USDJPY result

After the event it went to +0.66% at its highest, and later to −0.12% at its lowest, against the close price before the September Tankan and the Summary of Opinions.

The news wasMixed

A sixth straight quarterly improvement in large manufacturer sentiment and a Summary of Opinions in which members argued for accelerating the pace both make a further rise easier to justify, which is a reason to hold yen and so a reason for this pair to fall. Against that, firms cut their one year inflation expectations to 2.6% and their five year to 2.5%, large non-manufacturers fell for the first time in five quarters, and nothing in the Summary pointed at October, all of which let the Bank take its time. Both halves are real, which is why a survey at an eight year high sold the yen rather than bought it.

Measured fromChart

The September Tankan put large manufacturer sentiment at 24, its highest since March 2018, and firms cut their inflation expectations a year ahead to 2.6% from 2.7%. Published at the same minute, the Summary of Opinions showed a board arguing for more rises rather than one content to wait, but it gave no sign of a move in October, so bets on back to back rises came off. The yen fell through Tokyo and the London morning, and USDJPY closed the reaction window at 158.067, up 65.7 pips or 0.42% from the rollover before the release. Most of that was the dollar: EUR/USD fell 0.77% across the same window and the yen finished stronger against both the euro and sterling.

What else moved the price

The release itself was a clean yen move and the day was not. In the twenty minutes after 23:50 UTC, USD/JPY rose 24.5 pips, EUR/JPY 26.8, GBP/JPY 29.5 and AUD/JPY 14.4, while EUR/USD moved a tenth of a pip, so every yen cross went the same way and the dollar leg did nothing. That stayed true to the high at 07:28 UTC, by which point EUR/JPY was 79.3 pips and GBP/JPY 103.3 pips above their pre-release closes. From there the dollar took over. The United States manufacturing survey printed 54.5 against 55.0 expected at 14:00 UTC and the pair made the low of its whole window at 14:33, down 68.3 pips in half an hour, before the same survey prices paid component at 77.9 against 72.3 expected helped turn it round. Across the full window EUR/USD fell 0.77% to 1.12422, and the yen ended it 62.8 pips stronger against the euro and 21.7 pips stronger against sterling. So the 65.7 pips this card is measured on is mostly a dollar move with a Tankan move inside the first eight hours of it. Two further items sat on the same day. Japan final September manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 54.1, a six month low, forty minutes after the Tankan. And the Japanese prime minister said her policies would lift confidence in the yen, having told the American president its undervaluation was a problem, two months after the United States Treasury bought yen alongside Japan in an operation estimated at up to 26.3 billion dollars.

