PPG reports third-quarter results hours before the Fed decides, with its promise to cover all cost inflation by the fourth quarter made when oil was expected to stay flat

Upcoming catalystiThe event that could move the share price.

PPG Industries reports third-quarter 2026 results after the United States market closes on Tuesday 27 October 2026. PPG announced that date itself, so the day is scheduled. The company did not publish the release minute, so the time is not confirmed and this card does not state one. The conference call with chairman and chief executive Tim Knavish and chief financial officer Jamie Beggs is scheduled for 8:00 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday 28 October 2026, which is 12:00 UTC.

Main stock affectediThe company the event affects most directly.

PPG Industries, Inc., New York Stock Exchange ticker PPG.

Current priceiWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.

$107.01 as of 28 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC, the regular-session close.

Expected stock reactioniWhich way we expect the share price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Negative.

Action before the eventiWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Avoid. The shares are already 4.4% below both their 50-day and 200-day averages and have lagged the S and P 500 by about 15 percentage points over three months, so the market has been marking this business down for a quarter. Into that, the company has to answer one question on the call: whether it still covers 100% of its cost inflation by the fourth quarter, a commitment it made in July when it expected raw material prices to stay flat. Brent crude has since closed at $105.28 a barrel, and the answer lands at 12:00 UTC on 28 October, six hours before a Federal Reserve decision. There is no cheap way to own this report.

Why the stock is affectediThe link between the event and this company.

PPG turns oil into paint. Its main raw materials are resins, solvents, reactants, additives, epoxy and titanium dioxide, and most of those are made from crude oil and natural gas. In January 2026 management told the market it expected flat raw material prices for the year, with higher costs in only three categories. That assumption broke. By the second quarter the company said costs had risen for raw materials, energy, logistics and packaging across the coatings value chain, that it had covered about 90% of its cost of goods sold inflation with price, and that it expected to cover 100% by the fourth quarter, one quarter ahead of its original commitment. Coatings prices are negotiated with car makers, builders and distributors and move with a lag of a quarter or more, while the feedstock cost moves with the barrel. Brent has now run to the middle of the 100 dollar range on the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. The third-quarter numbers themselves mostly predate that move. The fourth-quarter guidance does not.

Catalyst confidenceiHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

60%. The event itself is close to certain, because PPG has announced the date and has reported on schedule every quarter. What is not certain is the outcome. My expected outcome is third-quarter adjusted earnings close to the $2.26 consensus, organic sales growth inside the low to mid single-digit range the company guided to, and full-year adjusted earnings guidance either narrowed into the lower half of the $7.70 to $8.10 range or reaffirmed with new language about fourth-quarter raw material costs. The 60% is my confidence in that outcome, not in the report happening.

Stock-reaction confidenceiHow sure we are that the stock reacts the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

54% that the shares fall on the first full session after the release, down from 58% at the last check. Three of the last four reports produced a fall, the two most recent both did, and the setup into this one is still worse rather than better. The figure comes down because two of the things this card leans on moved against it on 2 October. The G7 agreed to sell up to 100 million barrels of emergency crude and diesel through the International Energy Agency over four months, which is the first coordinated attempt to bring down the feedstock and freight costs the whole argument rests on. And September payrolls at 29,000 took a Federal Reserve rise on 28 October from about 70% priced to 17%, which makes the dovish surprise this card named as its third risk closer to the base case than to a surprise. It is still held above half rather than below it because the valuation is low, the fourth-quarter bar inside the existing guidance is soft, and four months of releases do not undo a quarter of cost inflation that has already happened.

When the market will reactiThe moment the price is likely to move, such as at the announcement or at the next market open.

The release lands after the close on 27 October, so the first visible reaction is in after-hours trading that evening and then at the 13:30 UTC open on 28 October. The call at 12:00 UTC on 28 October is where the cost and guidance language is set, and that is before the regular session opens, so the opening price already contains it. The window that matters is the 28 October close. Be careful with that close, because the Federal Reserve announces its decision at 18:00 UTC the same day and the last two hours of the session belong to the Fed rather than to PPG.

Effect on the businessiWhat the event changes for the company itself, such as its sales, costs or profit.

Medium, and concentrated in margin rather than in sales. PPG sold $4.5 billion in the second quarter, up 7%, with organic sales up 4% split evenly between volume and price, and it has now grown organic sales for six consecutive quarters. Demand is not the problem. Margin is. Segment income in the second quarter was $185 million on $1,098 million of Global Architectural Coatings sales, $329 million on $1,619 million of Performance Coatings sales, and $229 million on $1,778 million of Industrial Coatings sales. Industrial Coatings earns about 13 cents of segment income on each sales dollar against about 20 cents at Performance Coatings, so Industrial is where a feedstock increase bites first and hardest. A rise in petrochemical input costs that is not passed on would show up there before it showed up anywhere else.

