or profit.

Costco's model has two halves and they behave nothing alike. Merchandise is enormous and barely profitable: $293.59 billion of trailing revenue produced $8.84 billion of net income, a margin of 3.01%. Membership is small and almost entirely profit, and it is what the valuation is built on. The third quarter, released after the close on 28 May 2026, showed both halves working. Total revenue was $70.53 billion, net sales rose 11.6% to $69.15 billion, net income was $2.19 billion and diluted earnings per share were $4.93 against $4.28 a year earlier. Comparable sales including fuel rose 9.4% domestically, and 6.6% once currency and fuel are stripped out. Digitally enabled sales rose 21.5%, with online and app visits up 37%. The membership base grew 4.1%. One number in that list went the wrong way. The worldwide renewal rate was 89.7%. That is the figure to read first on 24 September, because a renewal rate is a forecast of fee income and fee income is the profit.

Market expectations and forecastiWhat investors already expect from this event, and the numbers being forecast.

Analysts expect adjusted earnings per share of about $6.51 to $6.55 on revenue of about $94.85 billion. That is roughly 11% earnings growth on the $5.87 earned in the same quarter last year, and about 10% revenue growth on $86.16 billion. My forecast is that the earnings line lands at or slightly above that range. Costco reports its sales monthly, so by the time this release arrives most of the top line is already public, and the company has beaten on earnings for five quarters running. In trading terms the earnings number is close to settled before it is printed, which is exactly why it has stopped moving the stock. Read the renewal rate and the adjusted comparable sales figure first, and the earnings per share second.

How much is already priced iniHow much of the expected outcome the share price already reflects before the event happens.

High on the result, and that is the problem. The evidence is in the price rather than in anything management has said. Over the last twelve months the shares fell 6.91% while the S and P 500 tracking fund rose 14.09%, a gap of 21.00 percentage points. Over the same twelve months earnings per share went up, from $18.21 for fiscal 2025 to $19.88 on a trailing basis. A rising earnings line and a falling share price is one thing only: the market paying less for each dollar of the same profit. The trailing multiple is 44.95 and the forward multiple is 40.94, against a PEG of 3.62. What is not priced in is the de-rating stopping. The shares sit 19.7% of the way up their own 52-week range, 18.49% below the $1,096.50 high struck on 19 May 2026 and 5.89% above the $844.06 low of 16 December 2025. A market that had finished repricing this company would not be making lower lows into a quarter it expects to be good.

Expected price move and durationiHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Options-Implied Move I cannot confirm a current figure for this event. The front-week straddle covering 24 September was not yet set when this was written, and quoting a stale one would be quoting a different quarter's price. What can be said is the shape: implied moves on this stock have historically landed in the 2.6% to 3.4% range, which is small for an earnings event and reflects how predictable the result usually is. Historical Event Analysis Measured from Polygon's daily bars, on the first full session after each release. Fiscal fourth quarter 2025, released after the close on 25 September 2025: the shares fell 2.90% on 26 September, from $943.31 to $915.95. Fiscal second quarter 2026, released after the close on 5 March 2026: the shares fell 2.40% into the print on the day of the release itself and then rose 1.58% on 6 March, from $982.57 to $998.10. This is the only rise in the sample, and it followed a fall. Fiscal third quarter 2026, released after the close on 28 May 2026: the shares fell 3.91% on 29 May, from $995.20 to $956.32, on a quarter that beat. The fiscal first quarter 2026 release in December 2025 is left out. The session following it moved less than a hundredth of a percent, and I could not confirm the release date to the day, so including it would mean averaging in a figure I cannot stand behind. Historical Average Move Minus 1.74%, the average of the three moves above. Two of the three were falls on results that were not bad. The sample is small and one-sided enough to be read as a pattern rather than a precise forecast: this stock has not been rewarded for a good quarter in a year. Our Expected Move Plus 3% to plus 6% if revenue clears $94.85 billion, adjusted earnings beat $6.55 and the worldwide renewal rate holds at 89.7% or better. Minus 3% to minus 6% if revenue misses $94 billion or the renewal rate slips again. Two signs because this is a mixed call, and each is tied to the outcome that produces it. The renewal rate is the switch. Both sides are wider than the 2.6% to 3.4% the options market has historically charged, and wider than the minus 1.74% the last three reactions averaged. The reason is the starting point. Every one of those three reactions happened with the stock near its highs and on a multiple in the high forties. It is now 18.49% off the high on a forward multiple of 40.94, so there is less optimism left to unwind on a miss and more room to re-rate on a beat than at any point in that sample. Impact Strength Medium. This is a predictable business reporting a quarter the market has mostly already seen in the monthly sales. What makes it worth reading is not the result but the reaction to it, which has been the unpredictable half for four quarters. Estimated Duration 1 to 3 trading days. If the renewal rate turns and the stock is still sold, that is information about the multiple rather than about the quarter, and the drift that follows is slower and longer than any single session. None of these three percentages is the same claim. The options figure is what the market charges for the event, the historical figure is what actually happened after the last three, and the expected move is my own conclusion drawn from both plus the de-rating above.

