NG result

After the event it went to −2.84% at its lowest, and later to +0.93% at its highest, against the price before EIA weekly natural gas storage report.

The news wasMixed

A 64 Bcf injection was smaller than the seasonal norm and tightened the remaining surplus, which is supportive, but it was almost exactly expected and left stocks 2.4% above the five-year average.

Measured fromChart

EIA reported a 64 Bcf injection, almost exactly the 63 Bcf market estimate. The storage surplus over the five-year average narrowed from 95 Bcf to 79 Bcf, but November gas showed no lasting reaction to an outcome already inside the card's neutral range.

What we said	What happened	Result
Catalyst confidence 97 out of 100: EIA would publish the storage report for the week ending 25 September at 14:30 UTC on 1 October.	Confirmed. EIA released the report in its regular slot and put Lower 48 working gas at 3,415 Bcf after a 64 Bcf injection.	Correct
Expected direction mixed, with no position before the event and the neutral 55 to 70 Bcf outcome described as the most likely single result.	The neutral case occurred. The 64 Bcf injection was almost exactly the published 63 Bcf market estimate, and November gas moved from $2.997 immediately before the report to $2.995 at the end of the reaction window.	Correct
A sub-55 Bcf injection would lift November by $0.06 to $0.14, while one above 70 Bcf would lower it by the same amount.	Neither directional trigger fired. The report printed 64 Bcf, and the $0.002 end-to-end decline was far smaller than the directional range, as the card's neutral scenario implied.	Correct conditional forecast
The market guide was a 63 Bcf injection, below a roughly 78 Bcf five-year norm, so the storage surplus should keep shrinking.	The injection was 64 Bcf. EIA reported 3,415 Bcf in storage, 79 Bcf above the 3,336 Bcf five-year average, down from a 95 Bcf surplus one week earlier.	Correct
The Mountaineer Xpress outage leaned the weekly injection smaller, but a small number could be dismissed as a temporary pipeline effect.	The injection did come in below the seasonal norm, but only 1 Bcf from the market estimate. The report itself does not identify how much of the difference came from the outage, so that attribution cannot be settled from the storage data.	Plausible, not measurable
The storage cushion was shrinking quickly but remained normal, with the winter concern priced more heavily into December and January than November.	EIA still classified stocks within the five-year range and measured them 2.4% above the five-year average. The report therefore confirmed tightening without establishing a shortage, which is the distinction the card made.	Correct
Price-reaction confidence 50 out of 100 because weather forecasts and the pipeline restart could matter more than an in-line storage figure.	That caution was justified. Market reporting described no material reaction to the as-expected injection and attributed the later decline to bearish short-term weather forecasts.	Correct
Impact medium, with a normal reaction of $0.06 to $0.14 and an estimated duration of one to two sessions.	Overstated for the catalyst. The contract finished the measured window only $0.002 below its pre-report price. It did trade down to $2.912 overnight, but the report was in line and contemporaneous reporting tied the drift to weather rather than to a storage surprise.	Overestimated
Technical bias neutral inside a $3.042 to $3.211 band, invalidated by a daily close outside it.	The lower boundary failed. November finished the report day near $2.967 and the reaction window at $2.995, both below $3.042, after reaching $2.912 overnight.	Bias invalidated lower
A result outside 45 to 80 Bcf was needed for a large move.	The 64 Bcf result stayed well inside that band and produced no lasting event move. The forecast correctly ruled out a large storage-driven reaction.	Correct