Market expectations and forecastiWhat investors already expect from this event, and the numbers being forecast.

Consensus for the quarter is adjusted earnings of about $2.26 a share, which is growth of about 1.8% on the $2.22 the company earned in the third quarter of 2025. That consensus has been trimmed by about 0.4% over the last 30 days, so analysts have been moving down rather than up into the print. PPG guided third-quarter organic sales growth to a low single-digit to mid single-digit percentage range and reaffirmed full-year adjusted earnings of $7.70 to $8.10. Here is the arithmetic that matters. PPG earned $1.83 in the first quarter and $2.23 in the second, which is $4.06 for the half. Add the $2.26 consensus for the third quarter and the nine-month total is $6.32. The full-year range then implies fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.38 at the low end and $1.78 at the high end, against $1.51 a year earlier. So the bottom of the company's own guidance already allows for a fourth quarter about 9% smaller than last year's, and the top demands one about 18% bigger. That is a wide range with a soft floor, and it is the reason the quarter itself is unlikely to break the guidance. My forecast is that the quarter is fine and the language is not. I expect roughly in-line earnings, organic growth near the low end of the guided range, and a fourth quarter that management frames around cost recovery rather than margin expansion. In trading terms that is a fall of 3% to 7% on the first full session, which is a move of about 3 to 7 dollars a share.

How much is already priced iniHow much of the expected outcome the share price already reflects before the event happens.

Medium. The market has already marked the stock down. It is 20% below its February high, sits 34% of the way up its 52-week range, and has lagged the S and P 500 over both three and twelve months. Analysts have trimmed the quarter. Two of the last three reports were followed by falls, so nobody is approaching this one expecting a gift. That is the priced-in part. What is not priced in is the specific thing this report has to address. The cost-coverage commitment was made on 28 July. Brent closed at $105.28 on 28 September and at $102.25 on 2 October, the Strait of Hormuz is still the subject of a live standoff, and there has been no company update since. A market that has generally marked down a cyclical is not the same as a market that has modelled a broken feedstock assumption. The gap between those two is what leaves room for a move. The one thing that has started to close that gap is not from the company. On 2 October the G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency crude and diesel, and the first prices to move were the refined products that sit in PPG's freight and packaging bill rather than crude itself. A reader looking for the moment this card's premise weakens should watch diesel, not Brent.

What else lands that dayiOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

This is a crowded 48 hours and it works against a clean reading of PPG. The Federal Reserve announces its decision on 28 October at 18:00 UTC, six hours after PPG's call. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September in a 12 to 0 vote, and prediction markets put a further quarter-point rise at roughly two thirds as of 29 September, with futures pricing about 4.2% by December. PPG sells into housing, construction, cars and industrial production, all of which are rate-sensitive, so the Fed moves this stock on its own account, and it moves it after PPG has finished speaking. Alphabet is expected to report on 27 October, and Microsoft and Meta Platforms are expected on 28 October. Those three dates are expected rather than confirmed by the companies. Three of the largest companies in the index reporting inside the same 48 hours sets the mood of the whole market and takes analyst and media attention away from a coatings company valued near $24 billion. Oil is the third thing, and it is not scheduled. The standoff over the Strait of Hormuz is being negotiated in public and a headline either way moves crude within a session. For this stock a crude headline is a direct input cost headline. What this means for you. Do not read the 28 October close as the market's verdict on PPG, because the last two hours of it belong to the Fed and the evening belongs to Microsoft and Meta. If you want the clean reaction, look at the move between the 27 October close and the 28 October open, which is the only part that is purely about PPG. And expect a thinner audience than usual for the call, which cuts both ways: a good quarter gets less credit, and a soft guidance line gets less immediate punishment and more of a slow drift.

Expected price move and durationiHow far the share price may move because of this event, and how long that move may last.