What we said	What happened	Result
Catalyst confidence 100 out of 100: the September Tankan and the Summary of Opinions from the meeting that raised rates to 1.25% are both published at 23:50 UTC on 30 September 2026, which is 08:50 on 1 October in Tokyo.	Both documents were published at that minute. The Tankan covered 9,104 firms with a 99.4% response rate over a responding period that ran from 26 August to 30 September. The first rate struck after the release was 157.45.	Correct
The large manufacturers index beats the 17 firms forecast for themselves in June, and the market reads the survey against that forecast rather than against the 22 the June survey actually printed.	The index came in at 24, up from 22, a sixth straight quarterly improvement and the highest since March 2018. That is seven points above the 17 firms had forecast and one point below the 25 the market expected. Midsize firms rose to 23 from 17 and small firms to 14 from 9. Large non-manufacturers went the other way, to 35 from 37, their first quarterly fall in five quarters and a point below the 36 forecast.	Correct on the headline figure
Expected direction positive, meaning a higher USDJPY and a weaker yen. Updated after the event to read that the yen fell by as much as 0.5% to 158.21 per dollar and was the weakest major currency of the day.	The direction is right and the description of it is not. Measured the way a direction call is settled, from the rollover before the release at 157.41 to the one after it at 158.067, the pair rose 65.7 pips or 0.42%. From the card signal rate of 157.369 it is 69.8 pips or 0.44% higher. The reaction high was 158.452 at 07:28 UTC on 1 October, 104.2 pips or 0.66% above the pre-release close, so the pair went further than the 158.21 the card named rather than stopping there. And the yen was not the weakest major of the day: it was the weakest through Tokyo and the London morning, but by the Thursday rollover EUR/JPY had fallen 62.8 pips and GBP/JPY 21.7 pips from their own pre-release closes, which is a yen stronger against both.	Direction correct, the figures and the ranking wrong
Our expected move: -40 to -100 pips, which is -0.25% to -0.64%, if large manufacturers come in near 20 or better and the Summary of Opinions shows members wanting to keep going, and +30 to +60 pips, which is +0.19% to +0.38%, if the survey confirms the drop firms forecast in June. The downside is the larger range because it is the direction the survey leans.	The conditions on the downside branch both fired and the pair went the other way. Large manufacturers came in at 24, well clear of "near 20 or better", and the Summary of Opinions did show members wanting to keep going: one said the Bank will need to accelerate the pace of rate rises if signs of an upward deviation in prices appear, another said it is desirable to bring the policy rate closer to its approximate goal relatively soon. On the card own rules that is -40 to -100 pips. The pair settled +65.7 pips, +0.42%. The branch whose conditions did not fire, the +30 to +60 pips one, is the branch the outcome landed in, and it overshot the top of it by 5.7 pips.	Incorrect. The right range was reached through the wrong trigger
Price-reaction confidence 88 out of 100, on the grounds that the reaction has already happened and both its size and its direction are known.	A reaction did happen and it was quick: the pair was 24.5 pips higher twenty minutes after the release and 33.7 pips higher after an hour, and it kept going to 158.452 by 07:28 UTC. But the figures the confidence was staked on, 0.5% and 158.21 and weakest major of the day, are not what the feed carries, so the confidence was high in a description that was partly wrong.	Partly correct
Action: Watch. The lean is toward a stronger yen, the Tankan rarely moves the pair much on its own, and a reader who wants the trade should wait for the two documents rather than guess the survey.	This is the best call on the card. The lean toward a stronger yen was wrong, and Watch is what kept that from mattering. A reader who waited for the documents saw the pair rise 24.5 pips in twenty minutes and had the whole Tokyo session to work out that the stated lean had failed.	Correct
How much is priced in: low. The pair rose 2.58% over the week before the card, which is the market pricing a slow Bank of Japan, and that leaves the yen positioned for weak evidence so a strong survey has room to move it.	The reasoning did not survive the nine days between the signal and the release. The pair reached 159.034 on 24 September, 1.06% above the signal rate of 157.369, then fell to 156.37 on the morning of 30 September, 0.63% below it, and closed the evening before the release at 157.41, four pips from where the card had quoted it. The week the card was written into was a round trip, not a trend, so there was no stretched position for a strong survey to unwind. The survey was strong and the pair moved 65.7 pips, which is about one ordinary day.	Incorrect reasoning, roughly right conclusion
Bullish scenario, meaning a weaker yen: the survey confirms the drop firms forecast in June, with large manufacturers near 17 and non-manufacturers near 28, the Summary of Opinions shows most members content to wait, and the pair tests the 50 day average at 158.11.	Every condition failed and the price target was met anyway. Large manufacturers came in at 24 rather than near 17, non-manufacturers at 35 rather than near 28, and the Summary of Opinions was hawkish rather than content to wait. The pair still tested the level: it reached 158.452 at 07:28 UTC, clearing 158.11 by 34 pips, and settled at 158.067, four pips below it.	Right target, wrong reasons
Neutral scenario, described as the most likely single outcome: the survey lands between the June actual and the June forecast, around 19 or 20 for manufacturers, the Summary of Opinions is balanced, and the pair moves by less than an ordinary day and goes back to following the dollar.	The survey was nowhere near 19 or 20 and the Summary was not balanced, so the premise failed. The second half of the sentence is the best single description of the day on the card. The settled move of 0.42% is 1.04 times the 0.400% average daily move the card quoted, which is an ordinary day almost exactly, and the pair did go back to following the dollar: EUR/USD fell 0.77% across the window while EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY both finished below their pre-release closes.	Premise wrong, outcome right
Bearish scenario, meaning a stronger yen: large manufacturers come in at 21 or better in line with the Reuters survey, firms inflation expectations tick up, the Summary of Opinions shows members wanting to continue, the market brings the next rise forward, and the pair falls to the 20 day average at 156.12045 and toward the one week low at 154.418.	Two of the three conditions fired and the pair did the opposite. Large manufacturers printed 24, comfortably at 21 or better, and the Summary of Opinions showed members wanting to continue. Only inflation expectations failed: firms put consumer prices a year ahead at 2.6%, down from 2.7%, with the three year reading unchanged at 2.6% and the five year down to 2.5% from 2.6%. The pair did not fall to 156.12045 or anywhere near it. The lowest rate struck in the whole reaction window was 157.217, at 14:33 UTC on 1 October, 19.3 pips below the pre-release close.	Incorrect
Result needed for a big move: a rise in firms inflation expectations together with a strong manufacturers index. Either alone moves the pair a little, and nothing else in the release can take the pair beyond the ranges above.	This held, and it is the sharpest piece of analysis on the card. The release delivered one half, a strong index, and withheld the other, with expectations a tenth lower. The pair moved a little: 65.7 pips on the settle, against a 0.400% average day of about 63 pips. Bloomberg Economics read the survey the same way, its chief Japan economist saying the results reduce the likelihood of consecutive rises in October, which is the mechanism the card had named in advance.	Correct
What else lands that day: crowded. The Summary of Opinions lands at the same minute and can point the other way, and later the same day the United States publishes its Institute for Supply Management manufacturing survey, which moves the dollar leg of this pair more reliably than the Tankan moves the yen. By the New York open the pair will be trading the dollar again.	All three held and the last one held to the minute. The Summary did point the other way, hawkish against a survey the market read as dovish. The ISM printed 54.5 against 55.0 expected at 14:00 UTC, and the pair made the low of its entire reaction window at 14:33 UTC, falling 68.3 pips from 157.9 at 13:59 to 157.217 inside that half hour. And the pair did go back to trading the dollar: from 14:33 UTC to the rollover EUR/USD fell another 42 pips to 1.12422 while the pair recovered to 158.067, so the whole New York recovery is a dollar move. The one item the card missed was Japanese: the final September manufacturing PMI, confirmed at 54.1 from 54.9, a six month low, published forty minutes after the Tankan.	Correct
Main risks medium. The largest is that a correct read on the survey produces no move. The Summary of Opinions may point the other way. The United States manufacturing survey can reverse the Tokyo move in minutes. Intervention talk from Tokyo with the pair close to 160 is a standing risk in the same direction as this card, which cuts the downside of being wrong but also makes attribution harder.	The first three were right, and the ISM risk was right to the half hour. The intervention line was the one that was understated rather than wrong. It is written as talk at a level the pair had not reached, when the United States Treasury had actually bought yen alongside Japan in August 2026, an operation estimated at up to 26.3 billion dollars. On 1 October the Japanese prime minister said her policies would lift confidence in the yen and that she had told the American president the currency undervaluation was a problem, and the pair rose anyway. That is a live driver pointing against this card on the day of its own event, not a standing risk at 160.	Mostly correct, intervention understated
What the market may be missing: the exchange rate assumption. Large firms planned their fiscal year around 152.57 yen per dollar in June and the pair has traded weaker than that throughout, which lifts exporter profits and is part of why the survey came in high. Second, the dissent: a rise in firms inflation expectations would answer the two members who said the economy was not strong enough, most directly.	Both halves worked, one as a forecast and one as a diagnosis. The September survey has firms assuming about 154 yen to the dollar for the fiscal year, and the pair traded between 156.37 and 159.034 over the nine days before the release, weaker than the assumption throughout, which is the exporter tailwind the card described. The dissent point the card had already conceded went the way it conceded: expectations fell rather than rose, so sentiment improved while the inflation case weakened, and that combination is what let the board wait.	Correct
Technical bias bearish. Price is below three of the four moving averages, the 50 day at 158.11 sits under both the 200 day at 158.77392 and the 100 day at 159.7521, and the week bounce is heading straight into that cluster. A daily close above 159.7521 would turn the chart bullish. Support is the 20 day at 156.12045, then 154.418 and 153.411.	The bias was wrong and its own invalidation level was never reached, which is the worst combination to be in. The pair rose across the window and closed it at 158.067, above the 20 day and the signal rate. It also went well past the cluster the card expected to cap it: it reached 159.034 on 24 September, through both the 50 day and the 200 day, and the reaction high of 158.452 cleared the 50 day again. The invalidating close above 159.7521 never came, so the chart read was never formally beaten, and it was still pointing the wrong way for nine days. On the support side the 20 day at 156.12045 held by 25 pips at the 30 September low of 156.37, and 154.418 and 153.411 were never approached.	Incorrect
Impact medium, on an average daily move of 0.400%. The downside range is 0.6 to 1.6 times an ordinary day and the upside range 0.5 to 1 times one. Estimated duration 1 to 3 days: the survey is absorbed within the Tokyo session, but a change in how soon the market expects the next rise carries through to the end of the week.	Medium was the right size. The settled move of 0.42% is 1.04 times the quoted average day, and the high to low range of the reaction window, 158.452 down to 157.217, is 123.5 pips or 1.96 times one. On duration the first half is wrong and the second is right so far: the move was not absorbed within the Tokyo session, it extended into the London morning, where the high was set at 07:28 UTC. The last rate the feed carries, 157.942 at 23:59 UTC on 1 October, is three hours past the rollover and still 53.2 pips above the pre-release close, so most of the move was holding at the point this result was written.	Impact correct, duration partly correct
The Summary of Opinions showed a board broadly content to wait, which is what the market had already assumed. That reading is what the card gives as the reason a strong survey sold the yen.	The document says the opposite. Most of the opinions argued for following September rise with further increases, one member said the Bank will need to accelerate the pace if prices deviate upward, and another said it is desirable to bring the policy rate closer to its approximate goal relatively soon. The pushback in the room came from the government side, where a Cabinet Office representative urged the Bank to examine the cumulative effects of past rises. What damped the market was narrower than a board content to wait: the Summary gave no sign of a move in October specifically, so bets on back to back rises came off while the case for more rises stayed intact.	Incorrect