Result needed for a big moveiWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.

The earnings line will not do it. Five straight beats have produced three falls, so another beat of the usual size is the expected outcome and moves nothing. What moves this stock is the renewal rate and the adjusted comparable sales figure. A worldwide renewal rate back above 90%, with adjusted comparable sales holding near the 6.6% of the third quarter, says the fee engine is intact and the de-rating has been about the multiple rather than the business. That is the combination that gets a beat paid for the first time in a year. The other side is just as specific. A renewal rate below 89.5%, or adjusted comparable sales decelerating toward 4%, says the membership flywheel is slowing, and on a forward multiple of 40.94 that is the number that takes the stock back toward the $844.06 low.

Possible outcomesiThe main ways the event could turn out, with the expected stock reaction for each one.

Positive outcome. Revenue above $94.85 billion, adjusted earnings above $6.55, renewal at 89.7% or better and adjusted comparable sales near 6%. Expected stock reaction: a rise of 3% to 6%. This is the outcome where a stock that has de-rated for a year stops de-rating. Neutral outcome. Revenue and earnings roughly in line, renewal flat, comparable sales in line. Expected stock reaction: a move of 1% to 3% in either direction, most likely down, because an in-line print on this multiple gives buyers nothing new to pay for. This is the single most likely outcome and it is what the last three reactions looked like. Negative outcome. Revenue below $94 billion, or a renewal rate below 89.5%, or adjusted comparable sales decelerating sharply. Expected stock reaction: a fall of 3% to 6%, which puts the December low back in view.

Other affected stocksiOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.

Walmart and Target are the direct read-throughs on US consumer spending and on whether the grocery share shift is continuing. BJ's Wholesale Club is the closest comparison on the membership model itself, and reacts to what Costco says about renewal more than to what it says about sales. Kroger reads off grocery comparable sales. Dollar General moves on the trade-down question, which is the other side of the same consumer. PriceSmart runs the warehouse-club model in Latin America and is the smallest and most sentiment-driven of the group.

What the market may be missingiSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.

The reaction to this stock has stopped being about the quarter, and almost nobody prices it that way. Here is the arithmetic. Earnings per share went from $18.21 for fiscal 2025 to $19.88 on a trailing basis, up about 9%. Over the same stretch the share price fell 6.91%. Put those together and the multiple has come down by roughly a sixth in a year, on a company that beat expectations in every one of those quarters. The falls after those results were not the market judging the results. They were the market judging the price. That matters because it changes what a beat is worth. For most of the last decade a Costco beat was a reason to own Costco. For the last year it has been priced as already known, and the variable has been how much investors are willing to pay for it. The overlooked opportunity is that de-ratings end, and the ending is invisible until a good quarter is finally met with a green day. The overlooked risk is the mirror image: at 40.94 times forward earnings with a PEG of 3.62 there is a great deal of multiple still available to come out, and $844.06 is only 5.89% below here.