Options-Implied Move I cannot confirm this. I could not obtain reliable option quotes for the expiry covering 30 October 2026, so this card states no options-implied move. The historical figures and my own estimate below do not depend on it. A straddle prices the size of a move and not its direction, so an options figure would not have agreed or disagreed with the negative call in any case. Historical Event Analysis Four comparable events, each one a PPG quarterly report released after the close, measured on the next full session from daily bars. Third quarter 2025, released 28 October 2025. The stock closed at $105.31 that day and $99.13 the next, a fall of 5.87%, on volume of 3.4 million shares against a normal day of about 1.7 million. Fourth quarter and full year 2025, released 27 January 2026. The stock closed at $110.28 and then $113.96, a rise of 3.34%, having opened 4.18% higher. Volume was 5.7 million shares. First quarter 2026, released 28 April 2026. The stock closed at $107.68 and then $104.69, a fall of 2.78%. This one is worth weighing, because PPG had pre-announced on 20 April that the quarter would beat its guidance and the shares still fell when the detail arrived. Second quarter 2026, released 28 July 2026. The stock closed at $119.01 and then $111.83, a fall of 6.03%, having opened 3.55% lower. Volume was 4.1 million shares. Adjusted earnings of $2.23 missed the $2.25 consensus by two cents while revenue beat. Historical Average Move Four events, with moves of -5.87%, +3.34%, -2.78% and -6.03%. Those add to 18.02 percentage points of absolute movement, and 18.02 divided by 4 is 4.505, so the average absolute reaction is ±4.5%. The sign is written as ± because the past reactions went both ways. Three of the four were falls and the two most recent were both falls, which is a tilt rather than a rule. Our Expected Move -3% to -7% over the first full session and the one after it. That sits just below the ±4.5% historical average in size and it takes a side, which the historical figure does not. It is weighted to the downside because two things are true now that were not true at any of those four reports: a feedstock shock arrived after the guidance was set, and the Federal Reserve decides rates on the same day. It is not wider still because the valuation is already low and the guidance floor is soft, so a full guidance cut is not the base case. Impact Strength Medium. This is a margin and language event at a company whose sales are growing, not a solvency or franchise event. It changes the 2027 earnings estimate by cents rather than by dollars. Estimated Duration 1 to 3 trading days for the reaction itself. If management withdraws or softens the cost-coverage commitment, the repricing runs longer, because that commitment is the basis of the second-half margin expansion the whole 2026 guidance rests on.

Result needed for a big moveiWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.

A fall of more than 7% needs the full-year range cut rather than narrowed, or an explicit statement that the fourth quarter will not reach full cost recovery. A rise of more than 5% needs two things together: third-quarter adjusted earnings above $2.35, and management repeating the 100% cost-coverage commitment for the fourth quarter without qualification while Brent sits in the 100 dollar range. The second of those is a high bar, and it is why the upside case is the smaller one.

Possible outcomesiThe main ways the event could turn out, with the expected stock reaction for each one.

Positive. Earnings above $2.35, organic growth at the mid single-digit end, cost coverage reaffirmed without hedging, full-year range left untouched. Expected stock reaction, a rise of 4% to 7%. Probability, roughly 20%. Neutral. Earnings within a few cents of $2.26, organic growth inside the guided range, guidance reaffirmed with cautious new language about fourth-quarter input costs. Expected stock reaction, a move between -2% and +2% that is then swamped by the Fed. Probability, roughly 25%. Negative. Earnings in line or a little short, and the full-year range narrowed into its lower half or the cost-coverage timing pushed into 2027. Expected stock reaction, a fall of 3% to 7%. Probability, roughly 45%. Severe negative. A cut to the full-year range. Expected stock reaction, a fall of 8% to 12%. Probability, roughly 10%.

Other affected stocksiOther companies that could move on the same news, such as suppliers and competitors.

SHW, the largest coatings company in the United States and the closest read-across on architectural demand and raw material commentary. AXTA, whose automotive refinish and industrial exposure overlaps PPG's most directly and which is in the middle of a merger with AkzoNobel. RPM, which sells coatings and sealants into construction and reports on a different calendar, so its commentary arrives at different times. CC and TROX, two titanium dioxide producers that sit on the other side of PPG's cost line, so what is bad for PPG's margin can be good for theirs.

What the market may be missingiSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.

Two things. The first is the new chief financial officer. Jamie Beggs became senior vice president and chief financial officer on 6 July 2026, when Vincent Morales retired. The 28 October call is only her second quarter in the seat, and it is the one where she has to decide whether to stand behind a cost-recovery timetable her predecessor set under a raw material assumption that no longer holds. A new finance chief has more freedom to reset expectations early than one who has owned the number for years, and less to lose by doing it. The market is modelling the company's guidance. It may not be modelling who now owns it. The second is that the quarter and the guidance measure different worlds. The third quarter closed on 30 September, before the worst of the crude move. So a good print and a cautious outlook can arrive in the same release, and a reader watching only the earnings headline will see a beat while the stock falls. That mismatch is the most likely shape of the day.

Main risksiWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.