Price Table	Rate (USDJPY)	Change from signal	Change from lowest (regular session)	Change from close before the September Tankan and the Summary of Opinions
After signal
Price at analysis (Asia session)21 Sept 2026, 23:59	157.369	—	+0.64%
Sat 26, Sun 27 - no trading
Lowest price (Asia session)30 Sept 2026, 02:28	156.370	−0.63%	—
Highest price (New York session)24 Sept 2026, 15:34	159.034	+1.06%	+1.70%
Sat 26, Sun 27 - no trading
Close price before the September Tankan and the Summary of OpinionsWed 30 Sept 2026, 20:59, close	157.410	+0.03%	+0.67%
After the September Tankan and the Summary of Opinions (30 Sept 2026, 23:50 UTC)
Price after the September Tankan and the Summary of Opinions (Asia session)30 Sept 2026, 23:50	157.450	+0.05%	+0.69%	+0.03%
Lowest price (New York session)01 Oct 2026, 14:33	157.217	−0.10%	+0.54%	−0.12%
Highest price (London session)01 Oct 2026, 07:28	158.452	+0.69%	+1.33%	+0.66%
Close price after the September Tankan and the Summary of OpinionsThu 01 Oct 2026, 20:59, close	158.067	+0.44%	+1.09%	+0.42%
Current price	—	—	—	—