Price Table	Price (USD per million BTU)	Change from signal	Change from lowest (regular session)	Change from close before EIA weekly natural gas storage report
After signal
Price at analysis28 Sep 2026, 17:52	3.102	—	+5.22%
Lowest price1 Oct 2026, 09:25	2.948	−4.96%	—
Highest price28 Sep 2026, 19:20	3.180	+2.51%	+7.87%
Price before EIA weekly natural gas storage report1 Oct 2026, 14:25	2.997	−3.38%	+1.66%
After EIA weekly natural gas storage report (1 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC)
Price after EIA weekly natural gas storage report1 Oct 2026, 14:30	2.996	−3.42%	+1.63%	−0.03%
Lowest price2 Oct 2026, 06:37	2.912	−6.13%	−1.22%	−2.84%
Highest price2 Oct 2026, 14:36	3.025	−2.48%	+2.61%	+0.93%
Price 24h after EIA weekly natural gas storage report2 Oct 2026, 15:29	2.995	−3.45%	+1.59%	−0.07%
Current price2 Oct 2026, 20:59	3.039	−2.03%	+3.09%	+1.40%

Recorded after the event and not edited since. Past moves are not a forecast of future ones.

NGNatural Gas

Mixed

EIA storage report lands with the natural gas surplus halving in three weeks and the winter premium already in the curve

Event passedThu, 1 Oct 2026, 14:30

Inventories and Stocks

Contract: NG, Natural Gas
PriceWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and the exact minute that price was struck.: $3.102, 17:52 28/September/2026
Event Date And TimeWhen the event is expected. Shown in your own time zone, or in UTC if you switch the clock at the top of the page. If the exact hour is not confirmed, you only see the date.: 14:30 1/October/2026
What else lands that dayOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.: Clear
Expected DirectionWhich way we expect the token price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.: Mixed
Turns positive ifOur call is Mixed, so this is the side that would push the price up, and what has to happen for that side to win.: An injection below 55 Bcf, a third straight week more than 20 below the five year average, taking the surplus toward 70 Bcf.
Turns negative ifOur call is Mixed, so this is the side that would push the price down, and what has to happen for that side to win.: An injection above 70 Bcf, close to the five year norm, saying the outage and the late September heat did less than the market assumed.
Technical biasWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.: Neutral
ActionWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.: Watch
Catalyst confidenceHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.: 100/100
Price-reaction confidenceHow sure we are that the token moves the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.: 85/100

Expected move and duration

Our expected moveOur own estimate of the move, after weighing the market's estimate, the past moves and the situation now.: An injection below 55 Bcf lifts it $0.06 to $0.14 per million BTU, which is +1.9% to +4.5%. One above 70 Bcf takes it down $0.06 to $0.14, which is -1.9% to -4.5%.
ImpactHow big we think that move is for this stock. Rated Low, Medium or High.: Medium
Estimated durationHow long the move is likely to last, such as intraday, a few trading days, or several weeks.: 1 to 2 sessions

Market expectationsWhat most traders currently expect to happen. Bullish means they expect a rise, Bearish a fall, Neutral neither.: Bullish
Priced-in levelHow much of this news the share price already reflects. Rated Low, Medium or High. The higher it is, the less room the price has left to move.: Medium
Risk levelHow much can go wrong with this idea if the event surprises. Rated Low, Medium or High.: Medium
Other affected contracts: Heating Oil (HO) , WTI Crude Oil (CL)

Chart

Momentum: Neutral
VolatilityHow much the share price swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.: Normal

Supply and demand

Inventory levelHow much of the physical commodity is sitting in storage, compared with what is normal for the time of year. Tight means there is less than usual, which supports the price.: Normal
Inventory trend: Building
Spread structureWhether the market pays more for the commodity today than for delivery in a few months. Backwardation means today costs more, which is what a market short of supply looks like. Contango is the opposite, and it means holding a long position slowly costs you money.: Contango
Production trend: Stable
Demand trend: Weakening
Managed money positioningWhether speculative traders are mostly betting the price rises or falls, from the weekly CFTC report. A crowded bet often means a smaller move than expected on good news, because most buyers have already bought.: Short-heavy
Seasonality: Unsupportive
Dollar effect: Neutral

This catalyst

Export capacity: Constrained
Weather risk: Normal

Upcoming catalystThe event that could move the share price.