What else lands that dayiOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

The day is clear of anything that competes with this release. Weekly initial jobless claims are published at 12:30 UTC on 24 September 2026 and August new home sales at 14:00 UTC, both routine and neither about a warehouse club. Advance durable goods orders land the following morning, on 25 September, which is the session the first liquid reaction falls in, but a durable goods print has no read-through to membership retail worth naming. The Federal Open Market Committee met on 15 and 16 September 2026 and has already decided, so the rate event that dominated the middle of the month sits behind this card rather than in front of it. Net effect: Costco reports into its own evening. The move on 25 September is about Costco, which is unusual enough this month to be worth saying plainly, and it means the reaction can be read as a judgement on the company rather than on the tape.

Main risksiWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.

The first risk is the multiple. At 40.94 times forward earnings this stock is priced for a quality it genuinely has, and that leaves the reaction hostage to sentiment rather than to results. A perfectly good quarter can be sold, and has been, three times out of the last four. The second risk is the renewal rate. It is the number the valuation rests on, it has been drifting, and there is no version of this story that survives it going below 89%. The third risk is that the consumer is trading down into Costco rather than up. Strong comparable sales driven by fuel and by members shopping the less profitable categories flatter the top line and do less for the profit line than the same growth would have done three years ago. The fourth risk is that this is a low-beta name in a market that has been rewarding high-beta ones. Its beta is 0.86, and in a year when the index rose 14.09% that defensive quality was a cost rather than a protection.

Other factorsiAnything else worth knowing that the sections above do not cover.

The balance sheet takes several risks off the table. Costco holds $20.00 billion of cash against $8.23 billion of total debt and produced $8.81 billion of free cash flow over the trailing year, so nothing in this release can create a financing problem. The dividend is $5.88 a year, a yield of 0.66%, which is not why anyone owns this. Note also that the company has a history of occasional large special dividends, which are not in that yield and are not forecastable from it.

Trend over 6 to 12 monthsiWhich way the share price has been heading over the past year, and how far it has travelled.

Falling, and falling against a rising market. The shares are down 6.91% over the last 52 weeks, down 10.28% over six months, down 9.42% over three months and down 6.27% over the last month. The 52-week range runs from $844.06 to $1,096.50, and the close of $893.74 on 16 September 2026 sits 18.49% below the top of it.

Recent price actioniWhat the shares have done over the last few weeks and sessions, and on what kind of volume.

The last three weeks have been a steady decline with one pause. From the close of $943.89 on 31 August 2026 to $893.74 on 16 September 2026 the shares fell 5.31%, closing lower on nine of those twelve sessions. The one interruption was 14 September 2026, a rise of 1.57% from $904.77 to $918.91, given back over the two sessions that followed: down 1.91% on 15 September to $901.35 and down 0.85% on 16 September to $893.74. There is no gap and no single shock in this stretch. The decline came in ordinary daily falls, which is what a repricing looks like rather than a company event.

Market structureiThe shape of the chart. Rising highs and rising lows mean an uptrend, falling ones mean a downtrend, and neither means the price is stuck in a range.

Lower highs and lower lows. The stock peaked at $1,096.50 on 19 May 2026 and every rally since has stopped lower than the one before it. Within the last three weeks the same shape repeats in miniature: $943.89 on 31 August, then $918.91 on 14 September, then $893.74 on 16 September, each pullback ending below the last. Picture a staircase going down. Each landing is lower than the one before, and each step down travels further than the previous step recovered. That is a trend rather than a range, and its direction is down.

Support and resistance zonesiPrice areas where buyers have stepped in before, and price areas where sellers have. They often slow the price down when it gets there again.