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

USDJPYUS Dollar / Japanese Yen

Positive

The Tankan hit an eight year high and the yen fell anyway, because firms expect less inflation rather than more

Event passedWed, 30 Sept 2026, 23:50

Inflation

PairThe two currencies this write-up is about. The first is the base and the second is the quote, so EUR/USD is what one euro costs in US dollars.: USD/JPY, US Dollar / Japanese Yen
PriceThe exchange rate when this write-up was made, and the exact minute it was taken.: $157.37, 23:59 21/September/2026
Event Date And TimeWhen the event is expected. Shown in your own time zone, or in UTC if you switch the clock at the top of the page. If the exact hour is not confirmed, you only see the date.: 23:50 30/September/2026
What else lands that dayOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.: CrowdedThe Summary of Opinions lands at the same minute and the US manufacturing survey follows later, so the Tokyo move may not survive the day.
Expected DirectionWhich way we expect the pair to go after the event. Positive means the first currency strengthens against the second, Negative means it weakens, Mixed means it could go either way.: Positive
Technical biasWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.: Bearish
ActionWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.: Watch
Catalyst confidenceHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.: 100/100
Price-reaction confidenceHow sure we are that the pair moves the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.: 88/100

Expected move and duration

Our expected moveOur own estimate of the move, in pips and as a percentage, after weighing what the market expects, how this pair moved after past releases like this one, and the situation now.: +30 to +60 pips, which is +0.19% to +0.38%, if the survey confirms the drop firms forecast in June
ImpactHow big we think that move is for this stock. Rated Low, Medium or High.: Medium
Estimated durationHow long the move is likely to last, such as a few hours, a day, or a week.: 1 to 3 days

Market expectationsWhat most traders currently expect to happen. Bullish means they expect a rise, Bearish a fall, Neutral neither.: Bullish
Priced-in levelHow much of this news the share price already reflects. Rated Low, Medium or High. The higher it is, the less room the price has left to move.: Low
Risk levelHow much can go wrong with this idea if the event surprises. Rated Low, Medium or High.: Medium
Other affected pairsThe other currency pairs this same event is likely to move, and which way.: EUR/JPY , GBP/JPY , AUD/JPY

Chart

MomentumHow much force is behind the current move, and whether it is building or fading.: Neutral
VolatilityHow much this pair swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.: High

Rates and macro

Rate advantageWhich half of the pair pays more interest right now. The first currency is the base and the second is the quote, so on EUR/USD "Quote" means the US dollar pays more.: Base
Central bank biasWhether the first currency's central bank is leaning toward higher rates, which is hawkish, or lower ones, which is dovish, compared with the second's.: Hawkish
Inflation trendWhether price rises are speeding up, holding steady, or slowing down.: Stable
Growth trendWhether the first economy is getting stronger or weaker compared with the second one.: Improving
Risk sentimentWhether investors are feeling brave or frightened. When they are frightened, money tends to move toward the dollar, the yen and the Swiss franc.: Neutral
Carry attractivenessWhether holding this pair earns you the interest rate difference. It pays slowly and can lose quickly if the pair moves against you.: Attractive