The overall risk level is Medium. The largest risk to this analysis is that PPG simply repeats its commitment and the market believes it. The company has covered about 90% of its cost inflation already and has a real record on pricing, so a clean reaffirmation is a live possibility rather than a remote one. If it comes, the low valuation gives the shares room to rally and this call is wrong quickly. The second risk is the oil price itself, and it has grown. The standoff over the Strait of Hormuz could still ease before 27 October. It no longer has to: on 2 October the G7 agreed to sell up to 100 million barrels of emergency crude and diesel through the International Energy Agency over four months, with diesel frontloaded into the first 20 days, and US diesel futures fell 5.6% on the announcement. Brent closed the week at $102.25. A four month release is not an agreement, but it removes part of the cost premise of this card while the report is still weeks away. The third risk is the Fed, and it is larger than when this was written. A dovish surprise at 18:00 UTC on 28 October would lift rate-sensitive cyclicals as a group and could turn a negative PPG reaction into a flat close. After September payrolls came in at 29,000 on 2 October, a hold is 77% priced and a rise 17%, so the dovish outcome is no longer the surprise. It is the expectation. The fourth risk is the low bar. The bottom of the full-year range already allows a fourth quarter below last year's, so management can sound cautious without formally cutting anything, and the market may treat that as no news at all.

Other factorsiAnything else worth knowing that the sections above do not cover.

The share count is falling, down 2.53% over the last year, but repurchases have slowed sharply to $175 million in the first half of 2026 at a company valued near $24 billion. That is a buyback too small to support the stock through a bad print, so do not count on it as a cushion.

Trend over 6 to 12 monthsiWhich way the share price has been heading over the past year, and how far it has travelled.

Sideways over twelve months and falling over three. The stock is up 2.97% over the last twelve months, which is close to flat, and the path inside that year was wide. The highest close in the window was $133.43 on 12 February 2026 and the lowest was $93.39 on 19 November 2025. It is up 3.07% over six months and down 11.50% over three, so the whole twelve-month gain was made in the spring and has been given back since midsummer.

Recent price actioniWhat the shares have done over the last few weeks and sessions, and on what kind of volume.

Down 5.69% over the last month. The last three weeks have been a tight drift rather than a slide. The stock closed at $105.50 on 11 September and at $107.01 on 28 September, moving inside a band of roughly $103.70 to $108.00 for twelve straight sessions. The one single-day jump in that stretch was 22 September, when it closed 2.71% higher at $107.77. Volume has been ordinary at about 1.5 to 1.7 million shares a day, with one exception: 18 September traded 4.1 million shares, which was the quarterly index and options expiry rather than company news. Right now the stock sits 34.0% of the way up its 52-week range, so it is nearer the low end than the high end.

Market structureiThe shape of the chart. Rising highs and rising lows mean an uptrend, falling ones mean a downtrend, and neither means the price is stuck in a range.

A range, not a trend. Lower highs are visible on the long view, since February's $133.43 was not retested in the summer and the July peak near $120.00 was not retested in September. But the last three weeks have made neither a new low nor a breakout, so on the near view this is a stock trading in a band between roughly $103.70 and $108.00. Put simply, a stock that keeps finding buyers at 104 dollars and keeps stalling at 108 dollars is trading in a 104 to 108 range, and that is what PPG has been doing since the middle of September. This report is the most likely thing to end it.

Support and resistance zonesiPrice areas where buyers have stepped in before, and price areas where sellers have. They often slow the price down when it gets there again.

The first support is $103.70 to $104.10. It was tested four times in September, on the 14th, 16th, 18th and 21st, and it held every time, which makes it the most meaningful level on the chart. The next support is the $97 to $99 area, which was the base in late October and early November 2025, and below that the 52-week low of $93.39 from 19 November 2025. The first resistance is $107.99 to $108.00, the top of the September band and the high of 22 September. Above that sits the cluster at $111.93 to $111.97, where the 200-day and 50-day averages now almost touch, which makes it a double barrier rather than a single one. Beyond that the July shelf near $117 to $120 is the next real supply. A close below $103.70 on heavy volume would say the September floor has gone and would open the $97 to $99 zone. A close above $112.00 would say the averages have been reclaimed and would turn the bias neutral at once.

50-day and 200-day moving averagesiThe average closing price over the last 50 days and the last 200 days. Where the price sits against them shows whether the recent trend is strong or fading.