Below the current price the level that matters is $844.06, the 52-week low struck on 16 December 2025. It is 5.89% below here and there is no tested shelf between the two, so a break of the recent lows opens that distance with little in the way. Above the current price there are two. The first is $918.91 to $943.89, where the stock traded at the start of September before breaking down. The second is $938.08, the 50-day average, which sits inside that zone 4.73% above the close and which the stock has not closed above since early September. A close back above $943.89 would say the September selling was an overshoot. A close above the 200-day average at $960.60 would be the first evidence that the twelve-month de-rating has stopped.

50-day and 200-day moving averagesiThe average closing price over the last 50 days and the last 200 days. Where the price sits against them shows whether the recent trend is strong or fading.

A moving average is the average closing price over that many trading days, drawn as a line so the trend is visible without reading every session. The 50-day average is $938.08 and the 200-day is $960.60. The close of $893.74 is 4.73% below the 50-day and 6.96% below the 200-day. The 50-day sits $22.52 below the 200-day, which is the arrangement traders read as a medium-term downtrend already in place for a while rather than one that has just begun.

Relative strengthiHow this stock has performed against the wider market and against its own sector over the same period.

This is the clearest fact on the chart. Over the last 52 weeks Costco fell 6.91% while the S and P 500 tracking fund rose 14.09%, a gap of 21.00 percentage points. Over six months the gap is wider: minus 10.28% against plus 12.41%, which is 22.69 points. Over three months it is 9.92 points and over the last month 3.86 points. Two things follow. The underperformance is large and it is consistent across every window. And it has narrowed recently only because the index has been falling too, which is a weak form of improvement rather than a real one.

Volume trendiHow many shares are changing hands lately compared with normal. Heavy volume behind a move means more traders agree with it.

Volume is flat, which is itself informative. The 20-day average is 1,979,624 shares against a 50-day average of 1,992,817, a difference of less than 1%. This decline has not come on heavy selling. Nobody is rushing for the exit; the bid has simply been lowered week after week. A genuine turn would need volume well above 2 million shares to show buyers behind it.

VolatilityiHow much the share price swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.

The 14-day average true range is $14.40, or 1.61% of the $893.74 price. The average daily high-to-low range over the last 20 sessions is $14.03, or 1.57%. Realised volatility is 15.95% over 14 days and 20.30% over 50 days, annualised. Those are low numbers and they matter for sizing in an unusual way. A stop set at one average day's range is about 1.6%, which is inside the noise on any session and far inside what an earnings reaction does. The historical implied move of 2.6% to 3.4% is roughly twice a normal day. Size on the event, not on the daily range.

Long-Term Technical ViewiThe wider chart over years. The big trend, the major price levels and how much the stock swings.

Over several years this has been a compounding chart rather than a cyclical one, which is what makes the last twelve months unusual. The long-term support that matters is the December low at $844.06, and beneath that there is no reference point inside this window. Long-term resistance is the $1,096.50 high of May 2026.

Technical biasiWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.

Bearish. Three facts drive it. The price is below both the 50-day average at $938.08 and the 200-day at $960.60, and the 50-day is below the 200-day. The structure is lower highs and lower lows since May. And the stock has underperformed the index on every window measured, by 21.00 percentage points over twelve months. This bearish chart does not contradict the mixed call above, because mixed is not positive. The chart says the trend is down and nothing on it has turned. The catalyst view says one number in this release could turn it, and until it does the chart is the better guide. I weight the chart more heavily beyond this week and the catalyst more heavily for the session itself.

What would invalidate this biasiThe price level or chart change that would prove the technical read wrong.

A daily close above $943.89 would be the first real damage to it, because that reclaims the zone the stock broke down from at the start of September. A daily close above $960.60, the 200-day average, would end it. In the other direction, a daily close below $844.06 confirms the bias rather than invalidating it, and opens ground with no visible support inside the 52-week window.

Technical data timestampiWhen the chart figures above were taken. Markets keep moving, so check live charts before you trade.