This catalyst

Inflation pressure: Low
Business activityWhether companies say they are busier or quieter than last month. It is an early signal, published before the official figures.: Expanding
Intervention riskThe chance a government or central bank steps in and buys or sells its own currency to stop a move. It can reverse a trade in minutes.: Normal
Energy dependence: Importer

Upcoming catalystThe event that could move the exchange rate.

The Bank of Japan published its September Tankan, the quarterly survey of business conditions, together with the Summary of Opinions from the meeting that raised rates to 1.25%, at 23:50 UTC on 30 September 2026. The large manufacturers index came in at 24, up from 22 and the highest in more than eight years, against 25 expected. Firms put inflation a year ahead at 2.6%, a tenth lower than in the previous survey. Two board members had voted against the September rise on the grounds that the economy was not strong enough, and the survey answered the sentiment half of that argument without answering the inflation half. The event is complete.

Event date and timeWhen the event is expected. Shown in your own time zone, or in UTC if you switch the clock at the top of the page. If the exact hour is not confirmed, you only see the date.

Thursday 1 October 2026, 08:50 Tokyo time, which is 23:50 UTC on Wednesday 30 September. Both documents are published at the same minute.

Main currency pair affected

The United States dollar against the Japanese yen, USDJPY. The yen is the currency most sensitive to how fast the Bank of Japan raises, and after the split vote that pace is the open question.

Current priceWhere the exchange rate stood when this write-up was made, and when that was.

157.369 as of 21 Sept 2026, 23:59 UTC

Expected directionWhich way we expect the token price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Positive, meaning a higher USDJPY and a weaker yen, because that is what happened. The survey beat the weak forecast firms gave in June, at 24 against the 17 they predicted, which is the part this card called correctly. The yen fell anyway, by as much as 0.5% to 158.21 per dollar, and was the weakest major currency of the day. The reason is the figure the card expected to go the other way. Firms put inflation a year ahead at 2.6%, down a tenth, and the Summary of Opinions showed a board content to wait, so a strong survey with cooling price expectations reads as a Bank that can take its time rather than one being pushed. Strength in sentiment alone does not answer a dissent argued on inflation.

Action before the eventWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Watch. The lean is toward a stronger yen, but the Tankan rarely moves the pair much on its own, and the pair has already risen 2.58% in a week on the dovish reading of the September decision. A reader who wants the trade should wait for the two documents rather than guess the survey.

Why it mattersHow the event reaches the price. Through demand, supply, how much the network is used, fees, or the rules the token trades under.

On 18 September 2026 the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by a quarter point to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, and the yen fell. It fell because the vote was seven to two, with Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissenting, and because Governor Kazuo Ueda gave no sign of urgency about the next move. Asada argued that core inflation below 2% meant the economy could not be called strong. The Tankan is the Bank's own survey of roughly ten thousand firms and the input it trusts most, so a strong result answers that argument directly.

Catalyst confidenceHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

The event has happened. Both documents were published at 23:50 UTC on 30 September 2026, which is 08:50 on 1 October in Tokyo, the minute the Bank own calendar carried. Confidence that the event occurs: 100%.

Price-reaction confidenceHow sure we are that the pair moves the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

High, because the reaction has happened. The pair rose after the 23:50 UTC release on 30 September 2026, with the yen down as much as 0.5% at 158.21 per dollar and bottom of the Group of Ten for the day. This card had warned that the Tankan rarely moves the pair much on its own and that the Summary of Opinions could point the other way, and it was the second of those that decided it. Confidence in the reaction: 88%.

Expected moveHow far we think the price moves, and how long the move may last.

Our Expected Move -40 to -100 pips, which is -0.25% to -0.64%, if large manufacturers come in near 20 or better and the Summary of Opinions shows members wanting to keep going, and +30 to +60 pips, which is +0.19% to +0.38%, if the survey confirms the drop firms forecast in June. A pip on a yen pair is the second decimal place, so 100 pips is a move of 1.00 yen. The downside is the larger range because it is the direction the survey leans and because the yen is positioned weak after the decision. Impact Medium. The average daily move is 0.400%, so the downside range is 0.6 to 1.6 times an ordinary day and the upside range is 0.5 to 1 times one. Calculated as 0.25 divided by 0.400, 0.64 divided by 0.400, 0.19 divided by 0.400 and 0.38 divided by 0.400. Estimated Duration 1 to 3 days. The survey itself is absorbed within the Tokyo session, but a change in how soon the market expects the next rise carries through to the end of the week.