The 50-day average is $111.97 and the 200-day average is $111.93. A moving average is simply the average closing price over that many days, so it shows where a stock has typically traded recently rather than where it is now. The price is below both, by 4.43% against the 50-day and 4.39% against the 200-day. The 50-day is falling, pulled down by the summer decline, and the 200-day is close to flat. The detail that matters is the gap between them, which is 4 cents. The 50-day is still above the 200-day, but only just, and it is falling toward it. When a falling 50-day crosses below a flat 200-day, that arrangement is usually read as the medium-term trend giving way to the longer one. On current prices that crossover is days away rather than months, and it will most likely happen in the same week as this report.

Relative strengthiHow this stock has performed against the wider market and against its own sector over the same period.

PPG has lagged both the market and its own sector. Over twelve months it is up 2.97% against 16.35% for the S and P 500, a gap of about 13 percentage points, and against 12.66% for the materials sector exchange traded fund, a gap of about 10 points. Over three months it is down 11.50% against a 3.32% rise for the index and a 2.35% fall for the sector, so it lost about 15 points to the market and 9 to its own peers in a single quarter. One thing has changed in the last month. Over 30 days PPG is down 5.69% while the materials sector is down 7.06%, so the stock has held up better than its sector for the first time in this stretch, while still trailing the index, which fell only 0.71%. That is a small improvement against peers inside a clear longer-term lag, and it is not yet enough to call a turn.

Volume trendiHow many shares are changing hands lately compared with normal. Heavy volume behind a move means more traders agree with it.

Flat and unremarkable. The 20-day average volume is 1,724,040 shares against a 50-day average of 1,682,250, so recent activity is about 2% above the medium-term norm. Volume is confirming nothing in either direction, which fits a stock that has gone sideways for three weeks. In plain words, heavy volume on the way up means many buyers agree with the move, while a drift on ordinary volume like this one means very few people are taking a strong view before the report. Expect that to change sharply on 28 October. Each of the last four reaction days traded between 2.4 and 5.7 million shares, which is roughly 1.5 to 3.4 times a normal day.

VolatilityiHow much the share price swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.

Calm, and calmer than this stock has been recently. The average true range over 14 days is $2.30, which is 2.15% of the price, so a typical day moves a little over two dollars. Realised volatility is 19.05% annualised over the last 14 days against 27.71% over the last 50, so the stock has settled down considerably in the last fortnight. What that means in practice. The market is not currently paying for much movement, so a 5% reaction would be more than twice a normal day's range and would be a genuine repricing rather than noise. A stop placed within two dollars of the entry is inside the daily noise even now, and on the reaction day it would be nowhere near wide enough. Size the position for a move of 5% or more, not for a 2% one.

Long-Term Technical ViewiThe wider chart over years. The big trend, the major price levels and how much the stock swings.

I cannot confirm a reliable five-year price series from the data measured for this card, so this section stays with what is verified. The one-year frame is a band between $93.39 and $133.43, and the stock sits in the lower third of it. The longer picture behind that chart is a business whose revenue was $16,802 million in 2021 and $15,875 million in 2025, so the shares have spent several years without an earnings growth engine underneath them. That is the wider view: a range-bound stock attached to a range-bound business, where the multi-year direction depends on whether margin expansion arrives rather than on any chart pattern.

Technical biasiWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.

Bearish. Three facts drive it. The price is below both the 50-day and 200-day averages, which are within 4 cents of a downward crossover. The stock has lagged the S and P 500 by about 15 percentage points over three months. And a 52-week range position of 34.0% puts it nearer its low than its high. This bias agrees with the negative Expected stock reaction above, so there is no contradiction for you to resolve. Where they differ is in what they rest on. The catalyst call rests on a cost assumption that has broken and a guidance range that can be narrowed. The technical bias rests only on price. If the cost story resolves in PPG's favour, the technical bias is the part that turns first, because it has nothing anchoring it beyond the chart.

What would invalidate this biasiThe price level or chart change that would prove the technical read wrong.

A daily close above $112.00, which would put the price back above both moving averages and cancel the pending crossover, or a close above $108.00 on volume above 2.5 million shares, which would break the September band with conviction behind it. Either would mean the selling pressure that has run since midsummer has finished, and I would move to neutral and treat the $103.70 floor as a confirmed base rather than a level waiting to break.

Technical data timestampiWhen the chart figures above were taken. Markets keep moving, so check live charts before you trade.

All prices, averages, ranges, volumes and volatility figures in this group come from the regular United States session that closed at 20:00 UTC on 28 September 2026, and the returns are measured to that close. Markets move after this is written. Check a live chart and the current level before you place any trade, because a level that is intact today can be gone by the time you read this.

Stock OverviewiThe basic numbers. Price, size of the company, sector, the past year of highs and lows, trading volume and the next earnings date.