The Energy Information Administration published its Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending 25 September at 14:30 UTC on 1 October 2026. Working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states rose 64 billion cubic feet to 3,415 billion, which is 79 above the five year average and 138 below the same week a year earlier. The estimate going in was 63. The event is complete.

Event date and timeWhen the event is expected. Shown in your own time zone, or in UTC if you switch the clock at the top of the page. If the exact hour is not confirmed, you only see the date.

1 October 2026, 14:30 UTC, which is 10:30 in the morning in Washington, the report's regular Thursday slot.

Main contract affected

Natural Gas (NG) on NYMEX, November 2026 delivery. The October contract stops trading on 28 September, three business days before its delivery month, so November is the front month on the day of the report and every figure on this card refers to November. The December contract was the alternative and is rejected: it carries more of the winter story, but November is the contract the feed quotes and the one the storage number moves first.

Current priceWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.

$3.102 as of 28 Sept 2026, 17:52 UTC

Expected directionWhich way we expect the token price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Mixed, and that is how it resolved. The injection came in at 64 billion cubic feet against an estimate of 63, one away from the middle of the band this card drew between 55 and 70, so neither threshold was reached and neither tail was paid. The front month traded between about $2.98 and $3.01 afterwards, a little below the $3.102 the card quotes, and the move it did make belongs to forecasts for a mild winter rather than to the report. A print in the middle of a symmetric band producing no directional move is the outcome a mixed call describes.

Action before the eventWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Nothing about Thursday calls for a position in either direction. What is worth settling beforehand is which contract the answer is really about. The storage cushion has been shrinking quickly, but that is a winter question, and November is the last shoulder month before the heating season.

Why it mattersHow the event reaches the price. Through demand, supply, how much the network is used, fees, or the rules the token trades under.

Storage entered September well above its five year average and has been losing that cushion every week since, because injections have run below normal. Another small injection says winter starts tighter than the price implies. A large one says the late September pipeline outage and the heat were passing events.

Catalyst confidenceHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

The event has happened. The Energy Information Administration published the report at 14:30 UTC on 1 October 2026, on its weekly schedule. Confidence that the event occurs: 100%.

Price-reaction confidenceHow sure we are that the token moves the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

High, because the reaction has happened and there was almost none of it. The 64 billion cubic foot injection was one above the estimate, the price moved less than two percent either side of $3.00 afterwards, and what movement there was came from the weather outlook rather than the number. The surplus to the five year average is now 79 billion cubic feet, so the halving this card described has not reversed. Confidence in the reaction: 85%.

Expected moveHow far we think the price moves, and how long the move may last.

An injection below 55 billion cubic feet lifts November by $0.06 to $0.14 per million BTU, which is 1.9% to 4.5%. One above 70 billion cubic feet takes it down by the same $0.06 to $0.14, or 1.9% to 4.5%. The average true range over fourteen days is $0.117, or 3.75% of the price, so the move runs from half a normal day to a little over one. It should last a session or two, because the next report is a week away and weather forecasts move this contract every day in between.

What exactly is happeningThe event itself in full. Who is involved, what changes, and the amounts and conditions that matter.

The EIA surveys operators of underground storage every week and publishes the net change in working gas, the gas that can actually be withdrawn, by region and for the Lower 48 as a whole. From April to early November the number is an injection, gas going into storage for the winter. The market compares it with its own expectation, with the same week a year earlier and with the five year average. The week ending 25 September includes two days of an unplanned outage. TC Energy's Columbia Gas Transmission declared force majeure, meaning it could not honour firm transport contracts, after a leak on its Mountaineer Xpress line in West Virginia, affecting up to 1.8 billion cubic feet a day of Appalachian supply. The force majeure was in effect through 28 September. Gas that cannot leave Appalachia is gas that does not reach storage elsewhere, so the outage leans this week's number smaller.

Market expectationsWhat most traders currently expect to happen. Bullish means they expect a rise, Bearish a fall, Neutral neither.