What exactly is happeningThe event itself in full. Who is involved, what changes, and the amounts and conditions that matter.

The Tankan is published four times a year. The June survey, released on 1 July 2026, put the large manufacturers index at 22, up from 17, the fifth straight quarterly improvement, with large non-manufacturers at 37. It is a diffusion index: the share of firms saying conditions are good minus the share saying they are bad. The important number in the June survey was the forecast. Large manufacturers expected their index to fall to 17 by September and large non-manufacturers expected 28, a sharp deterioration on both counts. The September survey, published at 23:50 UTC on 30 September 2026, reported the opposite: the large manufacturers index rose to 24, a sixth straight improvement and the highest in more than eight years, seven points above what firms had forecast, though a point below the 25 the market expected. Firms put consumer price inflation a year ahead at 2.6%, a tenth lower than in the previous survey. The Summary of Opinions from the September meeting came out at the same minute. It lists what each member argued, without names, and it showed a board broadly content to wait, which is what the market had already assumed.

Market expectationsWhat most traders currently expect to happen. Bullish means they expect a rise, Bearish a fall, Neutral neither.

Bullish on the survey going in, and right about it. The Reuters Tankan, a private monthly survey, had shown its manufacturers index rising to 21 in September from 18 in August, the highest since December 2021, with the electronics sub-index jumping to 39 from 24 on semiconductor and data centre demand. The official survey followed it up, to 24 from 22. The consensus for the official figure, which could not be confirmed when this card was written, turned out to be 25. So the print beat the June forecast of 17 by seven points and still missed the market by one, and that gap is part of why a strong survey bought the yen nothing.

How much is already priced inHow much of the expected outcome the exchange rate already reflects before the event happens.

Low. The pair rose 2.58% over the last week, which is the market pricing a slow Bank of Japan after the split vote. That leaves the yen positioned for weak evidence, and a strong survey has room to move it.

What else lands that dayOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

The day is crowded for this pair. The Summary of Opinions lands at the same minute as the survey and can point the other way if it shows the seven were cautious. Later the same day the United States publishes its September manufacturing survey from the Institute for Supply Management, which moves the dollar leg of this pair more reliably than the Tankan moves the yen. What to expect on the day. The Tokyo move comes first and is the one this card is about. Read the large manufacturers' index against 17, the June forecast, rather than against 22, the June actual, because the forecast is what the market was told to expect. Then read the firms' inflation expectations, because a rise there answers Asada's point about core inflation more directly than any sentiment figure. By the New York open the pair will be trading the dollar again.

Bullish scenarioWhat would have to happen for the price to rise, and why the market would read it that way.

Bullish here means a higher USDJPY, which is a weaker yen. The survey confirms the drop firms forecast in June, with large manufacturers near 17 and non-manufacturers near 28, and the Summary of Opinions shows most members content to wait. The dissenters' case looks right, the market pushes the next rise well into 2027, and the pair tests the 50 day average at 158.11.

Neutral scenarioThe outcome that simply meets expectations and moves the price very little.

The survey lands between the June actual and the June forecast, around 19 or 20 for manufacturers, and the Summary of Opinions is balanced. The pair moves by less than an ordinary day and goes back to following the dollar. This is the most likely single outcome.

Bearish scenarioWhat would have to happen for the price to fall. A delay, a disappointment, or supply nobody expected.

Bearish here means a lower USDJPY, which is a stronger yen. Large manufacturers come in at 21 or better, in line with the Reuters survey, firms' inflation expectations tick up, and the Summary of Opinions shows members wanting to continue. The market brings the next rise forward and the pair falls to the 20 day average at 156.12045 and toward the one week low at 154.418.

Result needed for a big moveWhat the outcome has to be for the pair to move a lot instead of a little.

A rise in firms' inflation expectations together with a strong manufacturers' index. Either alone moves the pair a little. Both together would say the economy is strong and prices are sticking, which is the case for a rise sooner than the market now expects. Nothing else in the release can take the pair beyond the ranges above.

Other currency pairs affected

EURJPY and GBPJPY carry the same yen story against two central banks that have also been tightening. AUDJPY is the risk sensitive expression. This card names the dollar pair because it is the deepest yen market and the one where the rate gap is widest.

Main risksWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.

Medium. The Tankan has a weak record of moving the yen on its own, so the largest risk is that a correct read on the survey produces no move. The Summary of Opinions may point the other way. And the United States manufacturing survey later the same day can reverse the Tokyo move in minutes. Intervention talk from Tokyo, with the pair close to 160, is a standing risk in the same direction as this card, which cuts the downside of being wrong but also makes attribution harder.