Share price 107.01 dollars at 20:00 UTC on 28 September 2026. Market value about $23.8 billion, from 222.30 million shares outstanding at that price. Sector, materials. Industry, specialty chemicals and coatings. The 52-week high is $133.43 on 12 February 2026 and the 52-week low is $93.39 on 19 November 2025. Average daily volume is about 1.72 million shares over the last 20 sessions. The next scheduled earnings date is 27 October 2026, after the close, which PPG has confirmed.

What the company doesiThe business in plain words. What it sells, who buys it, and how the money reaches the company.

PPG makes paint and coatings and sells them to people who put them on something they are making or something they own. There are three businesses. Global Architectural Coatings sells the paint that goes on walls, through its own stores and through builders and dealers, mostly outside the United States after PPG sold its American architectural business. Performance Coatings sells the paint that is sprayed onto a car after a crash, the coatings on aircraft, and protective and marine coatings for bridges, ships and pipelines. Industrial Coatings sells the paint that goes onto a car on the assembly line, and onto appliances, packaging and furniture. Money arrives mostly as repeat orders from manufacturers and distributors rather than as subscriptions or long contracts, which makes revenue steady but not locked in. An everyday example. When a car is built, PPG supplies the factory coating. When that same car is later dented and repaired, PPG has a second chance to supply the body shop. The first sale follows how many cars get built and the second follows how many get damaged, which is why this business tracks industrial activity rather than fashion.

Revenue BreakdowniWhere the money comes from, split by product, by part of the business and by country.

Using the second quarter of 2026, the last reported period, net sales of about $4.5 billion split as follows. Industrial Coatings $1,778 million, about 39% of the total. Performance Coatings $1,619 million, about 36%. Global Architectural Coatings $1,098 million, about 24%. Sales grew 7% in each of the three. Profit is distributed differently from sales. Segment income was $329 million at Performance Coatings, $229 million at Industrial Coatings and $185 million at Global Architectural Coatings. So Performance Coatings produces the largest share of profit on the second largest share of sales, carried by aerospace and by protective and marine coatings. The single largest dependency is Industrial Coatings, which is both the biggest revenue line and the thinnest margin. If car and appliance production slowed, that is where it would show first and worst. I cannot confirm a current split of revenue by country or region from a verified filing, so this card does not state one.

Company GrowthiHow sales, profit, earnings per share and spare cash have changed over the last few years.

Annual revenue in millions of dollars: 16,802 in 2021, 15,614 in 2022, 16,242 in 2023, 15,845 in 2024 and 15,875 in 2025. That is a decline of 5.5% across four years, and part of it reflects businesses PPG sold rather than demand it lost. Reported diluted earnings per share over the same years: $6.01, $4.32, $5.36, $4.75 and $6.94. Operating income in millions: 1,751, 1,676, 2,186, 2,244 and 2,124. Net income in millions: 1,439, 1,026, 1,270, 1,116 and 1,576. Free cash flow in millions: 1,191, 477, 1,895, 699 and 1,163. Read together those four lines say something specific. Revenue has gone nowhere for five years while operating income rose about 21% and reported earnings per share rose about 15%, so every dollar of profit growth came from margin, mix and a shrinking share count rather than from selling more. Free cash flow is the least steady of the four and swings by more than a billion dollars between years, which is working capital rather than profitability. Growth is now speeding up on the top line and stalling on the bottom. The first half of 2026 grew sales 7%, the best stretch in this table, while adjusted earnings per share grew 6% in the first quarter and were only slightly higher year over year in the second. That divergence is the cost inflation this whole card is about.

Earnings PerformanceiThe latest results, whether they beat or missed what the market expected, and what the company says comes next.

The most recent quarter, the second of 2026, produced net sales of $4.5 billion against about $4.37 billion expected, and adjusted earnings of $2.23 against $2.25 expected. Revenue beat, earnings missed by two cents. Reported earnings were $1.96 and net income was $439 million. The pattern across the last four quarters. Third quarter 2025, adjusted $2.22. Fourth quarter 2025, adjusted $1.51, with organic sales up 3%, the best of that year. First quarter 2026, adjusted $1.83, a beat against $1.70 expected and up 6% year over year. Second quarter 2026, adjusted $2.23, a small miss. So PPG beat comfortably in the first quarter and missed narrowly in the second, which is the direction of travel this report has to reverse. Current guidance is full-year 2026 adjusted earnings of $7.70 to $8.10, reaffirmed on 28 July and unchanged from earlier in the year, and third-quarter organic sales growth in a low to mid single-digit range. Full-year 2025 adjusted earnings were $7.58, so the midpoint of guidance is growth of about 4%.