The broad analyst surveys are usually published the day before the report, and none had appeared at the time of writing. The one published estimate found is NGI's, at an injection of 63 billion cubic feet, 10 more than the week before. That is a single forecaster rather than a consensus, and it is treated here as a guide. The benchmarks behind it are measured. The same week averaged an injection of about 78 billion cubic feet across 2021 to 2025, computed from the EIA's weekly series, and last year's was 52. The last two reports were 44 and 53 billion cubic feet, and the 53 on 24 September landed inside a survey range of 51 to 54. So the market expects another injection below the seasonal norm, which means another week of a shrinking surplus.

How much is already priced inHow much of the expected outcome the share price already reflects before the event happens.

The tightening is priced in the winter months far more than in November. November is near the bottom of its year. It sits 12.1% of the way up a 52 week range of $2.896 to $4.642, and it has given back the whole of the jump on the outage: it closed at $3.370 on 24 September, up 6.88% on the day of the last report and the force majeure together, and is 7.9% below that close now. The winter contracts tell a different story. December trades $0.349 above November and January $0.732 above it, which is 23.6% more for gas delivered in the coldest month. That premium is where the market is keeping its view that storage will matter this winter. Positioning leans short. The CFTC report for 22 September shows managed money, meaning hedge funds and other speculators, long 266,563 contracts and short 332,110, with 32,457 shorts covered in the week of the outage. Around the report before that, on 17 September, a 44 billion cubic foot injection moved November up just 0.86%.

What else lands that dayOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

Nothing else of weight for this contract. The ISM manufacturing survey lands at 14:00 UTC, half an hour earlier, and says little about gas. The weather forecasts that update through the day, and news on when the Mountaineer Xpress line returns to full service, matter more to this price than any other release. The day is clear.

Bullish scenarioWhat would have to happen for the price to rise, and why the market would read it that way.

An injection below 55 billion cubic feet, which would be the third week in a row more than 20 below the five year average. The surplus falls toward 70 billion cubic feet, the short side covers further, and November rises $0.06 to $0.14, which is 1.9% to 4.5%, with December and January rising more.

Neutral scenarioThe outcome that simply meets expectations and moves the price very little.

An injection between 55 and 70 billion cubic feet, close to NGI's 63. The surplus shrinks by about as much as expected, and the session is decided by the weather maps and the pipeline restart instead. This is the most likely single outcome.

Bearish scenarioWhat would have to happen for the price to fall. A delay, a disappointment, or supply nobody expected.

An injection above 70 billion cubic feet, close to the five year norm. It would say the outage and the late September heat did less than the market assumed, and November falls $0.06 to $0.14, which is 1.9% to 4.5%, back toward the bottom of its August to September range.

Result needed for a big moveWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.

A number outside 45 to 80 billion cubic feet. Below 45 would erase most of the remaining five year surplus in a single week and put the 24 September high of $3.395 back in play. Above 80 would reverse three weeks of tightening at once and send November toward the $2.896 low of 17 August.

Other contracts affected

Heating Oil (HO), little direct effect, since it trades on distillate stocks with its own report a day earlier. WTI Crude Oil (CL), no meaningful effect. Gas and crude share no inventory and the crude market is being set by the Strait of Hormuz. No other contract on this site trades on US gas storage, which is part of why the card stays on one.

Main risksWhat could go wrong, and what would prove this call wrong.

Medium risk overall. The first risk is that weather forecasts, which update several times a day, move this contract more than any single storage number. The second is that the outage makes this week's figure harder to read: a small injection may be dismissed as a one-off because it was caused by a pipeline that is being repaired. The third is that November is a shoulder month, and a bullish number about winter supply can lift December and January while leaving November behind.

What the market may be missingSomething we think investors have overlooked or read wrong.