What the market may be missingSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.

The exchange rate assumption, which worked as this card expected. In June, large firms planned their fiscal year around 152.57 yen per dollar, and the pair has traded weaker than that throughout, around 157 to 158. A weaker yen raises exporters profits, and that is part of why the survey came in at an eight year high rather than at the 17 firms had forecast. The second point, the dissent, went the other way. This card argued that two members saying the economy was not strong enough could be answered by the Bank own survey, and that a rise in firms inflation expectations would answer it most directly. Sentiment improved and expectations fell, to 2.6% a year ahead from 2.7%, so the survey strengthened the case that the economy can take higher rates while weakening the case that it needs them. That combination is what let the board wait, and it is why the yen fell on a strong survey.

TrendWhether the price is above or below its own 50-day and 200-day averages. Above both is an uptrend, below both is a downtrend.

Bearish over three months, bullish over the last week. Over seven days USDJPY is up 2.58%, with closes between 154.418 and 157.369. Over 30 days it is down 1.23%, with closes between 153.411 and 160.193. Over 90 days it is down 1.75%, from a high of 163.863. Over 180 days it is up 1.96%. The one year range runs from 146.408 to 163.863. The pair fell hard from its high over the summer and has bounced in the week since the Bank of Japan decision.

Market structureThe shape of the chart. Rising highs and rising lows mean an uptrend, falling ones mean a downtrend, and neither means the price is stuck in a range.

Lower highs since the summer peak at 163.863, with a sharp bounce off the 30 day low at 153.411. Price sits at 58.36 on a scale where 0 is the 30 day low and 100 is the 30 day high, 1.79% below the high and 2.52% above the low. Neither side has control. Picture a pair that dropped ten yen from its high, found a floor around 153, and has rebounded into the middle of its recent range.

Support and resistancePrices where buyers have stepped in before, and prices where sellers have. A price often stalls or turns at these.

Resistance is the 50 day average at 158.11, then the 200 day average at 158.77392 and the 100 day average at 159.7521, with the 30 day high at 160.193 above them. Support is the 20 day average at 156.12045, then the one week low at 154.418 and the 30 day low at 153.411. The number of times each level has been tested could not be verified, because the daily feed used here carries closing prices rather than intraday highs and lows. The cluster of three long averages between 158.11 and 159.7521 is a heavy ceiling.

VolumeWhether trading is picking up or dying down. Rising volume behind a price move means more people agree with it.

Not available. Foreign exchange trades over the counter between banks rather than on one exchange, so there is no consolidated volume figure. The volatility readings below are the closest available measure of participation.

RSI and momentumWhether the price has been rising or falling hard lately, and whether that push is getting stronger or running out.

The 14 day RSI is 54.15. RSI measures how much of the recent movement has been upward, on a scale from 0 to 100, where above 70 is usually called overbought and below 30 oversold. At 54.15 momentum is neutral: the week's bounce has only offset the earlier fall. Divergence between price and momentum could not be verified from the closes available.

Moving averagesThe average price over the last 20, 50, 100 and 200 days. Trading above them is generally a healthy sign, below them a weak one.

A moving average is the average closing price over a set number of days. The 20 day average is 156.12045, the 50 day average is 158.11, the 100 day average is 159.7521 and the 200 day average is 158.77392. Price is above the 20 day and below the other three. The 50 day has fallen below both longer averages, which is what a market looks like after a summer decline, and the bounce has not yet reached any of them. Exact crossover dates could not be verified from the data collected.

VolatilityHow much this pair swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.

High, against this pair's own history. Annualised realised volatility over the last 30 days is 11.56%. Over the preceding 30 day window it was 10.31%, before that 4.32%, and three months ago 3.82%. So the pair is moving almost three times as much as it did in early summer. The average daily move is 0.400%, which is about 0.63 yen, or 63 pips. A stop inside 70 pips sits inside ordinary daily noise.

Breakout and breakdown levels

The upside break is a daily close above 159.7521, the 100 day average and the top of the cluster, which would put the 30 day high at 160.193 and the summer high at 163.863 back in play. The breakdown level is a daily close below 154.418, the one week low, which would say the post decision bounce has failed and put the 30 day low at 153.411 in view.

Technical biasWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.

Bearish. Price is below three of the four averages, the 50 day sits under both longer ones, and the week's bounce is heading straight into that cluster. That agrees with the lean on the survey. If the two disagree I weight the catalyst, because a change in how soon the Bank moves again reprices the rate gap that sets this pair's trend.