Financial HealthiCash, debt, cash flow and profit margins, and whether the company keeps issuing new shares. Rated Strong, Average or Weak.

Strong. At the end of the second quarter PPG held about $1.6 billion in cash and short-term investments and reported net debt of $5.3 billion, which was $415 million lower than a year earlier. The most recent reported total debt figure is about $7.47 billion against $1.61 billion of cash. Those two debt figures are measured on different bases and at different dates, so treat the company's own net debt number as the cleaner one and the larger figure as the gross obligation. Trailing free cash flow is about $1.41 billion. Gross margin is 41.20% and operating margin 13.15%, with a net profit margin of 9.57%. Margins are the pressure point rather than the strength. The company has told the market it is still recovering cost inflation through price, which is the definition of a margin being defended rather than one widening. The share count is falling, down 2.53% over the last twelve months, which quietly increases each remaining holder's slice. Repurchases have slowed though, to $75 million in the second quarter and $175 million in the first half. Could it survive a bad year without raising money? Yes, comfortably. Free cash flow of about $1.41 billion covers the roughly $630 million annual dividend more than twice over, and the payout ratio is about 42%. This is not a balance sheet that forces management's hand.

ValuationiWhat you pay today for what the company earns, next to its rivals and its own past. Rated Cheap, Fair or Expensive.

The stock trades on about 15.4 times trailing earnings and about 13.0 times forward earnings. The PEG ratio is 1.53 and enterprise value to EBITDA is 10.96, on an enterprise value of about $29.6 billion. Price to sales is 1.45. In plain words, these numbers say how much you pay today for each dollar the company earns. At 13 times forward earnings you are paying about thirteen dollars for each dollar of expected annual profit. Against its peers PPG is at the cheap end of a cheap group and far below the leader. Sherwin-Williams trades at about 28.6 times forward earnings and about 19.6 times EBITDA. RPM International trades at about 17.4 times forward earnings and 12.75 times EBITDA. Axalta is cheaper still at about 10.6 times forward earnings and 9.61 times EBITDA, and it is in the middle of a merger with AkzoNobel, which distorts its multiple. So PPG sits between Axalta and RPM, at roughly half of Sherwin-Williams. I cannot confirm PPG's own precise long-run average multiple from a verified source, so this card does not state one. What is verifiable is that the stock is 20% below its February high while full-year earnings guidance has not been cut, which means the multiple has compressed rather than the earnings. The valuation is Cheap, and it is cheap for a reason the market can name: flat revenue and margins under cost pressure.

ShareholdersiWho owns the company. Big funds, company insiders, and whether ownership sits with only a few holders.

Institutions hold about 90.3% of the shares and insiders about 0.88%. The largest holders are index managers. The Vanguard Group holds about 12.8%, BlackRock about 8.7% and State Street about 5.2%, which is about 26.7% between the three. More than 1,700 institutions have filed holdings. What that concentration means in practice. The top three are index funds, which do not sell on a bad quarter because their holdings track the index rather than a view. So the largest holders are the least likely sellers, and that is a stabiliser. The flip side is that they are not buyers on weakness either, so the marginal price is set by the active minority, which is the part of the register most likely to react to guidance.

Insider ActivityiWhether the people running the company have been buying or selling their own shares lately.

Quiet. The filings verified for 2026 show chairman and chief executive Tim Knavish receiving phantom stock units under the company's deferred compensation plan, 31.4214 units in June 2026 at $121.29 and 35.1445 units in August 2026 at $112.17, leaving him with about 12,737 units. Those are compensation grants rather than open-market purchases, and they carry no signal about his view of the price. No open-market purchases or sales by executives or directors were found in this period. Jamie Beggs filed a Form 3 on becoming chief financial officer on 6 July 2026 reporting no beneficial ownership at that date. The honest reading is an absence of signal rather than a bullish or bearish one. Note the difference that matters. A routine scheduled sale or a compensation grant tells you nothing, while an executive buying shares with their own money in the open market would, and none of that has happened here.

Dividends and BuybacksiCash paid out to shareholders, whether that payment looks safe, and whether the company is buying back its own shares.

PPG pays $2.84 a share a year, a yield of about 2.65% at the current price, and it has raised the dividend for 54 consecutive years. The payout ratio is about 42%, and dividends paid in the first six months of 2026 were $317 million. Against trailing free cash flow of about $1.41 billion the dividend is well covered and is not at risk from one weak quarter. Buybacks have become small. PPG repurchased $75 million of stock in the second quarter and $175 million in the first half. At a company valued near $24 billion that is roughly 0.7% of the shares a year if maintained, which is a token programme rather than a support. I cannot confirm the size or the remaining capacity of the current repurchase authorisation from a verified filing.