Every price, average, range and volume figure in this group is computed from Polygon's daily bars through the regular session that ended at 20:00 UTC on 16 September 2026. Markets move after this is written. Check a live chart before placing any trade.

Stock OverviewiThe basic numbers. Price, size of the company, sector, the past year of highs and lows, trading volume and the next earnings date.

COST trades at $893.74 at the close on 16 September 2026. Market value is approximately $396.35 billion on 443.48 million shares. It operates in the consumer staples sector and the warehouse-club retail industry. Its 52-week range is $844.06 to $1,096.50. Recent average daily volume is about 1.98 million shares. Fiscal fourth quarter results are due on 24 September 2026.

What the company doesiThe business in plain words. What it sells, who buys it, and how the money reaches the company.

Costco runs membership warehouse clubs. Shoppers pay an annual fee for the right to buy, and in exchange Costco sells a deliberately narrow range of goods at very small mark-ups in very large quantities. The fee is the product. Merchandise is close to a break-even service provided to fee payers, which is why a company with $293.59 billion of revenue keeps only 3.01% of it as profit and is still one of the largest retailers in the world by market value.

Revenue BreakdowniWhere the money comes from, split by product, by part of the business and by country.

Trailing twelve-month revenue is $293.59 billion, of which membership fees are a small fraction and almost all of the profit. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 total revenue was $70.53 billion, of which net sales were $69.15 billion, leaving the balance as membership fee income. Geographically the business is reported across the United States, Canada and other international markets, with the United States by far the largest. I cannot confirm a precise current segment split by revenue, so I am not quoting one.

Company GrowthiHow sales, profit, earnings per share and spare cash have changed over the last few years.

Reported revenue was $242.290 billion in fiscal 2023, $254.453 billion in fiscal 2024 and $275.235 billion in fiscal 2025, with $293.587 billion on a trailing basis since. That is compound growth of about 6.6% a year over the two years from fiscal 2023 to fiscal 2025, calculated as the square root of $275.235 billion divided by $242.290 billion, minus one. Net income was $6.292 billion, $7.367 billion and $8.099 billion across those same three years, and $8.838 billion on a trailing basis. That is compound growth of about 13.5% a year, roughly double the revenue rate, which is the operating leverage the membership model is supposed to produce. Diluted earnings per share went $14.16, $16.56, $18.21 and $19.88. Company growth is Medium. The rate is steady and the direction has never reversed, but high single-digit revenue growth is not what a forward multiple of 40.94 normally buys.

Earnings PerformanceiThe latest results, whether they beat or missed what the market expected, and what the company says comes next.

Costco has beaten earnings expectations in five consecutive quarters. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 diluted earnings per share were $4.93 against $4.28 a year earlier, on revenue of $70.53 billion. In the second quarter earnings per share were $4.58 on revenue of $69.6 billion, also a beat. Consensus for the fourth quarter is about $6.51 to $6.55 on revenue of about $94.85 billion, against $5.87 a year ago. The pattern worth noting is not the beats. It is that the shares fell after three of the last four of them.

Financial HealthiCash, debt, cash flow and profit margins, and whether the company keeps issuing new shares. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.

Cash is $20.00 billion against total debt of $8.23 billion, so the company holds more than twice its borrowings in cash. Free cash flow was $8.81 billion over the trailing year. Net margin is 3.01%, which is thin by design rather than by weakness, because the merchandise business is run close to cost on purpose. Financial health is Strong. There is no realistic scenario in which this balance sheet becomes the story.

ValuationiWhat you pay today for what the company earns, next to its rivals and its own past. Rated Cheap, Fair or Expensive.

The trailing price to earnings ratio is 44.95 and the forward ratio is 40.94. Enterprise value to EBITDA is 27.84 and price to sales is 1.35. The PEG ratio is 3.62, which compares the multiple with the growth rate and says plainly that you are paying about three and a half times the growth for it. These ratios show how much you pay today for each dollar of profit. On any of them Costco is Expensive rather than fair, and it has been for years. What has changed is the direction: the market paid 44.95 times trailing earnings after a year of paying a little less each quarter, and the whole question in this card is whether that process has finished.