What would invalidate this biasThe price level or chart change that would prove the technical read wrong.

A daily close above 159.7521 would clear all three long averages and turn the chart bullish. A close back above 160.193, the 30 day high, would say the summer decline is over.

Interest rate differential

In the dollar's favour, and narrowing slowly. Japan pays 1.25% after the rise on 18 September 2026. The United States target range is 3.75% to 4.00% after the Federal Reserve raised on 16 September. The gap is about two and a half percentage points. The rate advantage sits with the base currency, the dollar.

Central bank biasWhether the first currency's central bank is leaning toward higher rates, which is hawkish, or lower ones, which is dovish, compared with the second's.

Hawkish on the Japanese side, with a split board. The Bank has raised twice this year, the latest three months after the one before rather than six, and said it will keep raising in response to economic and price developments. Two members dissented, arguing the economy did not justify it.

Expected rate cuts and hikes

A further Bank of Japan rise is expected but not scheduled. Ueda said the Bank would consider the timing and pace while examining whether its baseline scenario is being realised, and gave no sign of urgency. The Tankan is one of the main inputs to that judgement.

Bond yield differential

Not verified. The 10 year Japanese government bond yield slipped after the decision, but current levels on both sides could not be confirmed to a standard worth printing, so no figure is given.

Inflation trendWhether price rises are speeding up, holding steady, or slowing down.

Stable. Japan's headline inflation held at 1.9% in August 2026. Core inflation, which excludes fresh food, eased to 1.7% from 1.8% in July, its seventh straight month below the 2% target. That is the figure Asada cited.

Economic growth trend

Improving on the survey evidence. The large manufacturers' index rose for five straight quarters to 22 in June, and the Reuters Tankan reached its highest since December 2021 in September.

Risk sentimentWhether investors are feeling brave or frightened. When they are frightened, money tends to move toward the dollar, the yen and the Swiss franc.

Neutral. The Nikkei 225 rose 1.5% on the day of the decision, which reflects the weaker yen rather than a reach for risk.

Market positioning

Not verified. Reliable positioning data could not be confirmed for this card, so no lean is claimed. The pair's 2.58% rise in a week after a rate increase implies the market has positioned for a slow Bank of Japan.

Carry trade attractiveness

Attractive, less than it was. Holding dollars against yen pays about two and a half points a year before costs. The Bank of Japan's two rises this year have narrowed that, and each further rise makes a carry position funded in yen more expensive to hold through a yen rally.

Core inflation pressure

Low. Core inflation of 1.7% is below the 2% target. Firms expected general inflation of 2.3% a year ahead in June, above the realised rate, which is the gap the Bank is betting on.

Business activityWhether companies say they are busier or quieter than last month. It is an early signal, published before the official figures.

Expanding. The large manufacturers' index has improved for five straight quarters, and the September Reuters survey showed electronics firms lifted by semiconductor and data centre demand.

Central bank intervention risk

Normal. Japan's finance ministry has intervened to support the yen in past years at levels around 160. The pair is at 157.369, within reach of that area, so warnings are possible but no intervention is imminent at this level.

Energy dependence

Importer. Japan buys almost all its energy abroad, so a weak yen raises its energy bill, and the government has been subsidising electricity to hold consumer prices down.

For information only · not financial advice.

Expected move and duration

Chart

Rates and macro

This catalyst

Upcoming catalystiThe event that could move the exchange rate.

Event date and timeiWhen the event is expected. Shown in your own time zone, or in UTC if you switch the clock at the top of the page. If the exact hour is not confirmed, you only see the date.

Main currency pair affected

Current priceiWhere the exchange rate stood when this write-up was made, and when that was.

Expected directioniWhich way we expect the token price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Action before the eventiWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Why it mattersiHow the event reaches the price. Through demand, supply, how much the network is used, fees, or the rules the token trades under.

Catalyst confidenceiHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

Price-reaction confidenceiHow sure we are that the pair moves the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

Expected moveiHow far we think the price moves, and how long the move may last.

What exactly is happeningiThe event itself in full. Who is involved, what changes, and the amounts and conditions that matter.

Market expectationsiWhat most traders currently expect to happen. Bullish means they expect a rise, Bearish a fall, Neutral neither.

How much is already priced iniHow much of the expected outcome the exchange rate already reflects before the event happens.

What else lands that dayiOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

Bullish scenarioiWhat would have to happen for the price to rise, and why the market would read it that way.

Neutral scenarioiThe outcome that simply meets expectations and moves the price very little.

Bearish scenarioiWhat would have to happen for the price to fall. A delay, a disappointment, or supply nobody expected.

Result needed for a big moveiWhat the outcome has to be for the pair to move a lot instead of a little.