Competitive PositioniWho the company competes with, how much of the market it holds, and what it has that rivals do not.

The main competitors are Sherwin-Williams, which leads the United States architectural market, AkzoNobel, Nippon Paint, Axalta in automotive refinish and industrial coatings, RPM in construction coatings and sealants, and BASF in some industrial lines. I cannot confirm current published market share percentages for each, so this card does not state them. What PPG has that rivals do not is the combination of aerospace coatings and automotive original equipment coatings at global scale. Both are qualified businesses. An aircraft or a car model is certified with a specific coating system, and changing supplier means requalification, which takes time and money. That is a genuine switching cost, and it is why the aerospace line has carried Performance Coatings margins through a weak refinish market. What would erode it is consolidation on the other side. AkzoNobel and Axalta are merging, which creates a competitor of comparable global scale in exactly the industrial and refinish lines where PPG is strongest on revenue and weakest on margin. That is the structural change to watch over the next two years.

Future OutlookiWhat sales and profit are expected to do next, and what management has promised.

The company has said full-year 2026 adjusted earnings will be $7.70 to $8.10, that third-quarter organic sales growth will be low to mid single digits, and that it expects to cover 100% of its cost of goods sold inflation with price by the fourth quarter. Analysts expect about $2.26 for the third quarter, which is growth of about 1.8%. My own view, labelled as mine. The top line is in better shape than the market gives it credit for, with six consecutive quarters of organic growth and 7% reported growth in the first half, and the bottom line stays capped until the price and cost lines cross. With crude in the 100 dollar range I expect that crossing to slip into 2027 rather than land in the fourth quarter of 2026. That makes my outlook for the business Neutral rather than negative. This is a delay to margin recovery, not the end of it.

Other Upcoming Company CatalystsiOther events ahead that could move the share price, such as results, launches or approvals, apart from the catalyst this report is built on.

Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results with 2027 guidance, expected in late January 2027 on the evidence that the company reported the equivalent quarter on 27 January 2026, with the date not yet announced. The quarterly dividend declarations, which carry the 54-year raising record. Completion of the AkzoNobel and Axalta merger, which is a competitor event rather than a PPG one but will move the read-across on every coatings stock. Any further portfolio action, since PPG has already sold its American architectural and silicas businesses and runs an active programme of self-help measures. I cannot confirm a scheduled investor day inside the next year.

Long-Term Company RisksiWhat could weaken the business over the coming years, rather than around this one event.

Input cost exposure is the first and it is the one running right now. A business whose main raw materials are made from oil and gas carries an energy price risk it can only manage with a lag, and that lag costs it margin every time crude moves hard. Flat revenue is the second. Five years at roughly $16 billion means every earnings gain has had to come from cost, mix and buybacks, and those levers get shorter each time they are pulled. Consolidation is the third. A merged AkzoNobel and Axalta changes the pricing conversation in industrial and refinish coatings, and PPG's largest segment by sales is also its thinnest by margin, which is the worst place to meet a bigger competitor. Cyclical demand is the fourth. Cars, construction and industrial production turn down together, and the Federal Reserve is currently raising rates into an oil shock, which is the exact policy mix that produces that kind of downturn. The one that worries me most over a multi-year hold is the second. A company can survive cost inflation and can survive a stronger competitor. What it cannot do indefinitely is grow earnings without growing sales, and PPG has now been trying that for five years.

Traderavel VerdictiOur straight answer on the company after everything above, not on the trade. Quality, growth, price, risk and the long-term view.

PPG is a strong business with low growth, a strong balance sheet, a cheap valuation and medium long-term risk, and that combination has been true for a while. The franchise is real. Aerospace and automotive original equipment coatings are qualified, sticky and hard to enter, the dividend has been raised for 54 consecutive years, free cash flow covers it more than twice over, and the company could take a bad year without asking anyone for money. What it does not have is an engine. Revenue has sat near $16 billion since 2021, so every dollar of earnings growth has been manufactured from margin, portfolio moves and a shrinking share count. That works until input costs rise faster than you can price them, which is exactly the position the company is in now. My long-term outlook is Neutral. The shares are cheap enough that patience is likely to be paid, and dull enough that it may take years. This suits income investors who want a rising dividend from a durable industrial business and can sit through a cost cycle without watching the screen. It does not suit anyone looking for growth, momentum, or a stock that will rerate in a quarter. And it does not suit a trader who wants to be paid quickly, because the thing that would rerate PPG is two or three quarters of proof that price has finally caught cost, and no single report can deliver that.