ShareholdersiWho owns the company. Big funds, company insiders, and whether ownership sits with only a few holders.

Costco is a large-capitalisation index constituent, so ownership is dominated by the major index fund managers. I cannot confirm current precise holdings percentages for individual institutions, so I am not quoting them.

Insider ActivityiWhether the people running the company have been buying or selling their own shares lately.

I cannot confirm any specific open-market insider transaction in the period covered by this card. Scheduled sales and equity-award activity at a company this size are routine and should not be read as a signal in either direction.

Dividends and BuybacksiCash paid out to shareholders, whether that payment looks safe, and whether the company is buying back its own shares.

The annual dividend is $5.88 a share, a yield of 0.66%. The company raised its dividend by 13% alongside the third quarter result in May 2026. Costco also has a history of occasional large special dividends, which do not appear in the quoted yield and which are not predictable. Buybacks exist but are small relative to the market value and are not the reason to own this.

Competitive PositioniWho the company competes with, how much of the market it holds, and what it has that rivals do not.

The direct competitor on the model itself is BJ's Wholesale Club, with Sam's Club inside Walmart the larger rival. Walmart, Target, Kroger and the dollar stores compete for the same shopping trip without the membership structure. The advantage is durable and unusually simple: a membership base that renews at close to 90% is the cheapest customer acquisition in retail, and the scale it funds lets Costco price below competitors who have to earn a margin on every item. The vulnerability is the same fact read backwards. The whole structure rests on renewal, so the renewal rate is not one metric among many. It is the business.

Future OutlookiWhat sales and profit are expected to do next, and what management has promised.

My view is neutral to positive on the company and neutral on the stock, which are different claims. Revenue growth in the high single digits with earnings growing faster, a renewal rate near 90% and a balance sheet with no debt problem is a good business that should keep compounding. The stock is a separate question. Twelve months of a rising earnings line and a falling price says the market is still deciding what that compounding is worth, and nothing in a fourth quarter result settles that on its own.

Other Upcoming Company CatalystsiOther events ahead that could move the share price, such as results, launches or approvals, apart from the catalyst this report is built on.

Costco reports sales monthly, which makes each month a small catalyst and reduces the surprise in the quarterly release. The company has recently expanded its delivery partnership with Uber Eats, which is a modest positive for the digital business rather than a needle-mover. Fiscal first quarter 2027 results are due in December 2026, and an announcement of a special dividend or a membership fee change would be the two events capable of re-rating this stock outside a results day.

Long-Term Company RisksiWhat could weaken the business over the coming years, rather than around this one event.

The largest long-term risk is the renewal rate, because every other number in this company depends on it. A membership model that stops renewing at close to 90% is a different company on a different multiple. The second is the multiple itself. At 40.94 times forward earnings a decade of investor patience is already in the price, and the last twelve months are what it looks like when some of that patience is withdrawn. The rest are ordinary: competition from Sam's Club and BJ's, a thin merchandise margin that leaves no cushion for cost inflation, currency on the international business, and the possibility that strong comparable sales are being driven by fuel and by trade-down rather than by the profitable middle of the basket.

Traderavel VerdictiOur straight answer on the company after everything above, not on the trade. Quality, growth, price, risk and the long-term view.

Costco is a high-quality business with a genuinely durable advantage, a balance sheet that removes financial risk from the discussion and a profit line growing at roughly double the rate of its sales. Growth is medium, financial health is strong and company risk is low. The valuation is the entire argument. At 40.94 times forward earnings with a PEG of 3.62 this is an expensive stock that has spent a year getting less expensive, and the reaction to this result will say more about the multiple than about the quarter. It suits long-term investors buying the compounding who can ignore the re-rating. It does not suit anyone who needs the next twelve months to look like the last ten years.