The storage surplus is disappearing faster than the front month reflects, and the shape of the curve is why. On 4 September working gas was 3,254 billion cubic feet, 157 above the five year average for that week computed from the EIA's series. By 18 September it was 3,351, only 95 above. That is 62 billion cubic feet of cushion lost in two weeks, because injections of 44 and 53 came in against five year averages of about 73 in each of those weeks. At NGI's 63 against an average near 78, another 15 goes this week. Storage is still 2.9% above normal, so there is no shortage, but a surplus that halves in three weeks is a trend rather than a reading. The market has put that view into December and January rather than November. That is reasonable, because November is still mostly injection season and early October usually brings the largest injections of the year. But it means that whichever way Thursday surprises, November is the part of the curve least likely to carry it. A reader watching November can be right about the storage number and see the move land a month further out. The second thing is the export side. LNG feedgas, the gas going to export terminals, was running at 18.7 billion cubic feet a day on 24 September, with the Cove Point terminal in maintenance until about mid-October. When Cove Point returns, that demand comes back just as the heating season starts, which is another reason the tightening shows up in the winter months first.

TrendWhether the price is above or below its own 50-day and 200-day averages. Above both is an uptrend, below both is a downtrend.

Down over the long run and flat over the short. November is down 23.99% over 252 sessions and 14.64% over 120, but up 2.41% over twenty, having spent August and September in a range.

Market structureThe shape of the chart. Rising highs and rising lows mean an uptrend, falling ones mean a downtrend, and neither means the price is stuck in a range.

A range from $2.896 to about $3.150 through August and most of September, broken upward on 22 to 24 September with a high of $3.395 on the outage, and now back inside it. The breakout failed within two sessions, so the range is still the structure that matters.

Support and resistancePrices where buyers have stepped in before, and prices where sellers have. A price often stalls or turns at these.

Support first at the 20 day moving average of $3.071, 1.10% below the current price, and the 50 day at $3.042, 2.03% below. Under those are the September low of $2.902, 6.54% below, and the August low of $2.896. Resistance is the 100 day moving average at $3.211, 3.41% above, then the 24 September high at $3.395, 9.34% above, and the 200 day at $3.518, 13.30% above.

VolumeWhether trading is picking up or dying down. Rising volume behind a price move means more people agree with it.

Heavy and rising as November became the front month. Twenty session average volume is 160,782 contracts against 87,012 over sixty, and the heaviest session was 24 September at 400,437, the day of the outage and the last storage report.

RSI and momentumWhether the price has been rising or falling hard lately, and whether that push is getting stronger or running out.

RSI(14) is 51.5, neutral. The outage spike and its reversal have left the indicator where it started.

Moving averagesThe average price over the last 20, 50, 100 and 200 days. Trading above them is generally a healthy sign, below them a weak one.

Mixed. The price sits just above the 20 day at $3.071 and the 50 day at $3.042 and below the 100 day at $3.211 and the 200 day at $3.518. The longer averages above the shorter ones say the longer trend is still down.

VolatilityHow much the share price swings day to day right now, compared with how much it usually swings.

Normal for natural gas, which is the most volatile contract on this site. The average true range over fourteen days is $0.117, or 3.75% of the price, and realised volatility over 30 sessions is 36.1% annualised. A five percent day is ordinary here.

Breakout and breakdown levels

A close above $3.211 would put November back above its 100 day and reopen the 24 September high. A close below $3.042 would take it under the 50 day and toward the bottom of the range around $2.902.

Technical biasWhat the chart alone suggests, ignoring the news. Rated Bullish, Neutral or Bearish.

Neutral. A failed breakout, RSI in the middle, the price between the short and long averages and inside a two month range.

What would invalidate this biasThe price level or chart change that would prove the technical read wrong.

A daily close outside the $3.042 to $3.211 band.

Inventory levelHow much of the physical commodity is sitting in storage, compared with what is normal for the time of year. Tight means there is less than usual, which supports the price.

Normal. Working gas was 3,351 billion cubic feet on 18 September, 2.9% above the five year average of 3,256 and 4.2% below the 3,497 of a year earlier.

Inventory trend

Building, as it does every September, but more slowly than normal. The last two injections were 44 and 53 billion cubic feet against five year averages of about 73 each, and the surplus to the average fell from 157 to 95 billion cubic feet over those two weeks.

Spread structureWhether the market pays more for the commodity today than for delivery in a few months. Backwardation means today costs more, which is what a market short of supply looks like. Contango is the opposite, and it means holding a long position slowly costs you money.

Contango through the winter. December is $0.349 above November and January $0.732 above it, 23.6% more, before the curve falls away into spring, when April 2027 trades $2.687. The premium is in the heating months, which is where the market expects the tightness to show.

Production trend

Stable. Output was about 109.1 billion cubic feet a day on 24 September after a revision to 109.8, with a constraint on the Braxton gathering system holding back about 0.6 billion cubic feet a day in the Northeast, on top of the Mountaineer Xpress outage.

Demand trend

Weakening, seasonally. The late September heat has eased and the shoulder weeks between cooling and heating demand are the lowest of the year for gas burned in power plants. Exports hold the total up, with Mexican pipeline exports at 7.7 billion cubic feet a day.

Managed money positioningWhether speculative traders are mostly betting the price rises or falls, from the weekly CFTC report. A crowded bet often means a smaller move than expected on good news, because most buyers have already bought.

Short-heavy, less so than a week earlier. On 22 September managed money held 266,563 longs against 332,110 shorts in NYMEX natural gas, against open interest of 1,837,146, after covering 32,457 shorts in the week.

Seasonality

Unsupportive for November. Early October is the heart of the shoulder season, when heating and cooling demand are both low and injections usually run largest. The seasonal help for this contract arrives in November itself, after this report.

Dollar effect

Neutral. US natural gas is priced and consumed mostly at home, and the dollar has little bearing on it.

Weather risk

Normal. Warmth late in September has faded and the next swing factor is the first cold of the heating season, which weather models will start to show during October. That is the variable most likely to overwhelm a storage number on any given day.

Pipeline and export capacity

Constrained. The Mountaineer Xpress force majeure took up to 1.8 billion cubic feet a day of Appalachian supply off the market from 24 September and was in effect through 28 September. On the export side, LNG feedgas was 18.7 billion cubic feet a day on 24 September with Cove Point in maintenance until about mid-October.

For information only · not financial advice.

Expected move and duration

Chart

Supply and demand

This catalyst

Upcoming catalystiThe event that could move the share price.

Event date and timeiWhen the event is expected. Shown in your own time zone, or in UTC if you switch the clock at the top of the page. If the exact hour is not confirmed, you only see the date.

Main contract affected

Current priceiWhere the shares traded when this write-up was made, and when that was.

Expected directioniWhich way we expect the token price to go after the event. Positive means it rises, Negative means it falls, Mixed means it could go either way.

Action before the eventiWhat we suggest you do before the event. Buy, Watch or Avoid.

Why it mattersiHow the event reaches the price. Through demand, supply, how much the network is used, fees, or the rules the token trades under.

Catalyst confidenceiHow sure we are that the event happens as described. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

Price-reaction confidenceiHow sure we are that the token moves the way we expect. Scored out of 100. Higher means more sure.

Expected moveiHow far we think the price moves, and how long the move may last.

What exactly is happeningiThe event itself in full. Who is involved, what changes, and the amounts and conditions that matter.

Market expectationsiWhat most traders currently expect to happen. Bullish means they expect a rise, Bearish a fall, Neutral neither.

How much is already priced iniHow much of the expected outcome the share price already reflects before the event happens.

What else lands that dayiOther news and events on the same day that could push the price around, and whether they help this trade, bury it, or work against it.

Bullish scenarioiWhat would have to happen for the price to rise, and why the market would read it that way.

Neutral scenarioiThe outcome that simply meets expectations and moves the price very little.

Bearish scenarioiWhat would have to happen for the price to fall. A delay, a disappointment, or supply nobody expected.

Result needed for a big moveiWhat the outcome has to be for the stock to move a lot instead of a little.